Post by Commissioner Erick on Dec 20, 2023 7:32:51 GMT -5
Cleveland Indians @ Texas Rangers
While it’s clear that Cleveland and Texas are two of the best teams in the PBA, each will have to overcome dramatic deficiencies to advance to the ALDS. Cleveland is just 7-17 against this year’s playoff crop on the road this year, with their only series win coming in late May against the Dodgers where both of Cleveland’s wins were in extra innings. This includes a series loss in Texas just before the All-Star break. That should tilt the scale heavily to Texas, who is hosting the Wild Card Game, but health is affecting the club. Gold Glove infielder Freudis Nova and powerful slugger Steve Goode will miss the game, plus Nick Pratto is banged up, leveling the playing field.
Rangers Offense versus Indians Pitching
Texas was a strong offense this year, that fared slightly better against righties than lefties as the club’s average was .234 against lefties and .258 against righties. That will likely expand for today with righties Goode and Nova on the shelf. Justin Acheson stepped in for Nova down the stretch, but he doesn’t have a dynamic bat, no matter who is on the mound. Ronald Acuna will probably take over in Right Field, and he has significant platoon splits over the course of his career. No matter what, Texas’ offense will take a hit, and especially against left-handed arms.
What Texas does do well is tear up the base paths around a few big sluggers. Texas still has Nick Pratto and his .412 OBP on the club. He gets on base; he clubs extra base hits with 42 doubles and 18 homers; and this year, he swipes bases with 17 steals. He’ll bat ahead of Lambert Swinkels (44 homers) and Josh Weyer (47 homers). That trio is all left-handed though, significantly reducing the team’s effectiveness against left-handed starters.
Texas’ other way of generating offense is just cruising around the bases. The team stole 185 bases this year, second most all-time to LAST YEAR’s Rangers. Juan Gestoso stole 40 bags and Luis V. Garcia swiped 34, but Pratto chipped in with 17, Fernando Tatis Jr. stole 18 in 18 tries, and Lambert Swinkels was effective in 24 in 26 attempts.
Both methods should be effective against Cleveland’s announced starter Chad Simon. For one thing, Simon is right-handed. Secondly, only two pitchers allowed more successful steals than Simon did this year. Simon is an effective arm, and he wasn’t a turnstile in holding runners—while Simon’s 21 steals allowed were third in the league, his six runners gunned down were 11th. Izak Pals also gunned down roughly 32% of runners, which is solid. It won’t be easy for Texas to run on Simon/Pals, but the high number of attempts is largely because of comfort against Simon.
Another reason why players run on Simon is he allows a ton of baserunners. Simon led the league in walks for the third straight year, and by a mile with 124. He also led the league in plunked batters. He never allows homers, he suppresses BABIP, and he strikes hitters out—especially righties, whom he dominates to the tune of a .557 OPS this year. But he walks everyone. Texas may have trouble generating offense traditionally against Simon, but if Juan Gesotoso can work a walk or Luis V. Garcia can slap a single, there’s a chance those guys can run around and score.
Off the bench, Alfredo Cruz can work a walk or pop a homer as a pinch hitter, and Fernando Tatis can sub in to provide speed and defense if there’s an injury.
Cleveland’s bullpen is good, but not as great as year’s past. They have two lefties in the pen, untouchable closer Tony Fleury, and fallen starter Luis Esparza. Esparza has allowed 18 homers this year out of the bullpen, including eight to lefties, so he’s not especially reliable in this matchup. The rest of Cleveland’s pen is also fairly homer prone, so if the Rangers can wait out Simon, Swinkels and Weyer could have chances to eat in the middle innings. The bullpen is also better at holding runners, so it may be up to the heart of the order to generate offense in the middle innings.
Aside from Fleury, relievers Rich Fernandez and Terrible John Kinser, plus long man Adam Langford are the only relievers with an ERA under 4.50.
Cleveland’s defense is strong, but it’s heavily tilted. The left side of the team is exceptional defensively, but the team is not as strong on the right side, which will help Pratto and Swinkels.
Indians Offense versus Rangers Pitching
After sputtering in April, Cleveland’s offense stabilized as a good-but not great unit for the rest of the season. Once Luis Retana went down for a couple of months in early July, Cleveland made a trade that really stabilized their offense, acquiring Danny Tammaro and Amed Rosario from Oakland. With those two aboard, and Retana returning from injury in September, Cleveland led the AL in OPS in September.
Cleveland’s offense is predicated on depth throughout the lineup. Assuming Jake Burger returns off the IL, each hitter in Cleveland’s lineup has double figure homers and five hitters are batting at least .273. It forces opposing pitchers to work throughout the entire lineup, and anyone can make a mistake. There are more righties than lefties in the lineup, which can help against Trout Taylor, but it’s a lineup that hasn’t shown a huge platoon split. That gives Cleveland a floor against most teams with ordinary pitchers.
However, Texas won’t be sending an ordinary pitcher to the mound, they’ll be sending Aaron Taylor to the mound and he has the fourth best ERA in the American League. He has a strong strikeout rate, doesn’t walk many, doesn’t yield many walks, and was third in the league in most runners caught stealing. He just turned 25, but he’s an ace, and it will take an elite offense to carve out runs against him. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start since July, and has only allowed four or more runs four times this season. He’s also been pitching better as the year has gone on, with hitters batting only .209 off him in August and .193 in September.
Texas’ bullpen is fairly evenly split with three righties and four lefties, most with sizeable platoon splits, so Texas may want to mix-and-match to get same-side pitchers as much as possible. All seven of the arms have an ERA between 2.95 and 3.70, making it a sea of steady, if unspectacular arms. With the exception of Juan Gutierrez and Tom Vogel, they all do a pretty good job of limiting homers, a must in Globe Life Park. With Cleveland featuring a deep lineup, limiting homers may be the best trait to attacking Cleveland’s hitters as Luis Retana is the team’s only real offensive star.
Texas isn’t a great defensive club, especially with Freudis Nova injured. The team’s outfield defense is particularly poor, so it will be important for Cleveland to try to make contact and hit the ball in the air as much as possible. Cleveland strikes out the second most time in the AL though, which won’t do it many favors.
Season Series:
Cleveland won the season series 4-3 with all games coming in the first half of the year. Three of the seven contests went to extra innings.
Cleveland won three of four at home against Texas with all of Cleveland’s wins coming 4-3, two of them in extras. In the opener, both teams got solid starting work and excellent relief work until a Marty Murphy single brought in Oil Can Evans as since demoted lefty Dan Jasperson couldn’t navigate Cleveland’s right-handers in the 11th inning. Texas followed up with an 8-3 win going ape off Ape Montiel as Nova, Goode, and Swinkels homered for Texas.
Cleveland managed one hit across seven innings of the third game, but they scratched five hits in the sixth off Sean Devereaux, leading to four runs in a 4-3 win. In the finale, Brayan Hernandez hit a game-tying single in the eighth inning and a walkoff walk in the 14th to give Cleveland the series in a marathon. Cleveland’s bullpen was remarkable, while for Texas, Dan Jasperson blew the game in the eighth and the offense couldn’t claw back.
In June, Four Eyes went 5-6 with two homers, a double, four runs scored, and five RBIs as Cleveland routed Texas 16-3. Jaiden Walker got roughed up, as did Jayden Martin in relief. Texas won the next day 7-1 as Steve Goode homered twice, Texas beat up Steve Bates, and Laurene Baffi and Ryan Fox combined for 8 shutout innings. With a seven-run lead, Dan Jasperson’s run allowed in the ninth didn’t cost Texas the game. The finale was a gem. Texas took a 1-0 lead into the eighth, but Oil Can Evans hit an RBI double to tie the game. The game went into extras and Alfredo Cruz hit a pinch hit walkoff homer off Tony Fleury to give Texas the series.
Deciding Questions:
With Texas’ injuries, will they be able to produce two-way play at Second Base and in the outfield today?
Can Cleveland make enough contact to take advantage of the holes in Texas’ defense?
Can Texas’ righties come through with runners on base, situations they’ll likely face with Simon’s penchant for putting runners on?
Prediction: Simon yields enough runners that Texas breaks through with some runs, and Taylor largely keeps Cleveland at bay. The Indians rally late, but Dan Jasperson isn’t on the mound to give Cleveland the win. 4-3 Rangers.
While it’s clear that Cleveland and Texas are two of the best teams in the PBA, each will have to overcome dramatic deficiencies to advance to the ALDS. Cleveland is just 7-17 against this year’s playoff crop on the road this year, with their only series win coming in late May against the Dodgers where both of Cleveland’s wins were in extra innings. This includes a series loss in Texas just before the All-Star break. That should tilt the scale heavily to Texas, who is hosting the Wild Card Game, but health is affecting the club. Gold Glove infielder Freudis Nova and powerful slugger Steve Goode will miss the game, plus Nick Pratto is banged up, leveling the playing field.
Rangers Offense versus Indians Pitching
Texas was a strong offense this year, that fared slightly better against righties than lefties as the club’s average was .234 against lefties and .258 against righties. That will likely expand for today with righties Goode and Nova on the shelf. Justin Acheson stepped in for Nova down the stretch, but he doesn’t have a dynamic bat, no matter who is on the mound. Ronald Acuna will probably take over in Right Field, and he has significant platoon splits over the course of his career. No matter what, Texas’ offense will take a hit, and especially against left-handed arms.
What Texas does do well is tear up the base paths around a few big sluggers. Texas still has Nick Pratto and his .412 OBP on the club. He gets on base; he clubs extra base hits with 42 doubles and 18 homers; and this year, he swipes bases with 17 steals. He’ll bat ahead of Lambert Swinkels (44 homers) and Josh Weyer (47 homers). That trio is all left-handed though, significantly reducing the team’s effectiveness against left-handed starters.
Texas’ other way of generating offense is just cruising around the bases. The team stole 185 bases this year, second most all-time to LAST YEAR’s Rangers. Juan Gestoso stole 40 bags and Luis V. Garcia swiped 34, but Pratto chipped in with 17, Fernando Tatis Jr. stole 18 in 18 tries, and Lambert Swinkels was effective in 24 in 26 attempts.
Both methods should be effective against Cleveland’s announced starter Chad Simon. For one thing, Simon is right-handed. Secondly, only two pitchers allowed more successful steals than Simon did this year. Simon is an effective arm, and he wasn’t a turnstile in holding runners—while Simon’s 21 steals allowed were third in the league, his six runners gunned down were 11th. Izak Pals also gunned down roughly 32% of runners, which is solid. It won’t be easy for Texas to run on Simon/Pals, but the high number of attempts is largely because of comfort against Simon.
Another reason why players run on Simon is he allows a ton of baserunners. Simon led the league in walks for the third straight year, and by a mile with 124. He also led the league in plunked batters. He never allows homers, he suppresses BABIP, and he strikes hitters out—especially righties, whom he dominates to the tune of a .557 OPS this year. But he walks everyone. Texas may have trouble generating offense traditionally against Simon, but if Juan Gesotoso can work a walk or Luis V. Garcia can slap a single, there’s a chance those guys can run around and score.
Off the bench, Alfredo Cruz can work a walk or pop a homer as a pinch hitter, and Fernando Tatis can sub in to provide speed and defense if there’s an injury.
Cleveland’s bullpen is good, but not as great as year’s past. They have two lefties in the pen, untouchable closer Tony Fleury, and fallen starter Luis Esparza. Esparza has allowed 18 homers this year out of the bullpen, including eight to lefties, so he’s not especially reliable in this matchup. The rest of Cleveland’s pen is also fairly homer prone, so if the Rangers can wait out Simon, Swinkels and Weyer could have chances to eat in the middle innings. The bullpen is also better at holding runners, so it may be up to the heart of the order to generate offense in the middle innings.
Aside from Fleury, relievers Rich Fernandez and Terrible John Kinser, plus long man Adam Langford are the only relievers with an ERA under 4.50.
Cleveland’s defense is strong, but it’s heavily tilted. The left side of the team is exceptional defensively, but the team is not as strong on the right side, which will help Pratto and Swinkels.
Indians Offense versus Rangers Pitching
After sputtering in April, Cleveland’s offense stabilized as a good-but not great unit for the rest of the season. Once Luis Retana went down for a couple of months in early July, Cleveland made a trade that really stabilized their offense, acquiring Danny Tammaro and Amed Rosario from Oakland. With those two aboard, and Retana returning from injury in September, Cleveland led the AL in OPS in September.
Cleveland’s offense is predicated on depth throughout the lineup. Assuming Jake Burger returns off the IL, each hitter in Cleveland’s lineup has double figure homers and five hitters are batting at least .273. It forces opposing pitchers to work throughout the entire lineup, and anyone can make a mistake. There are more righties than lefties in the lineup, which can help against Trout Taylor, but it’s a lineup that hasn’t shown a huge platoon split. That gives Cleveland a floor against most teams with ordinary pitchers.
However, Texas won’t be sending an ordinary pitcher to the mound, they’ll be sending Aaron Taylor to the mound and he has the fourth best ERA in the American League. He has a strong strikeout rate, doesn’t walk many, doesn’t yield many walks, and was third in the league in most runners caught stealing. He just turned 25, but he’s an ace, and it will take an elite offense to carve out runs against him. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start since July, and has only allowed four or more runs four times this season. He’s also been pitching better as the year has gone on, with hitters batting only .209 off him in August and .193 in September.
Texas’ bullpen is fairly evenly split with three righties and four lefties, most with sizeable platoon splits, so Texas may want to mix-and-match to get same-side pitchers as much as possible. All seven of the arms have an ERA between 2.95 and 3.70, making it a sea of steady, if unspectacular arms. With the exception of Juan Gutierrez and Tom Vogel, they all do a pretty good job of limiting homers, a must in Globe Life Park. With Cleveland featuring a deep lineup, limiting homers may be the best trait to attacking Cleveland’s hitters as Luis Retana is the team’s only real offensive star.
Texas isn’t a great defensive club, especially with Freudis Nova injured. The team’s outfield defense is particularly poor, so it will be important for Cleveland to try to make contact and hit the ball in the air as much as possible. Cleveland strikes out the second most time in the AL though, which won’t do it many favors.
Season Series:
Cleveland won the season series 4-3 with all games coming in the first half of the year. Three of the seven contests went to extra innings.
Cleveland won three of four at home against Texas with all of Cleveland’s wins coming 4-3, two of them in extras. In the opener, both teams got solid starting work and excellent relief work until a Marty Murphy single brought in Oil Can Evans as since demoted lefty Dan Jasperson couldn’t navigate Cleveland’s right-handers in the 11th inning. Texas followed up with an 8-3 win going ape off Ape Montiel as Nova, Goode, and Swinkels homered for Texas.
Cleveland managed one hit across seven innings of the third game, but they scratched five hits in the sixth off Sean Devereaux, leading to four runs in a 4-3 win. In the finale, Brayan Hernandez hit a game-tying single in the eighth inning and a walkoff walk in the 14th to give Cleveland the series in a marathon. Cleveland’s bullpen was remarkable, while for Texas, Dan Jasperson blew the game in the eighth and the offense couldn’t claw back.
In June, Four Eyes went 5-6 with two homers, a double, four runs scored, and five RBIs as Cleveland routed Texas 16-3. Jaiden Walker got roughed up, as did Jayden Martin in relief. Texas won the next day 7-1 as Steve Goode homered twice, Texas beat up Steve Bates, and Laurene Baffi and Ryan Fox combined for 8 shutout innings. With a seven-run lead, Dan Jasperson’s run allowed in the ninth didn’t cost Texas the game. The finale was a gem. Texas took a 1-0 lead into the eighth, but Oil Can Evans hit an RBI double to tie the game. The game went into extras and Alfredo Cruz hit a pinch hit walkoff homer off Tony Fleury to give Texas the series.
Deciding Questions:
With Texas’ injuries, will they be able to produce two-way play at Second Base and in the outfield today?
Can Cleveland make enough contact to take advantage of the holes in Texas’ defense?
Can Texas’ righties come through with runners on base, situations they’ll likely face with Simon’s penchant for putting runners on?
Prediction: Simon yields enough runners that Texas breaks through with some runs, and Taylor largely keeps Cleveland at bay. The Indians rally late, but Dan Jasperson isn’t on the mound to give Cleveland the win. 4-3 Rangers.
