Post by debot tigers on Jul 9, 2023 21:17:30 GMT -5
Texas Rangers (97-65, AL West 1st) vs. Kansas City Royals (102-61, AL Central 1st)
Let's get to the elephant in the room which is KC's record vs Texas: 1-6. And while it is a small sampling size we are going to name the elephant Dalton Vargas. You could probably give the elephant a middle name while we are at it: TJ Zeuch. We should just dig into Dalton TJ Vargas and how the Royals can shed this skin. We could argue broad semantics, but arguably on paper this would normally be KC series to win or lose based on their home field advantage, playoff pedigree and superior record. That is no slight on the Rangers; they've played well and earned their place in this series. We just simply can't overlook this anomaly that shines a bright light on the Royals, so let's explore.....
Texas pitching vs. KC Hitting
11. This is how many runs KC scored against Texas in last 6 games. KC should just concede their Royal crown if they are going to produce like this. Dalton has hit .231 with an OPS of .759 vs Texas this year. Vargas is almost identical with a slight tick higher. These two need to be at very least average for the Royals to take this series. Dalton has performed close to standards so far in playoffs (.286/.842OPS). Vargas struggled against Cleveland and needs to find his ryhthm.
Outside of this duo, Jonathan Bakos performed well this year with a WAR of 4, but he too struggled against Cleveland. (.217/.512OPS). Bakos however fared well during the 7 games against Texas with a .273/972OPS. Other hopefuls during this 7 game stint? Not a lot. KC hit .253/.767OPS over the season. Vs Texas? .212/.596OPS. a few players did squeak out decent numbers against Texas this year. Guenette batted .318/.693OPS, Sanchez hit similarily at .286/.708OPS. The rest of the squad have underwhelming numbers during their games against Texas this year.
The */Outlier? Noneother than TJ Hardman. His line of .412/1.356OPS 2HR 8RBI made him the MVP hitter against Texas.
It is not all dire for KC Hitters. Let's segue to Texas pitchers and see what promise can be found for KC. It could bode well in game 1 for KC as historically their players have good career numbers against Hernandez. All that said, Hernandez started 2 games against KC this year and pitched well (13IP/2.7 ERA). Frankly the rest of the squad pitched stellar against KC this season so we don't need to dig too much into these stats (2.76ERA over 7 games) If Texas pitches like this again, it will be a short series. If we back up and look at career numbers outside of Hernandez KC has actually hit satisfactory vs Texas pitchers traditionally. Let's graph shall we a small Career sampling:
As evident, KC has in past found some success against Texas and if they can rekindle their touch they may prevail. For Texas they can't rest on their laurels and hope their seasonal success will continue. Do they pitch to the big 2? or pitch around? Or hope that they continue to be mediocre. We'd be remiss aswell not too mention that Texas hitters bailed out the pitchers last round. Texas gave up 7 runs per game against Toronto. That simply won't work against the strongest pitching staff in AL who kept a tough hitting Cleveland at bay.
KC pitching vs. Texas hitting
Texas is firing on all cylinders. They scored 47 runs against the Toronto Argonauts/Blue Jays. If this trend continues it bodes well for Texas. Some of the standouts include: Series MVP Catcher Meija .560 Avg/1.457OPS, unsung SS Garcia batting out of his weight class .409/1.045OPS, Weyer .286/976 with 3HR/9RBI. And this with Goode being okay, and same with Gestoso. It must be disconcerting for KC to see production across the board against a strong pitching squad in Toronto. Let's excel a bit more into the career hitting stats shall we:
It's a mixed bag and kind of not the stifling numbers you'd expect from a KC staff. And missing Alexander and Chassagne will hurt KC. Both pitchers have fared modestly well historically against Texas. I hope my TJ Zeuch elephant metaphor is clearly illuminated. TJ could be the lynch pin of this series for KC, especially if he ends up starting twice. If KC pitches like they can, and did against Cleveland it will make it very tough for Texas.
*/Outliers. Joe White. This deadline acquistion struggled profoundly to adjust to his new team and had a -.02 WAR with Texas. He surged and showed some kick against Toronto with a line of: .385/1.000OPS. He produced a higher WAR of .03 in 6 games than his 2 months of regular season. Way to go Joe!
Fielding
Kc has to have the edge here and can possibly win/manipulate this benefit. Texas has above average defensive metrics but KC is strong throughout and a notch or two above. KC's is a predominantly LH lineup and this can expose the mediocre defense at 3B/SS/LF.
KC ZR at these 3 positions is about 14 while Texas is a lowly -4.
Questions
Will pratto prevail and play through his injury?
Will Texas road record of 41-40 continue and hinder them?
Will KC try and take advantage of Texas and their weaker performance vs Lefties?
Prediction:
I can't look past the pitching injuries for KC and the success Texas has had against KC this year. That said KC played their ball against Cleveland and will eek this out in 7 games.
Let's get to the elephant in the room which is KC's record vs Texas: 1-6. And while it is a small sampling size we are going to name the elephant Dalton Vargas. You could probably give the elephant a middle name while we are at it: TJ Zeuch. We should just dig into Dalton TJ Vargas and how the Royals can shed this skin. We could argue broad semantics, but arguably on paper this would normally be KC series to win or lose based on their home field advantage, playoff pedigree and superior record. That is no slight on the Rangers; they've played well and earned their place in this series. We just simply can't overlook this anomaly that shines a bright light on the Royals, so let's explore.....
Texas pitching vs. KC Hitting
11. This is how many runs KC scored against Texas in last 6 games. KC should just concede their Royal crown if they are going to produce like this. Dalton has hit .231 with an OPS of .759 vs Texas this year. Vargas is almost identical with a slight tick higher. These two need to be at very least average for the Royals to take this series. Dalton has performed close to standards so far in playoffs (.286/.842OPS). Vargas struggled against Cleveland and needs to find his ryhthm.
Outside of this duo, Jonathan Bakos performed well this year with a WAR of 4, but he too struggled against Cleveland. (.217/.512OPS). Bakos however fared well during the 7 games against Texas with a .273/972OPS. Other hopefuls during this 7 game stint? Not a lot. KC hit .253/.767OPS over the season. Vs Texas? .212/.596OPS. a few players did squeak out decent numbers against Texas this year. Guenette batted .318/.693OPS, Sanchez hit similarily at .286/.708OPS. The rest of the squad have underwhelming numbers during their games against Texas this year.
The */Outlier? Noneother than TJ Hardman. His line of .412/1.356OPS 2HR 8RBI made him the MVP hitter against Texas.
It is not all dire for KC Hitters. Let's segue to Texas pitchers and see what promise can be found for KC. It could bode well in game 1 for KC as historically their players have good career numbers against Hernandez. All that said, Hernandez started 2 games against KC this year and pitched well (13IP/2.7 ERA). Frankly the rest of the squad pitched stellar against KC this season so we don't need to dig too much into these stats (2.76ERA over 7 games) If Texas pitches like this again, it will be a short series. If we back up and look at career numbers outside of Hernandez KC has actually hit satisfactory vs Texas pitchers traditionally. Let's graph shall we a small Career sampling:
| Pastrano | ORourke | Der | Baffin | Hernandez | |
| Dalton | 0/4 | 2/8 | 3/6 | 2/19 | 5/14 |
| Vargas | 2/12 | 2/7 | 3/5 | 4/11 | 3/10 |
| Bakos | 3/10 | 0/5 | 2/6 | 4/11 | 3/11 |
| Guenette | 2/15 | 1/2 | 2/5 | 6/13 | 6/13 |
| Edwards | 1/15 | 0/5 | 2/9 | 5/10 | 5/10 |
| Sanchez | 0/3 | 2/9 | 1/4 | 2/5 | 2/5 |
As evident, KC has in past found some success against Texas and if they can rekindle their touch they may prevail. For Texas they can't rest on their laurels and hope their seasonal success will continue. Do they pitch to the big 2? or pitch around? Or hope that they continue to be mediocre. We'd be remiss aswell not too mention that Texas hitters bailed out the pitchers last round. Texas gave up 7 runs per game against Toronto. That simply won't work against the strongest pitching staff in AL who kept a tough hitting Cleveland at bay.
KC pitching vs. Texas hitting
Texas is firing on all cylinders. They scored 47 runs against the Toronto Argonauts/Blue Jays. If this trend continues it bodes well for Texas. Some of the standouts include: Series MVP Catcher Meija .560 Avg/1.457OPS, unsung SS Garcia batting out of his weight class .409/1.045OPS, Weyer .286/976 with 3HR/9RBI. And this with Goode being okay, and same with Gestoso. It must be disconcerting for KC to see production across the board against a strong pitching squad in Toronto. Let's excel a bit more into the career hitting stats shall we:
| Zeuch | SideBottom | Lehman | Corado | Beyer | ||
| Goode | 4/11 | 1/3 | 4/9 | 1/4 | 1/15 | |
| Gestoso | 6/13 | 1/5 | 8/27 | 0/7 | 0/15 | |
| Pratto | 6/19 | 0/4 | 5/17 | 2/10 | 0/5 | |
| Nova | 7/20 | 1/2 | 1/12 | 4/6 | n/a | |
| Weyer | 3/15 | 2/3 | 0/1 | 1/5 | 3/16 | |
| Meija | 8/26 | 3/5 | 0/10 | 2/8 | 0/2 |
It's a mixed bag and kind of not the stifling numbers you'd expect from a KC staff. And missing Alexander and Chassagne will hurt KC. Both pitchers have fared modestly well historically against Texas. I hope my TJ Zeuch elephant metaphor is clearly illuminated. TJ could be the lynch pin of this series for KC, especially if he ends up starting twice. If KC pitches like they can, and did against Cleveland it will make it very tough for Texas.
*/Outliers. Joe White. This deadline acquistion struggled profoundly to adjust to his new team and had a -.02 WAR with Texas. He surged and showed some kick against Toronto with a line of: .385/1.000OPS. He produced a higher WAR of .03 in 6 games than his 2 months of regular season. Way to go Joe!
Fielding
Kc has to have the edge here and can possibly win/manipulate this benefit. Texas has above average defensive metrics but KC is strong throughout and a notch or two above. KC's is a predominantly LH lineup and this can expose the mediocre defense at 3B/SS/LF.
KC ZR at these 3 positions is about 14 while Texas is a lowly -4.
Questions
Will pratto prevail and play through his injury?
Will Texas road record of 41-40 continue and hinder them?
Will KC try and take advantage of Texas and their weaker performance vs Lefties?
Prediction:
I can't look past the pitching injuries for KC and the success Texas has had against KC this year. That said KC played their ball against Cleveland and will eek this out in 7 games.