Game of the Week: June 4: WAS @ BAL

[Commissioner Erick]

Washington Nationals (25-25) @ Baltimore Orioles (29-22)


WAS: Max Scherzer (3-2, 4.02)
BAL: Chris Tillman (0-3, 3.99)


The Nationals have been beaten and broken and have done their best to survive their onslaught of injuries. The Orioles have been the pinnacle of health, riding their good fortune to the top of the American League East. The two teams are square on opposite sides of the luck spectrum.

Beltway rivals and playoff hopefuls square off as the Washington Nationals and their battered squad challenge the Baltimore Orioles Monday night.

The Washington Nationals have been crushed by injures. The most damaging blow has easily been the loss of MVP Bryce Harper. A nearly perfect player, Harper is progressing well from a dislocated shoulder, but still won't be able to play for a month. Losing easily the best player in the game has naturally hurt the Nationals, but the barrage of injuries surrounding Harper has been almost comical.

Ryan Zimmerman finished 2017 in the top five of most offensive categories. Whether it be batting average, RBI's, doubles, or wOBA, Zimmerman was being recognized for doing everything but stealing bases and "only" hitting 27 home runs. He broke his kneecap in the offseason and will miss the season.

The Nationals traded for superstar Andrew McCutchen prior to the season, hoping his bat would be the missing piece to get Washington to the postseason. McCutchen has been limited to 100 plate appearances as a result of numerous upper body maladies.

Brett Lawrie hit will in a stint in Texas last season, and had a nice showing in March for Canada in the World Baseball Classic, and for the Nationals early in the season. However, he pulled his hamstring and has only 50 at bats on the season.

Bright prospect Raul Mondesi Jr. tore his labrum and will miss four months, despite a promising start to his career. Adam Eaton just came back from a lengthy trip on the disabled list. Jose Abreu has missed a couple of weeks. Anthony Rendon's season started late thanks to back injury. Those are just the hitters.

Stephen Strasburg tore his UCL in April and is down for the count, Jacob Turner is still recovering from ligament reconstruction surgery, and even Tanner Roark is dealing with a stiff back. Blake Treinen has been told to shut things down for a couple weeks, while Trevor Gott is missing the year with ligament reconstruction surgery.

This entire preview has been a depressing tale of the Nationals being wrought with adversity. They're 25-25, four games out of the second wild card, and with a few of their players healing up soon. If they can survive until Harper comes back, they'll have a deep, powerful lineup for the second half of the season.

The Nationals infielders deserve all the credit in the world for keeping the team afloat. Trea Turner has produced a .304 average and has stolen 14 of 16 bases, which is second most in the league. Daniel Murphy has improved on last year's strong campaign and is hitting .314/.354/.525. Finally, Jose Abreu has been one of the best hitters in the National League. After a subpar year last year that was a major reason why the Nationals missed the playoffs, he has 11 home runs, and .952 OPS, fifth best in the National League.

As the Nationals get healthy, there will be fewer plate appearances dedicated to replacement-level players. Clint Robinson has a negative WAR and a .182 average in 90 plate appearances. Brian Goodwin has an OPS of .590 in 43 starts. Victor Robles has a bright future, but he's been overmatched at the big league level and has a .533 OPS in 100 plate appearances. That combination of a talent returning and replacement players receding will make the Nationals a vastly different team. They'll attempt to show a game Orioles team that they have more talent than their .500 record indicates.

Baltimore, fueled by a healthy offense, is first in average and OBP and second in home runs. They're second in runs on the year, but lapped the field in May, averaging 6.2 runs per game last month. If looking for reasons for the turnaround from April to May, Chris Davis is the best place to look. Davis had an atrocious April. He hit .091/.197/.106 with nary a single home run, and just one solitary double. He struck out 33 times. He was the worst offensive player in the league for anyone who had at least 50 plate appearances.

That turned around In May. Davis exploded in the month for a .349 average with 10 home runs, good for a 1.207 OPS, tops among all players with at least 50 plate appearances. That turnaround is insane, but shows just how potent Davis can be when he clicks. Unfortunately, thanks to the down spell, he has roughly the same season statistics as teammates Mark Trumbo and Adam Jones: averages around .241 with low double-digit home runs. Those are good power numbers helped by a top of the order that is driving in runs.

After an excellent 2017, Hyun-soo Kim is showing that it wasn't a fluke as his numbers are very similar to his 2017 pace. He's batting .319/.377/.466—all numbers that are within 0.12 of last year's slash line. He's done it in a different way, giving up a bunch of doubles in order to hit a few more home runs. Still, the end result is basically the same year.

Jonathan Schoop is following him in the batting order and producing an absurd season. Schoop has four walks, 40 strikeouts, and a .340 average. That walk rate is the lowest in the league and the average is propped up by an almost .400 BABIP. He's cut down on his home runs to sling base hits all over the field, but one has to be convinced that his plate discipline numbers and scouting reports don't support such outrageous batting numbers.

Until the music stops though, it's a crazy profile of a crazy team. The Orioles are last in both defensive efficiency and have committed the most errors. Their second best starter this year had an ERA of 5.81 last year. They had a stretch a week ago where they won four straight games scoring over nine runs, though they gave up at least nine in three of them. Their injury log shows just three minor day-to-day injuries since the season started.

The Orioles simply have had a lot of luck, but they're a lot of fun, leading to shat should be a fantastic matchup against the Nationals.


Questions for the GMs:


For Jake Pennell, first of all, the injuries have been extreme. How has it been for you personally seeing all these star players missing time?

We could be seeing Brett Lawrie and Andrew McCutchen back as early as today. That would give your lineup the healthiest look it's had since the season started. Will they be activated, and if so, how will you juggle your lineup?

Your stars have been banged up, but even some of the healthy ones, like tonight's starter Max Scherzer, have underperformed. One group that has not underperformed are your relief pitchers. In fact, Tony Watson and Nick Vincent are both having excellent years in terms of WPA added, adding 0.7 wins to your team thus far. Why did you target each of those pitchers?

For Jeff Jennings, it appears Chris Tillman has made a choice to nibble a lot more this season. His home runs are down, his BABIP is down, his strikeouts are up, but his walks are through the roof. Is this anything you've suggested or is this him evolving and trying to be successful?

You signed Jonathan Lucroy to be your catcher despite having a pretty good catching prospect in your upper minors, Chance Cisco. How has the Lucroy signing panned out in your eyes?


Mychael Givens had too many rough outings early, and with options, he was demoted. Since being recalled he's done a lot better. Do you think he's ready to be a consistent contributor, or are you still wary of him?

[jjorioles]

1. We took a gamble on Tillman by signing him this season, history aside, he has not been good over the last couple of seasons. He has pitched well in about 50% of his starts this season, his lat start against the twins, pitched 6+ innings and only 2 runs. The 4 games before that were not pretty. I do not believe he will last the season in the starting rotation, he may end up in the bullpen, but that is up to him.

2. Lucroy brings great defense along with some solid hitting. Lucroy is doing exactly what we expected. Probably paying him too much, but we have the funds. I think Cisco will be up on the ML club earlier than later this season. Although we love Joseph, he probably is not worth keeping.

3. Givens has been off and on, keeping him as a middle reliever right now. He remains on a short leash, if he begins to screw up, he will be sailing to Norfolk.

[pennelwashington]

To be honest it has been really frustrating. Having to call people up and play in the everyday lineup that aren't major league ready. But some of those players like Voth and Sanburn are holding their own really well. Without those two playing to their max potential, we would be plenty games below 500. Hopefully, with the return of Harper and Mondesi, we will be contending for the division and if not that the first wildcard spot.

Yes, McCutchen and Lawrie will be playing in the starting line up tonight. McCutchen will be hitting in the three hole and Lawrie will be hitting eighth ahead of Goodwin who has had a poor season along with Clint Robinson who is not in the starting line up tonight. In 50 at-bats Lawrie has been hitting very well which is why he will be hitting in the DH spot tonight. Other than that the lineup is pretty much the same as it has been.

First of all, Watson had an excellent year last year so I was very determined to sign him in the offseason. Especially since the bullpen was very poor last year and since we had a lot of relievers leaving for free agency we had to sign a few. Nick Vincent has been a pleasant surprise. He was one of the last players we signed during the off-season. The Nationals needed bullpen and that's what we targeted in the offseason. In the case of Scherzer we're hoping that tonight is the night he turns it around and starts pitching like the ace this team needs.

[Commissioner Erick]

Nationals 6 - Orioles 3


WP: M. Scherzer (4-2)
LP: C. Tillman (0-4)


Andrew McCutchen and Jose Abreu had not been in the lineup together since April 25th. The Orioles unfortunately had to be the team rediscovering what an electric tandem they are.

McCutchen celebrated his return from the disabled list with two hits and a stolen base, Abreu had a pair of hits, including a three-run home run and four RBI, and the healing Washington Nationals blasted the Baltimore Orioles 6-3.

It was an exciting result for a Nationals team besieged by injuries all season. McCutchen's return is one more big bat in the Nationals lineup, and Bryce Harper is only three weeks away.

McCutchen started his day on the right foot cracking a two-out single off Chris Tillman in the first, but he was stranded there to end the inning. He came up with the game knotted at two in the third inning for his second at bat, and went the other way for the second time for his second hit. He stole second base and sprinted home after Jose Abreu grounded a base hit up the middle.

Washington blew the game open in the fifth. With two outs Daniel Murphy cracked his second hit of the night. McCutchen followed with a full count walk. Jose Abreu fell behind 1-2, but elevated a high-and-away fastball down the right field line for a three-run blast that put the Nationals up 6-2.

That was all Max Scherzer needed. Scherzer struggled in the first, allowing a two-run home run to Adam Jones to put Washington in a 2-0 hole. He settled in wonderfully though. After Trumbo followed Jones' home run with a walk, Scherzer retired 16 in a row, culminated in getting revenge on Jones by whiffing him to begin the seventh. Trumbo got Baltimore's first hit since the first inning with a one-out double, but Scherzer got Seth Smith and Jonathan Lucroy to fly out harmlessly to end the inning. Scherzer retired the side in the eighth, and in whiffing Erick Aybar, recorded a strikeout in each of the 8 innings he pitched.

Scherzer went 8 innings, allowing two runs on three hits, walking one, and fanning nine in an excellent performance. His counterpart Tillman wasn't nearly as effective, giving up six runs on nine hits in 4.2 innings.

Jonathan Schoop had two hits for the Orioles and scored twice. Anthony Rendon hit his sixth home run in the second inning.


Questions for the GMs:


For Jake Pennel, McCutchen and Abreu were dynamite in the middle of the order. Is that what you were expecting when you acquired McCutchen?

You held Brett Lawrie out of the game opting to go with Clint Robinson and Brian Goodwin. What factors went into that decision?

We got word during the game that you had reached a pre-draft agreement to select Ryder Green in the 2018 draft. What do you like about the kid?

For Jeff Jennings, Chris Tillman looked more hittable. He wasn't nibbling as he usually has this year, and was around the strike zone, getting hit hard. You mentioned sending him to the bullpen, did this performance give you more of an incentive to do that?

You gave Manny Machado a day off and your team couldn't touch Scherzer. What made you choose today as Machado's rest day and not a day in the future?

Rumor is that Levi Kelly will be your first round pick. What made you select him and bring him into your organization?

[jjorioles]

Losing at home to the Nationals hurt, but Tillman was not the reason the O's lost the game, Scherzer pitched brilliantly and hamstrung Baltimore throughout. This team has trouble scoring runs in bunches. Have no problem with Tillman in this one; unfortunately he left one over the plate with 2 strikes to Abreu and that was that. Lakind and O'Day shut down Washington the rest of the way, but then there was Scherzer.

Machado took the day off for a private matter, with Scherzer pitching the way he was, it was a good day to be off. (Sidenote: I had him in the 7-day lineups, the game sat him, maybe fatigue?)

The Orioles organization has identified a lack of good pitching prospects and getting pitchers (starting and relief) was one of the main goals going into the draft. Kelly looks like the complete package, great stamina, the ability to throw the fastball and identified potential to have killer breaking pitches. Identified weaknesses are a bit of wildness and the lack of a good 4th pitch, those can be worked on.

[Commissioner Erick]

In my other league, Kelly kept getting picked in the first round and unsigned so I'm excited to see what he can do for you...or if he'll continue the trend of not signing haha.

[jjorioles]

Well, my 1st draft choice didn't sign last season, maybe it's a trend