Post by Commissioner Erick on Sept 10, 2023 13:41:10 GMT -5
The NL East has been a down division the last few seasons as Washington, New York, and Atlanta have fallen off, allowing Philadelphia a carpeted path to the NLDS. With the Phillies losing a number of key players and the Mets now featuring a star-studded rotation, the top of the division may be so compelling, fans ignore the other three clubs rounding out the quintet.
1) Philadelphia Phillies
2030: 100-62, NL East Champions. Lost to Los Angeles Dodgers 4-3 in NLDS.
Who They Were: The Phillies were an offensive juggernaut who destroyed regular season pitchers, leading the National League in virtually every offensive category. The pitching was merely adequate, but stepped up in the postseason against the Dodgers. Unfortunately, Philadelphia’s hitters didn’t hit in October, getting shutout in Game 7 of the NLDS to leave the postseason.
Offseason Review: Free Agency hit Philadelphia hard. They lost ace reliever A.J. Masucci, and offensive stars Luis Robert and Bobby Witt Jr. Pedro Martinez, Anderson Franco, Jayden Mingo, and Alex Agurre will battle to take on the open positions, assuming the Phillies don’t sign someone late in Free Agency. No updates were made to the staff, meaning they shouldn’t be much better than they were last season.
On The Farm: It’s a weak farm. Philadelphia spent $8 million on Uganda prospect Gashie Mizra, and J.W. Mishra looks like an elite prospect with a rocket bat that should have easy over-the-fence power. He’s a ways away though. Ricky Koonce could provide some power if called up. Aside from that, there are few impact players in the system.
Best Case Scenario: Philadelphia’s offense shows up for seven months, not six.
Worst Case Scenario: The offense is a little weaker and can’t prop up an underwhelming staff, leading to a second place finish.
Deciding Questions: You lost a lot of talent in the offseason. Do you feel confident you can overcome the loss without adding replacements?
Your bullpen looks like a big weakness. Will you look to make a few trades to address that?
2) New York Mets
2030: 85-77, 2nd Place NL East
Who They Were: The Mets pitched to their park, overcoming mediocre FIPs and getting some decent play from their defense to be a solid run-prevention unit. The offense was underwhelming, 11th in runs, with some competent players, but little star power. Only two hitters posted more than 2 WAR, Gavin Lux and Gilberto Flores, and they each had an OPS+ under 100.
Offseason Review: The Mets lost a lot of solid players, but brought aboard some stars to make for an exciting staff. On the position player front, Gavin Lux and Luis Morales are out, as are Mickey Moniak and Luis Nunez. A number of promising arms are also gone. Excellent reliever Luis Orellana is in Milwaukee. Mike Gifford and Rebel Ceja are in St. Louis. Juan Trinidad is in Detroit. The Mets were able to add Eric Pena and Jeff Morrison though, which should make for an outstanding top of the staff. Bad Company Kevin Truitt rounds out a deep rotation. In the field, Hector Jimenez and Yusniel Diaz add young and veteran talent to the outfield, making up for the loss of Morales. Joe White takes over in Center Field and Simon Ferguson and Tim Harris are fighting over Second Base.
On The Farm: The Mets have an average farm, but the best talent are pitchers close to the majors. Manny Sanchez looks like an excellent reliever who may be able to cut it as a good starting pitcher. He’s been in Triple-A for two years, and should make the jump this year. Wally Wieland won 19 games with 5.5 WAR in Double-A Binghamton last season. He may be able to debut late this year, but likely needs a season in Triple-A before appearing on the scene as a mid-rotation arm. Lefty Shane Cooper can succeed as a top-notch lefty reliever, or he can make it as a back-end lefty starter. With that trio in the pipeline, the Mets are likely more resilient to pitching injuries than most.
Best Case Scenario: The Phillies open a door and the Mets pitch their way into a division title.
Worst Case Scenario: The offense isn’t good enough to support the staff.
Deciding Questions: You have a great staff and a decent offense. Do you feel like you have the fearsome power bat to produce against even good pitchers?
You targeted a number of exceptional pitchers in trades. Why target others teams’ arms and not their bats?
3) Atlanta Braves
2030: 76-86, 3rd Place NL East
Who They Were: The Braves had some solid high end talent, propped up by a weak supporting cast. Sonny Badillo slugged 63 homers, Kwi-Tae Yook hit .302 with 28 long balls, and Jim Morgan hit 28 homers and won eight games. Rhino Murrin won 15 Games and produced 3 WAR on the mound. All good numbers. Seven pitchers, however, pitched at least 45 innings with negative WAR, and no other position player had more than 13 homers or higher than a .265 average (minimum 156 at bats)
Offseason Review: Owner Julio Arroyo’s cost-cutting has really left the team paralyzed. A small market with fickle fans, the team is not excited for Atlanta baseball in 2031. Atlanta lost Luis Mendoza, but will retain mostly the same roster so as to keep the books in line.
On The Farm: It’s not a good farm, with only fringy top 100 prospects in the system. The Braves were finally able to sign most of their early picks last year, getting more talent in the organization, but not high-end prospects, nor talent close to the majors. With Arroyo slashing $40 million out of the organization since 2029, Atlanta will likely be forced to undertake a rebuild, once their finances get clean.
Best Case Scenario: Atlanta’s high-end talent and solid defense should make them a respectable team in an easy division. They can get close to .500.
Worst Case Scenario: Badillo doesn’t hit a billion homers and the offense is non-competitive. The team can lose close to 100 with bad luck.
Deciding Questions: You’re stuck with financial penalties this year and are close to being overbudget. What’s your goal for this specific season in light of that reality?
Jim Morgan can hit a little and pitch a little, but he was worse at both last year compared to 2029. What will his role be this season?
4) Washington Nationals
2030: 65-97, 4th Place NL East
Who They Were: The Nationals had a respectable offense that hit for just enough power, just enough average, and stole just enough bases to keep opponents honest, but Josh Carlson and Eric Pena were the only plus pitchers on the staff. The bullpen was horrendous, and Regis Jentzsch joined Carlson and Pena as the only pitchers with an ERA under 5 among arms with at least 21 innings pitched.
Offseason Review: Washington began its rebuild, trading away the legend Pena, as well as Jentzch and Dias. They did add Sixto Sanchez and Jaquan Chassagne in free agency to help the staff be respectable. Most of the same offensive players remain.
On The Farm: It’s only ranked 20th, but there are some nice pieces in the system. Alex Ruiz is very young so there’s a lot of risk, but if he pops, he’s 6-4 and can provide a lot of power if he fills out. Lothar Van Den Hout is similar—only a teenager, OSA rates him 4.5 stars as a Center Fielder who can be an elite hitter with good speed. Add Shigeru Yamachi as another outfielder who can’t legally drink, but can convince a scout there’s 50 home runs in his bat. All of Washington’s best bats are an eternity away. Beefsteak Bob Fry is close to the majors as a good arm, but he may be just a reliever, and there’s not much else in the way of pitching or defense in the system.
Best Case Scenario: Winning 72 games.
Worst Case Scenario: Allowing the most runs in the league
Key Questions You have a number of veterans on the team. Why are you holding on to some veterans instead of undergoing a full-scale teardown?
Manuel Ortiz had a great rookie year and an awful follow up. What’s your outlook for him in his third season?
5) Miami Marlins
2030: 43-119, Last Place NL East
Who They Were: Miami had more top end talent last year, but still wasn’t able to produce a competitive baseball team. They scored the fewest runs and allowed the most runs in the league last year. Only four position players had positive WAR (!!!). One was Joshua Lowe with 0.1 in 160 Games. The pitching was a little better, thanks to a not-egregious bullpen, but four of the team’s top six arms in starts had ERAs of 5.93 or higher. Even though Victor Robles was tremendous and Omar Lara was solid, Miami hasn’t figured out a way to build out a full roster. Former first overall pick Sean Jennings debuted and hit .304 in 535 plate appearances, showing promise for the future as the best prospect Miami has debuted in the Steven Luker era.
Offseason Review: Miami was very quiet this offseason, so they’ll have most of the same roster as last year. A full campaign for Jennings will help, and superprospect Chucky Newton will debut this year after holding his own in Triple-A last year. Miami could legitimately have one of the best outfields in baseball in September. There’s almost no way they don’t allow the most runs in the National League though, unless Washington is a little worse than advertised.
On The Farm: Newton likely won’t be on the farm for long, but Ray Chotkowski slots in after him as the best prospect in the system. A four pitch pitcher, he already has a decent two-seam-changeup combination that gets downward bite and misses bats, but his mechanics leave him wild. He could be a frontline starter with time. Chris Raybon is in the upper minors and looks like a second division Center Fielder in a year. Aaron Joseph was a 10th rounder last year, but looks like a future starting corner outfielder. Miami will need to develop non-outfielders, but it's easily the best crop they’ve had in their system, and another top pick this year will help.
Best Case Scenario: Robles, Chucky, and JV form the most exciting Marlins team since 2022.
Worst Case Scenario: 120 more losses.
Key Questions: Chucky Newton looks incredible, but obviously this isn’t a playoff team. Will you delay his debut in order to gain an extra year of service time or will you look to get better on the field right away?
You didn’t make many moves this offseason despite having a brutal roster last year. Why did you roll over most of last year’s team?
1) Philadelphia Phillies
2030: 100-62, NL East Champions. Lost to Los Angeles Dodgers 4-3 in NLDS.
Who They Were: The Phillies were an offensive juggernaut who destroyed regular season pitchers, leading the National League in virtually every offensive category. The pitching was merely adequate, but stepped up in the postseason against the Dodgers. Unfortunately, Philadelphia’s hitters didn’t hit in October, getting shutout in Game 7 of the NLDS to leave the postseason.
Offseason Review: Free Agency hit Philadelphia hard. They lost ace reliever A.J. Masucci, and offensive stars Luis Robert and Bobby Witt Jr. Pedro Martinez, Anderson Franco, Jayden Mingo, and Alex Agurre will battle to take on the open positions, assuming the Phillies don’t sign someone late in Free Agency. No updates were made to the staff, meaning they shouldn’t be much better than they were last season.
On The Farm: It’s a weak farm. Philadelphia spent $8 million on Uganda prospect Gashie Mizra, and J.W. Mishra looks like an elite prospect with a rocket bat that should have easy over-the-fence power. He’s a ways away though. Ricky Koonce could provide some power if called up. Aside from that, there are few impact players in the system.
Best Case Scenario: Philadelphia’s offense shows up for seven months, not six.
Worst Case Scenario: The offense is a little weaker and can’t prop up an underwhelming staff, leading to a second place finish.
Deciding Questions: You lost a lot of talent in the offseason. Do you feel confident you can overcome the loss without adding replacements?
Your bullpen looks like a big weakness. Will you look to make a few trades to address that?
2) New York Mets
2030: 85-77, 2nd Place NL East
Who They Were: The Mets pitched to their park, overcoming mediocre FIPs and getting some decent play from their defense to be a solid run-prevention unit. The offense was underwhelming, 11th in runs, with some competent players, but little star power. Only two hitters posted more than 2 WAR, Gavin Lux and Gilberto Flores, and they each had an OPS+ under 100.
Offseason Review: The Mets lost a lot of solid players, but brought aboard some stars to make for an exciting staff. On the position player front, Gavin Lux and Luis Morales are out, as are Mickey Moniak and Luis Nunez. A number of promising arms are also gone. Excellent reliever Luis Orellana is in Milwaukee. Mike Gifford and Rebel Ceja are in St. Louis. Juan Trinidad is in Detroit. The Mets were able to add Eric Pena and Jeff Morrison though, which should make for an outstanding top of the staff. Bad Company Kevin Truitt rounds out a deep rotation. In the field, Hector Jimenez and Yusniel Diaz add young and veteran talent to the outfield, making up for the loss of Morales. Joe White takes over in Center Field and Simon Ferguson and Tim Harris are fighting over Second Base.
On The Farm: The Mets have an average farm, but the best talent are pitchers close to the majors. Manny Sanchez looks like an excellent reliever who may be able to cut it as a good starting pitcher. He’s been in Triple-A for two years, and should make the jump this year. Wally Wieland won 19 games with 5.5 WAR in Double-A Binghamton last season. He may be able to debut late this year, but likely needs a season in Triple-A before appearing on the scene as a mid-rotation arm. Lefty Shane Cooper can succeed as a top-notch lefty reliever, or he can make it as a back-end lefty starter. With that trio in the pipeline, the Mets are likely more resilient to pitching injuries than most.
Best Case Scenario: The Phillies open a door and the Mets pitch their way into a division title.
Worst Case Scenario: The offense isn’t good enough to support the staff.
Deciding Questions: You have a great staff and a decent offense. Do you feel like you have the fearsome power bat to produce against even good pitchers?
You targeted a number of exceptional pitchers in trades. Why target others teams’ arms and not their bats?
3) Atlanta Braves
2030: 76-86, 3rd Place NL East
Who They Were: The Braves had some solid high end talent, propped up by a weak supporting cast. Sonny Badillo slugged 63 homers, Kwi-Tae Yook hit .302 with 28 long balls, and Jim Morgan hit 28 homers and won eight games. Rhino Murrin won 15 Games and produced 3 WAR on the mound. All good numbers. Seven pitchers, however, pitched at least 45 innings with negative WAR, and no other position player had more than 13 homers or higher than a .265 average (minimum 156 at bats)
Offseason Review: Owner Julio Arroyo’s cost-cutting has really left the team paralyzed. A small market with fickle fans, the team is not excited for Atlanta baseball in 2031. Atlanta lost Luis Mendoza, but will retain mostly the same roster so as to keep the books in line.
On The Farm: It’s not a good farm, with only fringy top 100 prospects in the system. The Braves were finally able to sign most of their early picks last year, getting more talent in the organization, but not high-end prospects, nor talent close to the majors. With Arroyo slashing $40 million out of the organization since 2029, Atlanta will likely be forced to undertake a rebuild, once their finances get clean.
Best Case Scenario: Atlanta’s high-end talent and solid defense should make them a respectable team in an easy division. They can get close to .500.
Worst Case Scenario: Badillo doesn’t hit a billion homers and the offense is non-competitive. The team can lose close to 100 with bad luck.
Deciding Questions: You’re stuck with financial penalties this year and are close to being overbudget. What’s your goal for this specific season in light of that reality?
Jim Morgan can hit a little and pitch a little, but he was worse at both last year compared to 2029. What will his role be this season?
4) Washington Nationals
2030: 65-97, 4th Place NL East
Who They Were: The Nationals had a respectable offense that hit for just enough power, just enough average, and stole just enough bases to keep opponents honest, but Josh Carlson and Eric Pena were the only plus pitchers on the staff. The bullpen was horrendous, and Regis Jentzsch joined Carlson and Pena as the only pitchers with an ERA under 5 among arms with at least 21 innings pitched.
Offseason Review: Washington began its rebuild, trading away the legend Pena, as well as Jentzch and Dias. They did add Sixto Sanchez and Jaquan Chassagne in free agency to help the staff be respectable. Most of the same offensive players remain.
On The Farm: It’s only ranked 20th, but there are some nice pieces in the system. Alex Ruiz is very young so there’s a lot of risk, but if he pops, he’s 6-4 and can provide a lot of power if he fills out. Lothar Van Den Hout is similar—only a teenager, OSA rates him 4.5 stars as a Center Fielder who can be an elite hitter with good speed. Add Shigeru Yamachi as another outfielder who can’t legally drink, but can convince a scout there’s 50 home runs in his bat. All of Washington’s best bats are an eternity away. Beefsteak Bob Fry is close to the majors as a good arm, but he may be just a reliever, and there’s not much else in the way of pitching or defense in the system.
Best Case Scenario: Winning 72 games.
Worst Case Scenario: Allowing the most runs in the league
Key Questions You have a number of veterans on the team. Why are you holding on to some veterans instead of undergoing a full-scale teardown?
Manuel Ortiz had a great rookie year and an awful follow up. What’s your outlook for him in his third season?
5) Miami Marlins
2030: 43-119, Last Place NL East
Who They Were: Miami had more top end talent last year, but still wasn’t able to produce a competitive baseball team. They scored the fewest runs and allowed the most runs in the league last year. Only four position players had positive WAR (!!!). One was Joshua Lowe with 0.1 in 160 Games. The pitching was a little better, thanks to a not-egregious bullpen, but four of the team’s top six arms in starts had ERAs of 5.93 or higher. Even though Victor Robles was tremendous and Omar Lara was solid, Miami hasn’t figured out a way to build out a full roster. Former first overall pick Sean Jennings debuted and hit .304 in 535 plate appearances, showing promise for the future as the best prospect Miami has debuted in the Steven Luker era.
Offseason Review: Miami was very quiet this offseason, so they’ll have most of the same roster as last year. A full campaign for Jennings will help, and superprospect Chucky Newton will debut this year after holding his own in Triple-A last year. Miami could legitimately have one of the best outfields in baseball in September. There’s almost no way they don’t allow the most runs in the National League though, unless Washington is a little worse than advertised.
On The Farm: Newton likely won’t be on the farm for long, but Ray Chotkowski slots in after him as the best prospect in the system. A four pitch pitcher, he already has a decent two-seam-changeup combination that gets downward bite and misses bats, but his mechanics leave him wild. He could be a frontline starter with time. Chris Raybon is in the upper minors and looks like a second division Center Fielder in a year. Aaron Joseph was a 10th rounder last year, but looks like a future starting corner outfielder. Miami will need to develop non-outfielders, but it's easily the best crop they’ve had in their system, and another top pick this year will help.
Best Case Scenario: Robles, Chucky, and JV form the most exciting Marlins team since 2022.
Worst Case Scenario: 120 more losses.
Key Questions: Chucky Newton looks incredible, but obviously this isn’t a playoff team. Will you delay his debut in order to gain an extra year of service time or will you look to get better on the field right away?
You didn’t make many moves this offseason despite having a brutal roster last year. Why did you roll over most of last year’s team?
