Game of the Week: August 20: SEA @ NYY

[Commissioner Erick]

Seattle Mariners (63-54) @ New York Yankees (63-54)


SEA: Jimmy Nelson (9-7, 4.52)
NYY: Masahiro Tanaka (9-8, 4.12)


The Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees are both coming off series wins against the best teams in the AL Central. The team that can prevail tonight will continue to boost their odds of making the playoffs.

Seattle has struggled mightily after the All Star break, losing 14 of 21. The low point may be getting swept by the Royals during the stretch, while the most damaging element is losing six of seven to the Astros. They took advantage of a mixed up Indians rotation to take a series in Cleveland, but the Yankees may be a stiffer test.

What's been frustrating Aaron Dunham the most is a pitching staff that has the fourth highest HR rate in the American League. Jimmy Nelson, tonight's starter, was acquired from Milwaukee to help stem that. He allowed only 10 home runs in one of the most extreme run environments in baseball, pitching in Colorado Springs last year. He allowed only nine in 104.1 innings for the Brewers this year. However, in Seattle, he's already allowed three in 19 frames. Combined with a brutal BABIP, Nelson's ERA as a Mariner is 8.53.

Fortunately, the bullpen has been a bit better, serving up five home runs in 70.1 innings this month. Stopped Brad Ziegler has three wins and a save this month, not allowing a home run. Jorge de la Rosa has served up one, but he's allowed just two earned runs (three total) for a 1.40 ERA. Buddy Boshers and Dan Strailey have dual 2.08 ERAs this month.

Seattle has been good in the late innings so it will be imperative for Nelson to find a way to keep the ball in the park.

Interestingly enough, he'll be facing a Yankees team that's not great at stringing together hits but is excellent at hitting the ball over the fence. All year long, the Yankees have clubbed home runs and all year long, they've struggled to hit for average. Their fly ball hitters versus Nelson will be a key plot to the game.

New York's home run hitting tendencies will be even more pronounced with the news that Dee Gordon will be out. Gordon has no homers, but he does have a .293 average and 48 steals. Unfortunately, he also has a torn thumb that will keep him out a month.

The Yankees can pencil in Ronald Torreyes in his stead as Torreyes has displayed a steady glove all over the infield in his time with the Yankees, but hasn't hit this year. In Triple-A, the Yankees have Rob Refsnyder who has 17 home runs thus far; Tyler Wade who hasn't hit above Double-A, but has the favor of numerous scouts, or Donovon Solano, a player who has hit for a steady average the past two years, and has World Baseball Classic experience.

Korean Ji-Man Choi has taken over at Designated Hitter for the Yankees over the summer and given the team some extra pop, with four home runs and nine doubles and a .280 average. The heart of the Yankees order all has at least 20 home runs thus far, and Wladimir Balentien would join them if he weren't consistently nicked up with hamstring issues, and a back problem he battled last year in Japan. If Nelson can't keep the ball down, the Mariners may be in trouble.

The Yankees will throw out Masahiro Tanaka, and he's been on a hot streak, especially of late. In the short term, he has a 2.08 ERA with three walks and 15 strikeouts in his past two starts, a win and a no-decision. Those starts were against the Twins and Diamondbacks, but he's allowed two runs or fewer in five of his last six starts, dating back to July 14th. He has a 3.70 FIP that's better than his ERA, and in line with a 3.78 mark he posted last year. With the best bullpen in the league, and Tanaka's stinginess, it'll be a tough task for the Mariners to score a lot of runs.

Seattle's offense is the mirror image of the Yankees. They don't hit many home runs but they do hit for average and score runs. Robinson Cano's power output is down, but he's doing a nice job getting on base again, while Lorenzo Cain has a solid .290 average and .342 OBP from the leadoff spot.

The Mariners, however, were getting a great season from Rule-V pick Dustin Peterson, who just tore his labrum. The loss puts a strain on an offense that has been lacking impact bats. With Adrian Beltre in Tampa Bay, and Prince Fielder disappointing and then released, Seattle just doesn't have the power bat needed to drive in all the guys who have gotten on base. They'll need to continue to do it with simply good hitting.

They may be getting Jurrickson Profar back for the contest. Profar had a great run for The Netherlands in the WBC this spring, but didn't carry over the success to the PBA. He's only hitting .242 with 13 extra base hits in nearly 300 plate appearances. Seattle will need its struggling players to step up if it wants to continue playing in October.


Questions for the GMs:


For Aaron Dunham, do you think Jimmy Nelson is good enough to miss the bats of the Yankees power hitters? That question may determine the game.

The Yankees bullpen is overwhelmingly good. How do you make sure they don't get used optimally in this game?

With Peterson out, who becomes your left fielder and how does it change the dynamic of your offense?

For Greg Masceri, who takes over for Dee Gordon at second and why? Also, how will you rearrange your lineup now?

Balentien is dealing with some back stiffness, and this has flared up in the past. Will he be in the lineup today?

You've benched Matt Holliday after a productive 2017 from the veteran. Is there any chance you'd have him as a starter again?

[torontogm]

As always, I really appreciate these write-ups, Erick. Nice work.

Do you think Jimmy Nelson is good enough to miss the bats of the Yankees power hitters? That question may determine the game.
One could say that I am "confident" in my players, perhaps even too much so. That being said, I don't throw any player out there who I feel like is not able to help us win. We may not make the playoffs this year, but I hope we can be well positioned to win many games next year. To answer your question, I don't expect perfection from Nelson, especially against the Yankees' lineup. If he can go 5 innings, give up one home run, and strike out five, chances are good that I'll be in the game. That isn't asking for a lot.

The Yankees bullpen is overwhelmingly good. How do you make sure they don't get used optimally in this game?
There are a lot of good bullpens out there (I have a lot of confidence in my own, as well). Ideally, we'll score early and prevent the Yankees from utilizing their big arms later in the game. If not, I'm going to hope for a bad day, because everyone is entitled to some of those.

With Peterson out, who becomes your left fielder and how does it change the dynamic of your offense?
Peterson's injury really hurts, because I was just starting to have high hopes for his production. However, the emergence of infielders Mejias-Brean and Hinojosa will allow Jurickson Profar to get 80% of the playing time in LF. Don't count out Greg Deichmann, though, or Ben Gamel getting some reps in the OF. We have a luxury of depth in Seattle, so Peterson's loss will not hurt very much.

[gmyankees]

The Yankees have been forced to make some changes offensively to try and help the team batting. We start off going from bad to worse as we lose Dee Gordon to injury. We move Torreyeas to second base and sit Balentein in Left and Holliday at DH. They will be replaced by Dustin Fowler in left field and Ji-Man Choi at DH to try and shake things up a bit. As far as our bullpen I'm confident that ours will stack up to anyone ese in this league with a deep bench of relievers and Betances and Chapman to close it out. If our starters get clicking like they appear to be now and our hitters can make better contact then we can make some noise in the playoffs.

[Commissioner Erick]

Yankees 2 - Mariners 1


WP: D. Betances (3-4)
LP: B. Ziegler (6-2)
SV: A. Chapman (25)


Jimmy Nelson kept the ball in the yard. Masahiro Tanaka kept his arm on the sidelines.

Unfortunately, the Mariners kept their bats in the dugout.

Seven Yankees pitchers combined to four-hit the Mariners, Dustin Fowler had a tie-breaking RBI double in the eighth, and the New York Yankees helped their playoff hopes by squeaking past the Seattle Mariners 2-1.

It was a huge win for the Yankees who are now 24-11 since July 10 to surge back into the playoff picture. After losing series to the Dodgers and Twins, they rebounded against the White Sox before capturing the first game of their set with Seattle.

Unsurprisingly, the bullpen was what carried the Yankees to victory.

Despite striking out Jurrickson Profar in his first at bat off the DL, Tanaka was sitting in the 70's with his pitches that at bat. He struck out Profar, but apparently, wasn't able to get loose warming up. Trainers declared him as having a tired arm after Tanaka asked out of the game.

Fortunately, the rest of his teammates picked up for him. Tyler Clippard came on and didn't allow a hit in 2.0 innings. Tommy Layne picked up from Clippard and allowed just a single hit working into the sixth. Chasen Shreve finished the sixth and got into trouble in the seventh, giving up a hit and a walk to put two men on for Miguel Gomez in a scoreless game.

Jonathan Holder came on and walked Gomez to load the bases after a nine-pitch at bat. Despite the stakes and following a lengthy at bat, C.J. Hinojosa swung at the first pitch and grounded it right to Gleyber Torres playing in, starting a 6-2-3 double play that got the Yankees out of the jam.

At this point, Jimmy Nelson was also dealing, keeping the ball in the park, not allowing extra-base hits, and generally being the player Seattle hoped they were getting when they picked him up from Milwaukee.

He was excellent working out of jams. With two outs and one on in the second, he struck out Rob Refsnyder, called up from the minors before the game, and retired Didi Gregorious on a grounder to end the threat. After Dustin Fowler singled and stole second in fourth inning, Nelson again was able to strike out Refsnyder to keep the game scoreless.

The fifth inning saw Nelson's greatest escape. With two on and one out, he was able to strike out Greg Bird to get to two outs before walking Gary Sanchez to load the bases. Despite falling behind Clint Frazier 2-0, Nelson got Frazier to pop up to center field to strand the bases loaded and preserve the tie.

The seventh inning would be Nelson's undoing. After a Torreyes single and a Gregorious walk, Gleybor Torres hit into a double play. However, with one out needed to get out of the mess, Greg Bird hit the only extra base hit off Nelson, a double to left, to give the Yankees a one-run lead.

Seattle went to work in the eighth, with Lorenzo Cain following two Holder strikeouts with a home run to knot the game at one. Holder then melted down, walking three straight batters. After 45 pitches to get four outs, he was replaced by Dellin Betances. Seth Mejias-Brean was late on a fastball and grounded out to Bird to preserve the knot.

Brad Ziegler was called upon to keep the game tied, but he allowed doubles to Frazier and then Fowler to give the Yankees a 2-1 lead. The second double was second-guessed as the slumping righty Refsnyder was due up after Ziegler. Fowler stole third base, but Ziegler retired Refsnyder and Torreyes on a ground ball and line drive to get out of the inning.

However, capping off a terrific day from the bullpen, Aroldis Chapman needed just nine pitches to work a perfect ninth with two strikeouts against the bottom of Seattle's order.


Questions for the GMs:


For Aaron Dunham, Ziegler was asked to retire Dustin Fowler instead of a slumping Refsnyder and Torreyes in the eighth. Do you regret not walking Fowler?

Twice Hinojosa failed to deliver with runners in scoring position, including a double play grounder with the bases full. Are you getting enough out of that position offensively?

How frustrating was it getting so little offensively in a game against the Yankees entire bullpen?

For Greg Masceri, you moved Fowler and Refsnyder into starting outfield roles. Fowler paid off with two hits and two steals, including the go-ahead double. Refsnyder struggled in his first look at major league action this year. Assess their performance.

Despite back stiffness, you gave Balentien a start at DH. What went into that move?

How rewarding is it to have an entire bullpen perform well in a game? You threw out six relievers and they were all sharp.

[torontogm]

Ziegler was asked to retire Dustin Fowler instead of a slumping Refsnyder and Torreyes in the eighth. Do you regret not walking Fowler?
Not at all. I have my strategy set to avoid intentional walks, and that is mentality I stick with. As easy as it is to second guess decisions, everything will not always work out according to plans. I need to stay consistent with my mission, rather than stray when things do not work out.

Twice Hinojosa failed to deliver with runners in scoring position, including a double play grounder with the bases full. Are you getting enough out of that position offensively?
Hinojosa is young and still developing. Earlier this year he had an AL player of the week award. Offensively, I'd like a lot more from my shortstops, but defensively, they are good enough to provide enough value.

How frustrating was it getting so little offensively in a game against the Yankees entire bullpen?
Very. Even more frustrating: with a tired bullpen in the first game, I could not squeak out a win the entire series.

[gmyankees]

Dustin Fowler is a bright young star that we feel caan help us give some rest to Balentein who has had some nagging injuries this year. We also like Refsnyder to able to play at a number of positions to play an as neeeded role and though his game performance was less than we hoped we still believe he can be a great contributor for us. Obviously our bullpen is what keeps us in games and we feel that ours maybe the deepest in the PBA.