Post by dbackhon on Aug 29, 2018 8:22:10 GMT -5
Mets vs Rockies
Both the Rockies and the Mets enter the Wild Card relying heavily on offense, having lined their best pitchers to start in the game, and boast previous playoff experience. However, despite these surface level similarities the two teams could not have clinched their playoff spots more differently. The Rockies dominated in the months of August and September (posting a .636 Winning percentage over that timeframe) and slowly cementing and then commanding the NL Wild Card race, the Mets struggled in Sepetember and enter into the playoffs thanks to both a surge in the last week of the season and the collapse of the Atlanta Braves.
Both the Rockies and the Mets enter the Wild Card relying heavily on offense, having lined their best pitchers to start in the game, and boast previous playoff experience. However, despite these surface level similarities the two teams could not have clinched their playoff spots more differently. The Rockies dominated in the months of August and September (posting a .636 Winning percentage over that timeframe) and slowly cementing and then commanding the NL Wild Card race, the Mets struggled in Sepetember and enter into the playoffs thanks to both a surge in the last week of the season and the collapse of the Atlanta Braves.
Rockies Bats vs Mets Pitching
There isn't any clearer mismatch in this game than the Rockies Hitting vs the Mets Pitching. The Rockies - helped in part by Coors Field - boasted the second best offense in the National League this year with 892 runs scored, and the have the most home runs of any National League team with an astronomical 281 home runs in 2019: an average of 1.72 rockie dingers per game. However the Rockies offense is just a collection of big dumb thumpers pounding the ball through the thin Denver air, they also feature complete hitters and genuine superstars in Nolan Arenado, David Dahl, and Charlie Blackmon.
The Mets counter righty Jacob DeGrom (6-12, 4.96 ERA) who is coming off of a year where he has struggled to fill the shoes left by injured Mets ace Noah "Thor" Syndergaard. DeGrom is likely the best option for the Mets in this NL Wild Card game he is far from the ideal candidate as the Rockies have gone 67-40 against right-handed pitching in 2019. In addition DeGrom has struggled against the Rockies in two starts this year giving up 7 runs over 7.0 innings in a start at Citi Field and 6 earned runs over 5 innings at Coors on August 23rd. The Mets pitching woes extend beyond the starters as the entire current pitching staff features only one left-handed pitcher - Specialist David Coulombe - on the roster and he has not pitched a full inning since August 30th. In addition DeGrom has struggled against the Rockies in two starts this year giving up 7 runs over 7.0 innings in a start at Citi Field and 6 earned runs over 5 innings at Coors on August 23rd Furthermore, the Mets pitching has been somewhere close to woeful all year, giving up the second most runs of any NL pitching staff, as well as rotation and bullpen ERAs hovering around 5. This is going to be a tall order for the Mets staff especially at Coors Field. Plain and simple, if the Mets are going to win this game they are going to need the performance of a lifetime from 31-year-old Jacob DeGrom... And will need their bullpen to remain hold onto any leads the get for dear life. However this just isn't something the Mets have gone consistently all year and I don't think they are going to start here.
Advantage: Seriously Favors Rockies
The Mets counter righty Jacob DeGrom (6-12, 4.96 ERA) who is coming off of a year where he has struggled to fill the shoes left by injured Mets ace Noah "Thor" Syndergaard. DeGrom is likely the best option for the Mets in this NL Wild Card game he is far from the ideal candidate as the Rockies have gone 67-40 against right-handed pitching in 2019. In addition DeGrom has struggled against the Rockies in two starts this year giving up 7 runs over 7.0 innings in a start at Citi Field and 6 earned runs over 5 innings at Coors on August 23rd. The Mets pitching woes extend beyond the starters as the entire current pitching staff features only one left-handed pitcher - Specialist David Coulombe - on the roster and he has not pitched a full inning since August 30th. In addition DeGrom has struggled against the Rockies in two starts this year giving up 7 runs over 7.0 innings in a start at Citi Field and 6 earned runs over 5 innings at Coors on August 23rd Furthermore, the Mets pitching has been somewhere close to woeful all year, giving up the second most runs of any NL pitching staff, as well as rotation and bullpen ERAs hovering around 5. This is going to be a tall order for the Mets staff especially at Coors Field. Plain and simple, if the Mets are going to win this game they are going to need the performance of a lifetime from 31-year-old Jacob DeGrom... And will need their bullpen to remain hold onto any leads the get for dear life. However this just isn't something the Mets have gone consistently all year and I don't think they are going to start here.
Advantage: Seriously Favors Rockies
Mets Offense vs Rockies Pitching
The star of the Mets lineup is probably Yoenis Cespedes, who now has two straight seasons with 40+ HR, and is a bona fide superstar nationally. Michael Conforto is also a coming off of a monster year with 62 extra base hits and an OBP of nearly .400. However, while Cespedes is a national star he is not nearly as strong against Right-Handed pitching as he is against Lefties, and Conforto has a nagging day-to-day injury which may limit his ability.
The Rockies counter with their ace Michael Fulmer (7-8 3.72 ERA). Fulmer has been remarkably consistent for the Rockies over the past three years keeping his ERA below 4 in each of the past three years but is yet to make a PBA All-star team. However, while the starter Fulmer is solid and clearly the Rockies best choice to start to game (clearly recognized by GM Eric who utilized a bizarre six-man rotation so that Fulmer would start in the one-game playoff) the bullpen is far from spectacular. All but one member of the Rockie bullpen has an ERA above 4 including the eternally unlucky closer Greg Holland and his 5.28 ERA.
Advantage: Mets
Keys to Victory
METS
While not as eye-popping as the Colorado offense (which is admittedly somewhat inflated by Coors Field) the New York Mets offense is nothing to slouch at. The Mets rank in the top-5 in the NL in AVG, OBP, Runs Scored, and Home Runs and what they lack pure star power they make up for with remarkable consistency. In fact, courtesy of the OSA, seven of the eight position player starters for the New York Mets rank in the top-10 in the PBA. Names like Nick Senzel, Ahmad Rosario, and Dominic Smith may not be national attention getters yet but they have been extremely solid this year and make it difficult to find a weakness in the Mets lineup.
The star of the Mets lineup is probably Yoenis Cespedes, who now has two straight seasons with 40+ HR, and is a bona fide superstar nationally. Michael Conforto is also a coming off of a monster year with 62 extra base hits and an OBP of nearly .400. However, while Cespedes is a national star he is not nearly as strong against Right-Handed pitching as he is against Lefties, and Conforto has a nagging day-to-day injury which may limit his ability.
The Rockies counter with their ace Michael Fulmer (7-8 3.72 ERA). Fulmer has been remarkably consistent for the Rockies over the past three years keeping his ERA below 4 in each of the past three years but is yet to make a PBA All-star team. However, while the starter Fulmer is solid and clearly the Rockies best choice to start to game (clearly recognized by GM Eric who utilized a bizarre six-man rotation so that Fulmer would start in the one-game playoff) the bullpen is far from spectacular. All but one member of the Rockie bullpen has an ERA above 4 including the eternally unlucky closer Greg Holland and his 5.28 ERA.
Advantage: Mets
Keys to Victory
METS
- DeGrom needs to go deep into the game. Not a gem but a Quality Start is necessary for them to win.
- The Mets shouldn't swing for the fences and force their offense. Get on base consistently and the big hits will come
- Try to chase Fulmer out of the game early and expose the weaker Rockie Bullpen
ROCKIES
- Establish an early lead.
- Keep Fulmer on the mound for as long as you can.
- Allow the Lefty hitters to be aggressive against the Mets RH pitching staff. Dahl and Blackmon in particular seem primed to have a monster game.
