Post by Commissioner Erick on Mar 5, 2018 19:35:34 GMT -5
St. Louis Cardinals (55-47) @ Chicago Cubs (55-48)
STL: Carson Fulmer (10-4, 3.46)
CHC: Alec Mills (9-8, 3.52)
The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs are neck and neck for the NL Central despite vastly different profiles. They'll square off for the Game of the Week.
The Chicago Cubs have a massive run differential, on par with the league's best. However, they've underperformed that run differential wildly and at times this year have been 12 or 13 games worse than Pythagoras or Base Runs have predicted. The result is a team that's possibly dominant and possibly may miss the postseason.
Their pitching has been sensational all year, which is one reason for the strong indicators. The Cubs have the best starters ERA in the league, getting a huge help from unheralded names like tonight's starter Alec Mills.
Mills is 9-8 with a 3.52 ERA that's about 25% better than the league average. Despite not getting many strikeouts, Mills has been crafty, guileful, and kept the ball on the ground. His ground ball percentage is fifth among NL qualifiers at 62.8%, and has allowed him to override pedestrian stuff and turn in a stellar year.
While Mills frustrates opposing hitters into making outs, the back of the Cubs bullpen overwhelms them. Justin Grimm is in his second year posting an ERA in the low to mid 2s, and Wade Davis has 17 saves and a miniscule 1.78 ERA. Davis has hitters running a .159 BABIP, plus he's struck out 44 batters in 35.1 innings.
Mills is likely to keep the Cubs close, and their bullpen is likely to put leads away. This makes it imperative that the Cardinals get a good game from their best pitcher this season, Carson Fulmer.
Fulmer is a ground-pounder in his own right, but has better stuff than Mills. He's allowed just six home runs on the year, and is third in HR/9. He also strikes out more than a batter an inning. If he could curtail his walks, he'd be in the upper echelon of NL starters.
St. Louis will also need to see if they can get home runs from a source other than Jedd Gyorko and Randall Grichuk. Despite those two players having more than 20 blasts, St. Louis is in the middle of the pack in home runs. Whether or not those two righties can elevate against Mills may be a key to the game.
Questions for the GMs:
For Stephane Legace, you took the team over in mid-season. How have you attempted to shape the team to your liking?
You're facing an opponent that has an excellent bullpen. Will you try to play for the big inning early, or will you try to maximize opportunities for an early lead?
Dexter Fowler and Yadier Molina are two leaders in the clubhouse who have been benched. Your clubhouse morale has been excellent but how will you handle those players this season? Fowler has been reasonably productive.
For Brandon Hillebrand, your team has really underperformed its run differential. Are you the good but not great team fighting for the playoffs, or the juggernaut run differential believes you to be?
You made a huge deal trading for Chris Sale. How has that trade affected your depth?
Javier Baez has a sore elbow. Will he play in tonight's game?
STL: Carson Fulmer (10-4, 3.46)
CHC: Alec Mills (9-8, 3.52)
The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs are neck and neck for the NL Central despite vastly different profiles. They'll square off for the Game of the Week.
The Chicago Cubs have a massive run differential, on par with the league's best. However, they've underperformed that run differential wildly and at times this year have been 12 or 13 games worse than Pythagoras or Base Runs have predicted. The result is a team that's possibly dominant and possibly may miss the postseason.
Their pitching has been sensational all year, which is one reason for the strong indicators. The Cubs have the best starters ERA in the league, getting a huge help from unheralded names like tonight's starter Alec Mills.
Mills is 9-8 with a 3.52 ERA that's about 25% better than the league average. Despite not getting many strikeouts, Mills has been crafty, guileful, and kept the ball on the ground. His ground ball percentage is fifth among NL qualifiers at 62.8%, and has allowed him to override pedestrian stuff and turn in a stellar year.
While Mills frustrates opposing hitters into making outs, the back of the Cubs bullpen overwhelms them. Justin Grimm is in his second year posting an ERA in the low to mid 2s, and Wade Davis has 17 saves and a miniscule 1.78 ERA. Davis has hitters running a .159 BABIP, plus he's struck out 44 batters in 35.1 innings.
Mills is likely to keep the Cubs close, and their bullpen is likely to put leads away. This makes it imperative that the Cardinals get a good game from their best pitcher this season, Carson Fulmer.
Fulmer is a ground-pounder in his own right, but has better stuff than Mills. He's allowed just six home runs on the year, and is third in HR/9. He also strikes out more than a batter an inning. If he could curtail his walks, he'd be in the upper echelon of NL starters.
St. Louis will also need to see if they can get home runs from a source other than Jedd Gyorko and Randall Grichuk. Despite those two players having more than 20 blasts, St. Louis is in the middle of the pack in home runs. Whether or not those two righties can elevate against Mills may be a key to the game.
Questions for the GMs:
For Stephane Legace, you took the team over in mid-season. How have you attempted to shape the team to your liking?
You're facing an opponent that has an excellent bullpen. Will you try to play for the big inning early, or will you try to maximize opportunities for an early lead?
Dexter Fowler and Yadier Molina are two leaders in the clubhouse who have been benched. Your clubhouse morale has been excellent but how will you handle those players this season? Fowler has been reasonably productive.
For Brandon Hillebrand, your team has really underperformed its run differential. Are you the good but not great team fighting for the playoffs, or the juggernaut run differential believes you to be?
You made a huge deal trading for Chris Sale. How has that trade affected your depth?
Javier Baez has a sore elbow. Will he play in tonight's game?