Post by Commissioner Erick on Aug 28, 2018 21:56:51 GMT -5
Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers find themselves in familiar territory, turning around a dismal start with inspiring play once the weather warmed up to earn their third consecutive playoff berth. They'll take on a playoff newcomer in the Minnesota Twins that fended off a charging Cleveland club to earn their first trip to the PBA postseason. Minnesota lost 92 and 94 games the past two seasons, with Herman deBarr turning around a sad-sack club to earn a trip to the playoffs.
Twins hitting versus Rangers pitching
The Twins feature a lineup the ranks first in steals and fourth in home runs, but only seventh in runs scored. With the 12th best on-base percentage in the league, it's a puzzling construction. The team will hit the ball over the fence. And if on base, they'll definitely steal second to make their task easier. However, getting that multi-run home run, or that key hit with runners in scoring position isn't as easy a task for the Twins as other teams. In fact, the Twins had the lowest number of plate appearances in the league with a man on first, and the fourth fewest with man in scoring position. However, to their credit, with men in scoring position they had the second most home runs in the AL.
The lineup oozes with power from the middle of the order on down. Miguel Sano is the superstar, with 42 home runs and 121 runs driven in from the middle of the order, but there are other stars too. Max Kepler and Byron Buxton each hit at least 37 home runs, Brian Dozier hit 32, and Kennys Vargas clubbed 30. The home run power flows and flows through the roster.
Also, the speed numbers are dispersed throughout the lineup. Instead of a single dynamo with a couple tertiary options, the Twins feature a host of players capable of stealing a bag and putting pressure on opponents. Engelb Vielma stole 31 bases, while Nick Gordon stole 33. Buxton and Kepler each stole in the 20s, while Dozier pilfered 18 bags. Even Miguel Sano chipped in with nine. With power to spare, and a running game designed to test opposing pitchers, it's a lineup designed to pressure opposing pitchers on multiple fronts.
The mitigating factor of the power and speed is that the power comes at a cost and the speed isn't the most efficient. The Twins were worst in the league in strikeout rate, with Sano putting up the sixth highest mark, and Kennys Vargas the ninth. Sano had the eighth highest walk rate, and was second in BABIP, indicating patience to only swing at pitches he could drive, a reluctance to cut down his swing with two strikes, and the talent to hit balls hard when he did make contact. Sano is a special batting talent.
A miniature version of Sano, at least at the plate, rests in Byron Buxton. Of the 87 qualified AL batters, Buxton also sported an elevated strikeout number, a solid walk rate, and a good BABIP indicative of speed, an ability to make hard contact, or both. However, Vargas did not have the elevated BABIP of his slugging teammates, while Dozier lacks the walk rate and BABIP. Aside from Kepler, no starter showed an inclination to avoid strikeouts.
Also, despite the stolen bases, the Twins were middle of the pack in base-stealing efficiency. While several players were among the better runners in the game, Nick Gordon dragged the team down. He was the second worst runner in baseball as he was thrown out on 19 of his 54 attempts.
Finally, even with Sano a right-hander, the team was better against right-handed pitching this year than left-handed pitching. The team sported a 0.30 point OPS increase against righties, partly because of Sano hitting better against righties than lefties somehow. In fact, the team sported several reverse splits for the year, but many lesser players tanked against lefties. Those numbers with some players reverse themselves with a broader sample, so take them with a grain of salt. However, two prominent Twins hitters, Brian Dozier, and Kennys Vargas, both struggle against lefties compared to righties.
Dozier has a .723 OPS against lefties in essentially a full season's worth of games, as he hits .229 against them. Contrast this with an .832 mark against righties. Vargas is similar. He has an impotent .707 mark against lefties compared to a solid .750 against righties.
This wouldn't be a major problem, but they'll be going up against perhaps the best postseason pitcher of our age, left-hander Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner took a small step back this year, walking a few more guys, striking out a few less, and yielding more runs. However, he was acquired for games like today and his postseason honors are remarkable.
Here are the statistics where he leads all postseason pitchers: Wins (6), ERA (1.77), Winning Percentage (6-0), Complete Games (1), Shutouts (1), Innings (45.2), strikeouts (49), Walks per nine (1.2), walk rate (3.45%), strikeout rate (24.71%), and FIP (2.61). He's magnificence made flesh and will be going up against untested youngsters on Minnesota.
The Twins have faced Bumgarner twice this season, going 1-1 against him. Bumgarner allowed three home runs in one start, including to Kepler and Vargas, taking the loss despite striking out 11 and walking nobody. Bumgarner went an efficient 6 innings in his next start, picking up the win in an 18-1 rout.
Texas' bullpen is solid, but skews heavily right-handed, with five arms working between a 3.75 and a 4.81 ERA. Both Matt Bush and Keona Kela throw flames, but Bush has been able to harness his control and give up fewer walks and home runs this season. Sam Dyson has been excellent, and led the AL in ground ball rate among players with 50 or more innings. He's fantastic if you need a strikeout or double play. Jeremy Jeffress relinquished the closer role this year, and lowered both his walks and strikeouts removed from the pressures of the ninth inning. Josh Staumont strikes out most and walks the rest. He'll likely only pitch in an emergency.
The bullpen's only lefty for close games will be Alex Claudio. After an All-Star nod as a setup man in 2018, Claudio earned a trip as a closer this year. His BABIPs against are consistently low, he doesn't yield home runs, and his changeup is so good that he uses it as an out pitch against lefties and righties alike. No pitcher save possibly Masahiko Morifuku gets so much from an aresnal the tops out at 85 miles-an-hour.
Texas' bullpen worked to a 3.00 ERA against the Twins this year, second best amongst AL bullpens, including a pair of wins and saves in all four of Texas' victories, a fact that is ominous for Minnesota.
The bullpen, like Bumgarner, has been oft-tested and generally performed very favorably. Keona Kela was enshrined in playoff lore back in 2017 when he came on to preserve a one-run lead with two men on and two outs in the ninth and he struck out Gary Sanchez of the Yankees to preserve the lead.
It will be up to stars like Sano to break through against that pitching staff.
The Twins don't make much contact that lands in play, but when they do, Texas' defense isn't good. Brallan Perez will likely start at shortstop, a place he doesn't have much experience in and his skills are stretched. Carlos Santana will possibly start in right field, where his bat plays, but he's a clear defensive liability. Only Billy Hamilton grades as a sterling defender, though La Cabra, Francisco Mejia, is good behind the plate, and Paul Goldschmidt had a fine 2018.
The Twins will likely employ Niko Goodrum and Eddie Rosario off the bench. Rosario has been pretty good against righties in his career, though he's only pinch hit twice this season.
Rangers hitting versus Twins pitching
If you need a victory in a winner-take-all contest, sending out the league's ERA leader is a great place to turn. Highlighted in last week's Game of the Week, Jose Berrios is a superstar and on the short list of AL starters you want starting this game. Firmly in command of his fastball and curveball, La Maquina has been a strikeout machine that finished behind only Carlos Rodon and Corey Kluber in the AL pecking order.
One of Berrios' four complete games this year was a gem against Texas. On August 15th, Berrios went the distance allowing a pair of runs, walking nobody and whiffing nine in a masterpiece, so he has experience being at the height of his powers and vanquishing the Rangers.
Aside from Berrios' excellence, the Rangers have to contend with some nicks and bruises at the worst time. Corey Seager separated his shoulder and will miss the game, and perhaps the entire postseason. After a brutal start, he had a solid second half to salvage his season. Now, the Rangers will have to use a non-entity at short.
Carlos Santana is also banged up with a sprained elbow. Santana is in the lineup, but has only gone 3-28 since the injury as he tries to nurse his way through the pain. Santana still has his plate discipline, but against a formidable arm in Berrios, guile won't work with Berrios aware of Santana's limitations.
The injuries put a wedge into a lineup that was humming along and finished the season third in the AL in runs. The stars are still around. Paul Goldschmidt led the league with an astounding 136 RBIs, La Cabra hit .313, and Billy Hamilton hit .279 and stole 79 bases. However, the depth of the team will be tested like never before.
Yairo Munoz was pressed into action and hit just four home runs in roughly a half season's worth of games. Brallan Perez hit zero in over 200 plate appearances. Ryan O'Hearn was sub-replacement level, and Kyle Lewis showed he needed seasoning. These players will be called upon to play prominent roles. At least two will start against the best pitcher in the league this year. It's not a confidence-inspiring bunch.
Minnesota will be without closer Nick Burdi meaning the Rangers can strike once Berrios is out of the game. Trevor May is one of the game's better relievers, but it's not an inspiring bunch aside from him. Jake Reed closed six games, racked up a lot of strikeouts, but also gave up a lot of walks. Against a patient team like Texas, that could haunt him.
Pedro Strop has fallen off some since leaving the Cubs, J.T. Chargois is another guy who strikes out more than a batter an inning with an ERA above 5.00, and Trevor Hildenberger is homer prone. With that staff, it's fair to expect a run or two scoring off them, particularly if they have to face the heart of the Texas lineup.
Minnesota's defense was superb as they had the second best zone rating in the AL. Vilema and Gordon are a spectacular duo and will gobble up the grounders Berrios allows, meaning the game will likely be won by Texas if they can get a few balls over the fence, preferably after coaxing a walk or two. In Arlington, with Paul Goldschmidt at the ready, it seems like an achievable task.
Season Series
Texas won a pair of three game sets, going 4-2 overall. Texas is 12-7 against Minnesota all time, and has not lost a series to them, winning five series and splitting a four game set in 2018.
On June 14th, Mejia hit a tying seventh-inning two-run home run, before Corey Seager took Strop deep in the eighth. The late heroics gave the Rangers a 6-5 win. In the middle game, Sano, Kepler, and Vargas took Bumgarner deep, Tom Koehler was strong, and Minnesota won handily 7-2. Texas banged 13 hits off Phil Hughes and Sonny Gray went 7 innings allowing only three runs in a 5-3 Ranger win.
In Minnesota, light hitting Luiss Gonzales and Guillorme combined to go 6-10 with five runs scored, six knocked in, two walks, and one home run as Texas routed Minnesota 18-1. The next day, despite a heroic 4-inning scoreless relief outing by Michael Tonkin, Billy Hamilton small ball against Trevor May in the eleventh—he singled, stole a base, advanced on a ground out and scored on a sac fly—allowed Texas a second series win. Berrios' complete game salvaged the finale for Minnesota.
Deciding Questions:
Will the Twins get a few home runs off Bumgarner like they did in the regular season?
Will Goldschmidt be able to have a big game against Berrios with some of his key teammates nicked up?
Can the Twins bullpen hold things down late?
Prediction: Bumgarner is strong, but not spectacular, but the bullpen picks up for him. Texas breaks open a close game late against a mediocre Minnesota bullpen. Texas 6-3.
The Texas Rangers find themselves in familiar territory, turning around a dismal start with inspiring play once the weather warmed up to earn their third consecutive playoff berth. They'll take on a playoff newcomer in the Minnesota Twins that fended off a charging Cleveland club to earn their first trip to the PBA postseason. Minnesota lost 92 and 94 games the past two seasons, with Herman deBarr turning around a sad-sack club to earn a trip to the playoffs.
Twins hitting versus Rangers pitching
The Twins feature a lineup the ranks first in steals and fourth in home runs, but only seventh in runs scored. With the 12th best on-base percentage in the league, it's a puzzling construction. The team will hit the ball over the fence. And if on base, they'll definitely steal second to make their task easier. However, getting that multi-run home run, or that key hit with runners in scoring position isn't as easy a task for the Twins as other teams. In fact, the Twins had the lowest number of plate appearances in the league with a man on first, and the fourth fewest with man in scoring position. However, to their credit, with men in scoring position they had the second most home runs in the AL.
The lineup oozes with power from the middle of the order on down. Miguel Sano is the superstar, with 42 home runs and 121 runs driven in from the middle of the order, but there are other stars too. Max Kepler and Byron Buxton each hit at least 37 home runs, Brian Dozier hit 32, and Kennys Vargas clubbed 30. The home run power flows and flows through the roster.
Also, the speed numbers are dispersed throughout the lineup. Instead of a single dynamo with a couple tertiary options, the Twins feature a host of players capable of stealing a bag and putting pressure on opponents. Engelb Vielma stole 31 bases, while Nick Gordon stole 33. Buxton and Kepler each stole in the 20s, while Dozier pilfered 18 bags. Even Miguel Sano chipped in with nine. With power to spare, and a running game designed to test opposing pitchers, it's a lineup designed to pressure opposing pitchers on multiple fronts.
The mitigating factor of the power and speed is that the power comes at a cost and the speed isn't the most efficient. The Twins were worst in the league in strikeout rate, with Sano putting up the sixth highest mark, and Kennys Vargas the ninth. Sano had the eighth highest walk rate, and was second in BABIP, indicating patience to only swing at pitches he could drive, a reluctance to cut down his swing with two strikes, and the talent to hit balls hard when he did make contact. Sano is a special batting talent.
A miniature version of Sano, at least at the plate, rests in Byron Buxton. Of the 87 qualified AL batters, Buxton also sported an elevated strikeout number, a solid walk rate, and a good BABIP indicative of speed, an ability to make hard contact, or both. However, Vargas did not have the elevated BABIP of his slugging teammates, while Dozier lacks the walk rate and BABIP. Aside from Kepler, no starter showed an inclination to avoid strikeouts.
Also, despite the stolen bases, the Twins were middle of the pack in base-stealing efficiency. While several players were among the better runners in the game, Nick Gordon dragged the team down. He was the second worst runner in baseball as he was thrown out on 19 of his 54 attempts.
Finally, even with Sano a right-hander, the team was better against right-handed pitching this year than left-handed pitching. The team sported a 0.30 point OPS increase against righties, partly because of Sano hitting better against righties than lefties somehow. In fact, the team sported several reverse splits for the year, but many lesser players tanked against lefties. Those numbers with some players reverse themselves with a broader sample, so take them with a grain of salt. However, two prominent Twins hitters, Brian Dozier, and Kennys Vargas, both struggle against lefties compared to righties.
Dozier has a .723 OPS against lefties in essentially a full season's worth of games, as he hits .229 against them. Contrast this with an .832 mark against righties. Vargas is similar. He has an impotent .707 mark against lefties compared to a solid .750 against righties.
This wouldn't be a major problem, but they'll be going up against perhaps the best postseason pitcher of our age, left-hander Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner took a small step back this year, walking a few more guys, striking out a few less, and yielding more runs. However, he was acquired for games like today and his postseason honors are remarkable.
Here are the statistics where he leads all postseason pitchers: Wins (6), ERA (1.77), Winning Percentage (6-0), Complete Games (1), Shutouts (1), Innings (45.2), strikeouts (49), Walks per nine (1.2), walk rate (3.45%), strikeout rate (24.71%), and FIP (2.61). He's magnificence made flesh and will be going up against untested youngsters on Minnesota.
The Twins have faced Bumgarner twice this season, going 1-1 against him. Bumgarner allowed three home runs in one start, including to Kepler and Vargas, taking the loss despite striking out 11 and walking nobody. Bumgarner went an efficient 6 innings in his next start, picking up the win in an 18-1 rout.
Texas' bullpen is solid, but skews heavily right-handed, with five arms working between a 3.75 and a 4.81 ERA. Both Matt Bush and Keona Kela throw flames, but Bush has been able to harness his control and give up fewer walks and home runs this season. Sam Dyson has been excellent, and led the AL in ground ball rate among players with 50 or more innings. He's fantastic if you need a strikeout or double play. Jeremy Jeffress relinquished the closer role this year, and lowered both his walks and strikeouts removed from the pressures of the ninth inning. Josh Staumont strikes out most and walks the rest. He'll likely only pitch in an emergency.
The bullpen's only lefty for close games will be Alex Claudio. After an All-Star nod as a setup man in 2018, Claudio earned a trip as a closer this year. His BABIPs against are consistently low, he doesn't yield home runs, and his changeup is so good that he uses it as an out pitch against lefties and righties alike. No pitcher save possibly Masahiko Morifuku gets so much from an aresnal the tops out at 85 miles-an-hour.
Texas' bullpen worked to a 3.00 ERA against the Twins this year, second best amongst AL bullpens, including a pair of wins and saves in all four of Texas' victories, a fact that is ominous for Minnesota.
The bullpen, like Bumgarner, has been oft-tested and generally performed very favorably. Keona Kela was enshrined in playoff lore back in 2017 when he came on to preserve a one-run lead with two men on and two outs in the ninth and he struck out Gary Sanchez of the Yankees to preserve the lead.
It will be up to stars like Sano to break through against that pitching staff.
The Twins don't make much contact that lands in play, but when they do, Texas' defense isn't good. Brallan Perez will likely start at shortstop, a place he doesn't have much experience in and his skills are stretched. Carlos Santana will possibly start in right field, where his bat plays, but he's a clear defensive liability. Only Billy Hamilton grades as a sterling defender, though La Cabra, Francisco Mejia, is good behind the plate, and Paul Goldschmidt had a fine 2018.
The Twins will likely employ Niko Goodrum and Eddie Rosario off the bench. Rosario has been pretty good against righties in his career, though he's only pinch hit twice this season.
Rangers hitting versus Twins pitching
If you need a victory in a winner-take-all contest, sending out the league's ERA leader is a great place to turn. Highlighted in last week's Game of the Week, Jose Berrios is a superstar and on the short list of AL starters you want starting this game. Firmly in command of his fastball and curveball, La Maquina has been a strikeout machine that finished behind only Carlos Rodon and Corey Kluber in the AL pecking order.
One of Berrios' four complete games this year was a gem against Texas. On August 15th, Berrios went the distance allowing a pair of runs, walking nobody and whiffing nine in a masterpiece, so he has experience being at the height of his powers and vanquishing the Rangers.
Aside from Berrios' excellence, the Rangers have to contend with some nicks and bruises at the worst time. Corey Seager separated his shoulder and will miss the game, and perhaps the entire postseason. After a brutal start, he had a solid second half to salvage his season. Now, the Rangers will have to use a non-entity at short.
Carlos Santana is also banged up with a sprained elbow. Santana is in the lineup, but has only gone 3-28 since the injury as he tries to nurse his way through the pain. Santana still has his plate discipline, but against a formidable arm in Berrios, guile won't work with Berrios aware of Santana's limitations.
The injuries put a wedge into a lineup that was humming along and finished the season third in the AL in runs. The stars are still around. Paul Goldschmidt led the league with an astounding 136 RBIs, La Cabra hit .313, and Billy Hamilton hit .279 and stole 79 bases. However, the depth of the team will be tested like never before.
Yairo Munoz was pressed into action and hit just four home runs in roughly a half season's worth of games. Brallan Perez hit zero in over 200 plate appearances. Ryan O'Hearn was sub-replacement level, and Kyle Lewis showed he needed seasoning. These players will be called upon to play prominent roles. At least two will start against the best pitcher in the league this year. It's not a confidence-inspiring bunch.
Minnesota will be without closer Nick Burdi meaning the Rangers can strike once Berrios is out of the game. Trevor May is one of the game's better relievers, but it's not an inspiring bunch aside from him. Jake Reed closed six games, racked up a lot of strikeouts, but also gave up a lot of walks. Against a patient team like Texas, that could haunt him.
Pedro Strop has fallen off some since leaving the Cubs, J.T. Chargois is another guy who strikes out more than a batter an inning with an ERA above 5.00, and Trevor Hildenberger is homer prone. With that staff, it's fair to expect a run or two scoring off them, particularly if they have to face the heart of the Texas lineup.
Minnesota's defense was superb as they had the second best zone rating in the AL. Vilema and Gordon are a spectacular duo and will gobble up the grounders Berrios allows, meaning the game will likely be won by Texas if they can get a few balls over the fence, preferably after coaxing a walk or two. In Arlington, with Paul Goldschmidt at the ready, it seems like an achievable task.
Season Series
Texas won a pair of three game sets, going 4-2 overall. Texas is 12-7 against Minnesota all time, and has not lost a series to them, winning five series and splitting a four game set in 2018.
On June 14th, Mejia hit a tying seventh-inning two-run home run, before Corey Seager took Strop deep in the eighth. The late heroics gave the Rangers a 6-5 win. In the middle game, Sano, Kepler, and Vargas took Bumgarner deep, Tom Koehler was strong, and Minnesota won handily 7-2. Texas banged 13 hits off Phil Hughes and Sonny Gray went 7 innings allowing only three runs in a 5-3 Ranger win.
In Minnesota, light hitting Luiss Gonzales and Guillorme combined to go 6-10 with five runs scored, six knocked in, two walks, and one home run as Texas routed Minnesota 18-1. The next day, despite a heroic 4-inning scoreless relief outing by Michael Tonkin, Billy Hamilton small ball against Trevor May in the eleventh—he singled, stole a base, advanced on a ground out and scored on a sac fly—allowed Texas a second series win. Berrios' complete game salvaged the finale for Minnesota.
Deciding Questions:
Will the Twins get a few home runs off Bumgarner like they did in the regular season?
Will Goldschmidt be able to have a big game against Berrios with some of his key teammates nicked up?
Can the Twins bullpen hold things down late?
Prediction: Bumgarner is strong, but not spectacular, but the bullpen picks up for him. Texas breaks open a close game late against a mediocre Minnesota bullpen. Texas 6-3.