Post by Commissioner Erick on Aug 31, 2018 18:11:05 GMT -5
Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins did the unthinkable in the Wild Card round, annihilating postseason stalwart Madison Bumgarner and dominating a good Texas lineup to advance to the ALDS. Their reward is a trip against a juggernaut of an opponent, a 111-win Houston Astros dynamo that featured an explosive offense, an excellent rotation, and an elite bullpen. Without Jose Berrios for more than two games, it will be tough to imagine the Twins keeping up the Astros hitters at bay, and the Astros' late inning arms are better than anyone this side of New York.
Twins hitting versus Astros pitching
The Twins proved they could score on anybody, eventually blasting Madison Bumgarner in the middle innings of the Wild Card Game to advance to face Houston. Their offense is blessed with power and speed, and though it wasn't amazing against lefties in the regular season, again, they blasted Madison Bumgarner in the last round.
Houston wasn't great at throwing runners out, and the stolen base numbers against each starting pitcher were poor, aside from Brady Rodgers. Steals may be an angle the Twins will need to exploit, and they did in the regular season, stealing five of six bags against the Astros.
The problem is that the Twins couldn't get enough men on base. Houston has the third highest strikeout percentage in the AL, and the Twins strikeout the most of any team in the league. As a result, they had trouble putting the ball in play against the Astros, and had the lowest on-base percentage against Houston among AL teams outside of, surprisingly enough, the Yankees. The Twins may still steal the occasional base when they reach, and club the occasional home run, but it's not the right combination to string together big innings.
Dallas Keuchel will likely begin the series, and he's fourth among AL pitchers this season in preventing home runs, and is second if including last year. He lead baseball in ground ball rate among pitchers who threw at least 105 innings. The Twins have the speed to not be dead to rights on balls pounded into the ground, but it's tough to envision them blasting a ton of home runs to blow up Keuchel in the game, and tougher to see them stringing hits together.
Houston's other pitchers are more vulnerable. Lance McCullers Jr. led the league in walks for the second season in his career, but he also struck out well over a batter an inning and limited home runs. He allowed only three hits while walking three and striking out 10 in 8.1 shutout frames against the Twins in a start this year, and Minnesota is precisely the team his volatile skill set is made to exploit. With Houston's deep staff, he may not get a start and pitch out of the pen.
Joe Musgrove led the league in wins this year with 20, and showed remarkable platoon splits against righties and lefties alike, with each hitting .240 with a .406 slugging percentage. Righties got on base ever so slightly more, .308 to .306. He's been solid across the board, with a good number of ground balls, a good number of strikeouts, an acceptable rate of home runs allowed and an acceptable walk rate. It's possible that solid won't cut it against the Twins.
Sean Red-Foley was like a miniature version of Musgrove, in that he put up similar numbers while only pitching around half the season in the majors. He's been decent against the Twins in a pair of starts this year.
Brady Rodgers may get the start over Lance McCullers Jr., but he may be the worst option to face the Twins. He has strong walk and strikeout rates, but his extreme home run numbers portend trouble against a lineup with Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, and the gang.
The bullpen is excellent, and should play well against the Twins. Everybody walks roughly four batters per nine, strikes out over a batter an inning, and is league average in home runs.
Luge Gregerson and Chris Devenski are the two setup men for the team, whose profiles are a touch different. Gregerson has avoided the long ball this year, allowing fewer than one home run per nine. He's not as much of a ground ball pitcher like he was in the past, and he strikes out fewer batters than he once did, but he's a strong option late.
Chris Devenski may be Houston's best relief arm. He struck out 108 batters in 82 innings, while allowing under a home run per nine, and walking just 8.1% of opponents. The popular reliever is a two-time All Star, made more effective by his ability to work multiple innings as well. With a 2.4 WAR campaign, he was third in the league in reliever WAR.
Houston was one of the worst defensive teams in the league, with no position grading out positively in zone rating aside from +0.07 for first basemen. Second base was a particular trouble spot as Jose Altuve's range has waned. It shouldn't be a huge issue against a team that tries to slug as much as the Twins, but it may allow some of their speedier hitters atop the order to get on and try to get the running-game in motion.
It's possible to imagine scenarios where Minnesota bombs away against some of the league-average home run hitters, but the Astros strike out so many batters, that the Twins may not make the contact needed to hit those home runs. The matchup may hinge on whether the Twins can blast Musgrove and Reid-Foley, and the middle of the Astros pen.
Astros hitting versus Twins pitching
Plating exactly 1000 runs, Houston led the PBA in most runs scored in a season of all time. They also set the record for highest wOBA by a wide margin so it wasn't sequencing luck that brought about the runs. The Astros offense is a machine, stocked up extremely dangerous hitters at the top of their game.
Daniel Murphy led the league in batting average with .338, and he was fourth in RBIs with 122. He was also second in doubles with 58. Alex Bregman was second to Mike Trout in OBP with a .411 clip. Carlos Correa led the league in home runs with 48. Five players had at least 98 RBIs. Four players had at least 300 at bats and batted over .300. Everyone is producing, and for the most part, that's cause everyone is getting on base.
George Springer and Josh Reddick are the only hitters with on-base percentages below the lofty mark of .350. Reddick hits ninth and has 25 home runs. Springer his second, but has 32 home runs. Houston is able to keep the chains moving with remarkably disciplined hitters, and the rare weaker links still get on base over .32% of the time and have terrific power.
Daniel Murphy has really stirred Houston's offense. Not as patient as the rest of his teammates, his bat-to-ball skills are elite, and he never strikes out putting pressure on opposing defenses. Always a prolific doubles hitter, he cranked out a stupendous 58 of them. Also, after topping out at 13 home runs in a season, he bashed 34 this year. He has a higher average on the road and more doubles, but he's taken a shining to Minute Maid Park, where he has 20 of his home runs.
Mike Zunino and Hunter Pence give the team some right handed pop against lefties, with Tony Kemp being a pinch-running option in that event. The ability to transform the lineup with platoons further solidifies Houston's resistance to potential weaknesses.
Unfortunately, with Jose Berrios limited to two starts at most, there are some weaknesses in the Twins rotation, though the Twins never really got blown away in their starts against the Astros. In his one start against Houston this year, Berrios went 7.1 innings allowing one run on one walk with 10 strikeouts. He managed that because he has the explosive arsenal needed to attack a historic lineup.
Julian Merriweather will get the start, a former waiver claim who worked a solid year this year. He produced a 4.28 ERA last year, and a 4.36 mark this year, predicated on a good amount of strikeouts and an average amount of home runs and walks allowed. He really handled lefties this year, though, which is good against an Astros team that can overload its role players. The problem is that its best hitters are mostly right-handed and Merriweather allowed a .786 mark to them. Josh Reddick and Daniel Murphy nonetheless tagged Merriweather for a double and home run each, assaulting him for six runs in 5 innings in an Astros win.
Felix Jorge is stingier with the walks and strikes out fewer batters, as he's definitely a pitch-to-contact ground baller. That may be a better strategy against an Astros team that is the best in the AL in avoiding strikeouts, and he had a reasonably effective start against Houston this year.
Phil Hughes is also stingy with the walks, but gives up a massive amount of home runs, an even 2.0 per nine. Against some teams, being magnificent with control would be enough to inspire confidence, but Hughes' lack of stuff and desire to pound the zone is troublesome against elite batters like Houston's.
The bullpen of the Twins will be rested thanks to Trevor Hildenberger going three innings in the Wild Card Game. Jake Reed may be one of the worst closers in the league, but Trevor May is a strong reliever. striking out about a batter an inning, and avoids home runs despite giving up a lot of fly balls. He works at the top of the zone a lot, which at times surprises hitters, and he drops a curveball that works out of the same pitch tunnel. The Twins may feel more comfortable with a lead in the eighth inning than the ninth.
Season Series
Houston won the season series 4-2, and is 13-5 all time versus Minnesota.
The Twins won the first two of six before Houston won the next four, all in late August and early September. Jose Berrios was dominant in one win, and Max Kepler had a huge game as the Twins battered Brady Rodgers in the other win. From there, Houston's pitching shone through as they won four relatively low-scoring contests.
Deciding Questions:
Can Minnesota punish Houston's lesser starting pitchers? If they can get some home runs off Houston's unspectacular mid-rotation, they can make things very interesting.
The Twins will throw out some pitchers that pound the zone. Will those pitchers keep the Astros sluggers in the park, with Minnesota's defense able to convert balls in play into outs? How Phil Hughes handles Carlos Correa may be a pivotal matchup.
Will Houston be able to take leads into the late innings? Armed with an excellent bullpen, they can shorten games either if their offense is playing up to its level or if its starters stymie the Twins.
Prediction: There may be a game the Twins take off Reid-Foley or Musgrove, or maybe McCullers is all over the place. It's hard to see all three of them struggling, with the Twins also slowing down Houston's offense. Best bet is Minnesota blows out Houton when Berrios starts, and loses every other game. Astros in 5
Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees
The New York Yankees, after two seasons tortured with Wild Card Game losses—plus an agonizing play-in game needed just to make the postseason one year—are finally awarded with some margin for error. Armed with an armada of sluggers that's a little bit more potent than their previous collection of sluggers, and armed with a bullpen that's just as dominant as their previous string of dominant relievers, the Yankees have cruised to an AL East championship. Their reward is a date with the defending champion Chicago White Sox, featuring some of the best top-end talent in baseball. The contest may be a fun contrast of several spectacular stars squaring off against a deep collection of very talented players.
White Sox hitting versus Yankees pitching
The White Sox have some of the best high-end talent in baseball, with several superstar hitters. Yoan Moncada was second in the AL in WAR this year, really blossoming into a special player. He impressed as a rookie and had a good second year and postseason, but was spectacular in 2019. He hit .297, a career high, stealing 58 of 65 bases. His on-base percentage was .400, which thanks to the potency of the White Sox lineup, led to him leading the league in runs with a massive 137. His great patience and lightning quick bat make him a nearly impossible out.
Andrew Beintnedi led the league in hits and RBIs last season and was even better this year. He set career highs in every major offensive stat aside from doubles and stolen bases, as he's bulkier now than he used to be. Benintendi has maybe the quickest bat in the game, and with his strong frame, makes him a nearly perfect hitter. Already a superstar, it will be shocking if he doesn't win an MVP in his lifetime.
Rafael Devers is the third young superstar of the group. He tapped into his power this season, blasting 32 homers and even stealing 16 bases. He too has improved his bat speed, making him a relatively low strikeout slugger. Devers has traded some of that power for bat control and gives the White Sox three incredibly tough outs atop the lineup, all with varying amounts of speed, and all with at least good power. As each of them has such great bat control, they're virtually strategy-proof. In fact, the number of hitters Benintendi has at least 10 at bats against and less than a .300 average is staggering, as of the 37 pitchers he's faced in that sample, only eight have held him to an average under .300. Only Kyle Hendricks has held him to an average under .231, suggesting maybe advanced command and pitchability is the only kryptonite for hitters like Benintendi.
Fortunately for the Yankees, the rest of the White Sox are mortal. Tim Anderson has good surface stats and had a good 2018, but was underwhelming this year with an OBP under .300. Eugenio Suarez struggled since coming over in a trade with Cincinnati, and Brandon Guyer's gains against righties last year fell back this year. Each has talent for sure, but none is a sure thing.
First base has been a persistent bugaboo for the White Sox, especially with Eric Hosmer's dismal 2018 postseason fresh in Mike Ball's mind. Rookie Brendan McKay had 11 home runs in 177 plate appearances with a .280 average. Another young phenom to add to a core that's still preposterously young, McKay may be the next star bat Chicago will use to augment their lineup. He's also a rookie with under 200 major league plate appearances.
Even if the supporting cast can't help, if the White Sox don't suffer a major injury like they did with Benintendi early last postseason, they'll be a threat to produce runs. They're offense carried them last year and even with some question marks, it's a wholly more dynamic version this time around.
Fortunately the Yankees have stuff and pitchability in spades. In Luis Severino they have a legitimate ace. Severino has improved his command and his changeup this season to set career highs in walk rate and strikeout rate, with home runs increases with the run environment.
Importantly, he's had some huge success against this iteration of the White Sox. He spun a complete game shutout versus them last August 19th despite only three strikeouts, showing terrific movement to allow only two extra base hits. This August, he worked 6 strong innings, allowing two runs, walking none, striking out five, and only losing to a one-hit, 8-inning performance by the masterful Carlos Martinez. Finally, in his last start, Severino spun 7 innings of one-run ball, walking one, whiffing seven, and beating Martinez. Severino's brilliance gives the Yankees a great chance.
Nathan Eovaldi, despite seeing his walk rate increase, and his home run rate elevate this year, has had unusual success against the White Sox as well. He worked 7 innings of two-run ball last April, and last August. He only faced Chicago once this season, but despite five walks in 5 innings, plus six hits, he tamed Benintendi and Devers and has been one of the most successful pitchers against Benintendi all time.
Masahiro Tanaka had a rough Wild Card Game in 2017, though he settled down from a rough start to work 7 strong innings last postseason before the Yankees fell to the Indians. Stady as ever, Tanaka misses the middle of bats, doesn't walk hitters, and actually increased his strikeouts per nine this year.
Trevor Bauer did not have a strong year out of the pen, but with another late-season injury to Michael Pineda, will get a start most likely.
The pen for the Yankees shines as it lead the league in ERA. Aroldis Chapman had a third straight dominant year where he lead the league in saves, Dellin Betances came back from a biceps strain to strike out 67 hitters in 38 innings, and Jonathan Holder allowed 16 walks in 73 innings while striking out 97. In the middle innings, Nick Runeblow continued to add to the Yankees collection of pitchers who strikeout over a batter an inning and limit walks. Runeblow added to that with a .224 BABIP, allowing him to post a 3.21 ERA.
The rest of the Yankees middle relievers and long men are mediocre, so the Yankees will be best served getting length from their starters. Fortunately, they have the rare collection of talent to make that strategy work, even against a team like the White Sox. This matchup of Yankees arms versus White Sox bats is a truly fascinating one.
Yankees hitting versus White Sox pitching
The White Sox led the league in starters ERA this year with a wonderful collection of talent.
It all starts with the maestro, Carlos Martinez, who secured himself as a living legend after a season for the ages in 2018. Not as prodigious last year, Martinez still led the league in WHIP, led the league in BABIP, and if not for Jose Berrios reaching MLB puberty, would have led the league in ERA.
Martinez has exceptional command, a moving high-90s fastball, a dazzling curveball, and an excellent changeup. That arsenal simply misses the fat part of bats. As a result, he led the league in fewest home runs allowed per nine innings last year, and his elevation this year is commensurate with the environment for home runs increasing.
He's also pitched some masterpieces against the Yankees in the past. Last April, he twirled 7.1 innings of shutout ball, walking two and whiffing 11. He followed that up with an absolute gem in August, a complete-game one-hit shutout, where was walked one, struck out nine, and thoroughly outclassed the Yankees. It was a sterling performance by a master at the height of his powers.
In August of this year, he threw his third outing against the Yankees where he worked at least 7.1 shutout innings, this time going 8, allowing just one hit, walking one, and fanning nine, to dominate the Yanks.
Finally, on September 27th, the Yankees were able to break through, bashing three solo home runs in 6.1 innings. He nonetheless walked nary a batter, and fanned six.
The totals for the four starts: 30.2 innings, three runs, 35 strikeouts, four walks, no runs scoring outside of home runs. Martinez has absolutely dominated the Yankees and it may take more than a stray solo home run or two to beat him.
A.J. Cole will also get starts, as he's showcased himself to be a young ace in the making. He limits home runs, limits walks, gets strikeouts, limits damage on balls-in-play, and as he showed last postseason, isn't scared of playoff pressure, working to a 1.96 ERA to help the White Sox to a title.
Carlos Rodon is vulnerable to the long ball, the only blemish for a dazzling pitcher. When he keeps the ball in the park, he dominates hitters. His 245 strikeouts led the AL, achieving the feat in merely 195 innings. He limited his walk rate from last year, and lowered his BABIP against. Against a slugging team like the Yankees, his ability to keep the ball in the park will be enormous.
Eduardo Rodriguez is the most unheralded arm, but outside of Martinez, may be the most consistently reliable. He struck out 183 men in 190 innings, but is more known for keeping the ball in the park and posting miniscule walk rates. Despite a 4.02 ERA, he won 17 games and was eighth in FIP at 3.71.
The White Sox bullpen is vulnerable though. Seventh in ERA, only two arms had an ERA below 3.93, Will Smith and Arodys Vizcaino, both of whom had miserably ineffective 2018 postseasons. Tony Zych had a strong year as closer, but struggles with home runs and isn't playoff tested. This may be a weak spot.
In fact, only Martinez and Cole had major success among White Sox pitchers last year as the offense did most of the heavy lifting.
This is dangerous when facing a Yankees team that slugged a whopping 293 home runs. Their lineup features one hitter with under 20 home runs this year, Didi Gregorious, who hit 16. The Yankees have always slugged, but it's a more well rounded offense with hitters who get on base more this year. Esteban Robles came aboard and has a .371 OBP for example, a huge help for a team that needed guys on base. Gleyber Torres has ascended to the leadoff spot thanks to an OBP of .398. Torres is a superstar and Robles gave the team a well-rounded bat. It's allowed the club to take off.
Gary Sanchez, Ji-man Choi, Aaron Judge, and Clint Frazier all bat between a range of .236 to .255. Judge hit .225 last year, and Frazier .231. They're productive players, but their presence led to a slugging-heavy lineup in need of some balance. Credit to Greg Masceri for taking Hal Steinbrener's checkbook and solving the problem.
The danger is that against a team like the White Sox, those high-strikeout power hitters aren't going to be able to produce. The Yankees will need the bat control to handle Martinez, Cole, and Rodriguez. As such, Robles may be the key to the series for the Yankees. Whether or not he can get hits when Torres is on, and get on base for the sluggers behind him will be huge. The questions of how they'll fare against this staff is also a fascination.
Season Series
Chicago leads the season series 4-3 this year and 11-9 all-time, including 8-5 since hitting their stride last year.
A.J. Cole and three relievers combined on a two-hit shutout in August and despite the Sox mustering only one run against four Yankees pitchers, persevered 1-0. The Yankees captured the middle game when Tanaka and three relievers worked a strong game, outpitching Andrew Suarez. The bottom five hitters in the White Sox lineup that day went 0-16. Martinez pitched his 8-inning gem in the finale to take the series for the White Sox.
In late September, the two heavyweights split with the Yankees winning the first two and the Yankees capturing the last two. The White Sox got a couple of runs off the Yankees in bullpen with a Gregorious error assisting their efforts. They couldn't come all the way back though, and a decent outing from Tanaka resulted in his second win over the White Sox. In the second game, Severino pitched a gem, Torres, Sanchez, and Dustin Fowler took Martinez deep, and the Yanks ran up the score against the White Sox bullpen.
In the third game, Benintendi got a hit off Chapman, and Greg Bird misplayed a grounder for an error allowing the first two to reach. Andrew McCutchen doubled in both men to break a 2-2 tie, giving the White Sox a 4-2 win. In the finale, the White Sox bullpen shone, getting 3.1 shutout innings from Tommy Kahnle, Smith, and Zych to secure a 7-5 win.
Deciding Questions
Can the Yankees have success against Cole and Rodriguez? They may be able to get dingers off Rodon, and Martinez may be a lost cause. How will they do against the other two?
The White Sox like to use pitch counts and make sure their arms don't go deep. How will their bullpen do against a terrific offense?
Masahiro Tanaka has been touch and go in a few Wild Card starts. Can he tame the Chicago lineup into the sixth inning?
Prediction: The White Sox pitching has struggled in the postseason, and I worry about Rodon against the Yankees. That being said, the Yankees bats have also struggled in the postseason, and Chicago's arms are extremely talented. In the end, I trust the White Sox offense a bit better than the Yankees offense. New York will win the close games, but Chicago will win the final one: White Sox in 7
The Minnesota Twins did the unthinkable in the Wild Card round, annihilating postseason stalwart Madison Bumgarner and dominating a good Texas lineup to advance to the ALDS. Their reward is a trip against a juggernaut of an opponent, a 111-win Houston Astros dynamo that featured an explosive offense, an excellent rotation, and an elite bullpen. Without Jose Berrios for more than two games, it will be tough to imagine the Twins keeping up the Astros hitters at bay, and the Astros' late inning arms are better than anyone this side of New York.
Twins hitting versus Astros pitching
The Twins proved they could score on anybody, eventually blasting Madison Bumgarner in the middle innings of the Wild Card Game to advance to face Houston. Their offense is blessed with power and speed, and though it wasn't amazing against lefties in the regular season, again, they blasted Madison Bumgarner in the last round.
Houston wasn't great at throwing runners out, and the stolen base numbers against each starting pitcher were poor, aside from Brady Rodgers. Steals may be an angle the Twins will need to exploit, and they did in the regular season, stealing five of six bags against the Astros.
The problem is that the Twins couldn't get enough men on base. Houston has the third highest strikeout percentage in the AL, and the Twins strikeout the most of any team in the league. As a result, they had trouble putting the ball in play against the Astros, and had the lowest on-base percentage against Houston among AL teams outside of, surprisingly enough, the Yankees. The Twins may still steal the occasional base when they reach, and club the occasional home run, but it's not the right combination to string together big innings.
Dallas Keuchel will likely begin the series, and he's fourth among AL pitchers this season in preventing home runs, and is second if including last year. He lead baseball in ground ball rate among pitchers who threw at least 105 innings. The Twins have the speed to not be dead to rights on balls pounded into the ground, but it's tough to envision them blasting a ton of home runs to blow up Keuchel in the game, and tougher to see them stringing hits together.
Houston's other pitchers are more vulnerable. Lance McCullers Jr. led the league in walks for the second season in his career, but he also struck out well over a batter an inning and limited home runs. He allowed only three hits while walking three and striking out 10 in 8.1 shutout frames against the Twins in a start this year, and Minnesota is precisely the team his volatile skill set is made to exploit. With Houston's deep staff, he may not get a start and pitch out of the pen.
Joe Musgrove led the league in wins this year with 20, and showed remarkable platoon splits against righties and lefties alike, with each hitting .240 with a .406 slugging percentage. Righties got on base ever so slightly more, .308 to .306. He's been solid across the board, with a good number of ground balls, a good number of strikeouts, an acceptable rate of home runs allowed and an acceptable walk rate. It's possible that solid won't cut it against the Twins.
Sean Red-Foley was like a miniature version of Musgrove, in that he put up similar numbers while only pitching around half the season in the majors. He's been decent against the Twins in a pair of starts this year.
Brady Rodgers may get the start over Lance McCullers Jr., but he may be the worst option to face the Twins. He has strong walk and strikeout rates, but his extreme home run numbers portend trouble against a lineup with Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, and the gang.
The bullpen is excellent, and should play well against the Twins. Everybody walks roughly four batters per nine, strikes out over a batter an inning, and is league average in home runs.
Luge Gregerson and Chris Devenski are the two setup men for the team, whose profiles are a touch different. Gregerson has avoided the long ball this year, allowing fewer than one home run per nine. He's not as much of a ground ball pitcher like he was in the past, and he strikes out fewer batters than he once did, but he's a strong option late.
Chris Devenski may be Houston's best relief arm. He struck out 108 batters in 82 innings, while allowing under a home run per nine, and walking just 8.1% of opponents. The popular reliever is a two-time All Star, made more effective by his ability to work multiple innings as well. With a 2.4 WAR campaign, he was third in the league in reliever WAR.
Houston was one of the worst defensive teams in the league, with no position grading out positively in zone rating aside from +0.07 for first basemen. Second base was a particular trouble spot as Jose Altuve's range has waned. It shouldn't be a huge issue against a team that tries to slug as much as the Twins, but it may allow some of their speedier hitters atop the order to get on and try to get the running-game in motion.
It's possible to imagine scenarios where Minnesota bombs away against some of the league-average home run hitters, but the Astros strike out so many batters, that the Twins may not make the contact needed to hit those home runs. The matchup may hinge on whether the Twins can blast Musgrove and Reid-Foley, and the middle of the Astros pen.
Astros hitting versus Twins pitching
Plating exactly 1000 runs, Houston led the PBA in most runs scored in a season of all time. They also set the record for highest wOBA by a wide margin so it wasn't sequencing luck that brought about the runs. The Astros offense is a machine, stocked up extremely dangerous hitters at the top of their game.
Daniel Murphy led the league in batting average with .338, and he was fourth in RBIs with 122. He was also second in doubles with 58. Alex Bregman was second to Mike Trout in OBP with a .411 clip. Carlos Correa led the league in home runs with 48. Five players had at least 98 RBIs. Four players had at least 300 at bats and batted over .300. Everyone is producing, and for the most part, that's cause everyone is getting on base.
George Springer and Josh Reddick are the only hitters with on-base percentages below the lofty mark of .350. Reddick hits ninth and has 25 home runs. Springer his second, but has 32 home runs. Houston is able to keep the chains moving with remarkably disciplined hitters, and the rare weaker links still get on base over .32% of the time and have terrific power.
Daniel Murphy has really stirred Houston's offense. Not as patient as the rest of his teammates, his bat-to-ball skills are elite, and he never strikes out putting pressure on opposing defenses. Always a prolific doubles hitter, he cranked out a stupendous 58 of them. Also, after topping out at 13 home runs in a season, he bashed 34 this year. He has a higher average on the road and more doubles, but he's taken a shining to Minute Maid Park, where he has 20 of his home runs.
Mike Zunino and Hunter Pence give the team some right handed pop against lefties, with Tony Kemp being a pinch-running option in that event. The ability to transform the lineup with platoons further solidifies Houston's resistance to potential weaknesses.
Unfortunately, with Jose Berrios limited to two starts at most, there are some weaknesses in the Twins rotation, though the Twins never really got blown away in their starts against the Astros. In his one start against Houston this year, Berrios went 7.1 innings allowing one run on one walk with 10 strikeouts. He managed that because he has the explosive arsenal needed to attack a historic lineup.
Julian Merriweather will get the start, a former waiver claim who worked a solid year this year. He produced a 4.28 ERA last year, and a 4.36 mark this year, predicated on a good amount of strikeouts and an average amount of home runs and walks allowed. He really handled lefties this year, though, which is good against an Astros team that can overload its role players. The problem is that its best hitters are mostly right-handed and Merriweather allowed a .786 mark to them. Josh Reddick and Daniel Murphy nonetheless tagged Merriweather for a double and home run each, assaulting him for six runs in 5 innings in an Astros win.
Felix Jorge is stingier with the walks and strikes out fewer batters, as he's definitely a pitch-to-contact ground baller. That may be a better strategy against an Astros team that is the best in the AL in avoiding strikeouts, and he had a reasonably effective start against Houston this year.
Phil Hughes is also stingy with the walks, but gives up a massive amount of home runs, an even 2.0 per nine. Against some teams, being magnificent with control would be enough to inspire confidence, but Hughes' lack of stuff and desire to pound the zone is troublesome against elite batters like Houston's.
The bullpen of the Twins will be rested thanks to Trevor Hildenberger going three innings in the Wild Card Game. Jake Reed may be one of the worst closers in the league, but Trevor May is a strong reliever. striking out about a batter an inning, and avoids home runs despite giving up a lot of fly balls. He works at the top of the zone a lot, which at times surprises hitters, and he drops a curveball that works out of the same pitch tunnel. The Twins may feel more comfortable with a lead in the eighth inning than the ninth.
Season Series
Houston won the season series 4-2, and is 13-5 all time versus Minnesota.
The Twins won the first two of six before Houston won the next four, all in late August and early September. Jose Berrios was dominant in one win, and Max Kepler had a huge game as the Twins battered Brady Rodgers in the other win. From there, Houston's pitching shone through as they won four relatively low-scoring contests.
Deciding Questions:
Can Minnesota punish Houston's lesser starting pitchers? If they can get some home runs off Houston's unspectacular mid-rotation, they can make things very interesting.
The Twins will throw out some pitchers that pound the zone. Will those pitchers keep the Astros sluggers in the park, with Minnesota's defense able to convert balls in play into outs? How Phil Hughes handles Carlos Correa may be a pivotal matchup.
Will Houston be able to take leads into the late innings? Armed with an excellent bullpen, they can shorten games either if their offense is playing up to its level or if its starters stymie the Twins.
Prediction: There may be a game the Twins take off Reid-Foley or Musgrove, or maybe McCullers is all over the place. It's hard to see all three of them struggling, with the Twins also slowing down Houston's offense. Best bet is Minnesota blows out Houton when Berrios starts, and loses every other game. Astros in 5
Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees
The New York Yankees, after two seasons tortured with Wild Card Game losses—plus an agonizing play-in game needed just to make the postseason one year—are finally awarded with some margin for error. Armed with an armada of sluggers that's a little bit more potent than their previous collection of sluggers, and armed with a bullpen that's just as dominant as their previous string of dominant relievers, the Yankees have cruised to an AL East championship. Their reward is a date with the defending champion Chicago White Sox, featuring some of the best top-end talent in baseball. The contest may be a fun contrast of several spectacular stars squaring off against a deep collection of very talented players.
White Sox hitting versus Yankees pitching
The White Sox have some of the best high-end talent in baseball, with several superstar hitters. Yoan Moncada was second in the AL in WAR this year, really blossoming into a special player. He impressed as a rookie and had a good second year and postseason, but was spectacular in 2019. He hit .297, a career high, stealing 58 of 65 bases. His on-base percentage was .400, which thanks to the potency of the White Sox lineup, led to him leading the league in runs with a massive 137. His great patience and lightning quick bat make him a nearly impossible out.
Andrew Beintnedi led the league in hits and RBIs last season and was even better this year. He set career highs in every major offensive stat aside from doubles and stolen bases, as he's bulkier now than he used to be. Benintendi has maybe the quickest bat in the game, and with his strong frame, makes him a nearly perfect hitter. Already a superstar, it will be shocking if he doesn't win an MVP in his lifetime.
Rafael Devers is the third young superstar of the group. He tapped into his power this season, blasting 32 homers and even stealing 16 bases. He too has improved his bat speed, making him a relatively low strikeout slugger. Devers has traded some of that power for bat control and gives the White Sox three incredibly tough outs atop the lineup, all with varying amounts of speed, and all with at least good power. As each of them has such great bat control, they're virtually strategy-proof. In fact, the number of hitters Benintendi has at least 10 at bats against and less than a .300 average is staggering, as of the 37 pitchers he's faced in that sample, only eight have held him to an average under .300. Only Kyle Hendricks has held him to an average under .231, suggesting maybe advanced command and pitchability is the only kryptonite for hitters like Benintendi.
Fortunately for the Yankees, the rest of the White Sox are mortal. Tim Anderson has good surface stats and had a good 2018, but was underwhelming this year with an OBP under .300. Eugenio Suarez struggled since coming over in a trade with Cincinnati, and Brandon Guyer's gains against righties last year fell back this year. Each has talent for sure, but none is a sure thing.
First base has been a persistent bugaboo for the White Sox, especially with Eric Hosmer's dismal 2018 postseason fresh in Mike Ball's mind. Rookie Brendan McKay had 11 home runs in 177 plate appearances with a .280 average. Another young phenom to add to a core that's still preposterously young, McKay may be the next star bat Chicago will use to augment their lineup. He's also a rookie with under 200 major league plate appearances.
Even if the supporting cast can't help, if the White Sox don't suffer a major injury like they did with Benintendi early last postseason, they'll be a threat to produce runs. They're offense carried them last year and even with some question marks, it's a wholly more dynamic version this time around.
Fortunately the Yankees have stuff and pitchability in spades. In Luis Severino they have a legitimate ace. Severino has improved his command and his changeup this season to set career highs in walk rate and strikeout rate, with home runs increases with the run environment.
Importantly, he's had some huge success against this iteration of the White Sox. He spun a complete game shutout versus them last August 19th despite only three strikeouts, showing terrific movement to allow only two extra base hits. This August, he worked 6 strong innings, allowing two runs, walking none, striking out five, and only losing to a one-hit, 8-inning performance by the masterful Carlos Martinez. Finally, in his last start, Severino spun 7 innings of one-run ball, walking one, whiffing seven, and beating Martinez. Severino's brilliance gives the Yankees a great chance.
Nathan Eovaldi, despite seeing his walk rate increase, and his home run rate elevate this year, has had unusual success against the White Sox as well. He worked 7 innings of two-run ball last April, and last August. He only faced Chicago once this season, but despite five walks in 5 innings, plus six hits, he tamed Benintendi and Devers and has been one of the most successful pitchers against Benintendi all time.
Masahiro Tanaka had a rough Wild Card Game in 2017, though he settled down from a rough start to work 7 strong innings last postseason before the Yankees fell to the Indians. Stady as ever, Tanaka misses the middle of bats, doesn't walk hitters, and actually increased his strikeouts per nine this year.
Trevor Bauer did not have a strong year out of the pen, but with another late-season injury to Michael Pineda, will get a start most likely.
The pen for the Yankees shines as it lead the league in ERA. Aroldis Chapman had a third straight dominant year where he lead the league in saves, Dellin Betances came back from a biceps strain to strike out 67 hitters in 38 innings, and Jonathan Holder allowed 16 walks in 73 innings while striking out 97. In the middle innings, Nick Runeblow continued to add to the Yankees collection of pitchers who strikeout over a batter an inning and limit walks. Runeblow added to that with a .224 BABIP, allowing him to post a 3.21 ERA.
The rest of the Yankees middle relievers and long men are mediocre, so the Yankees will be best served getting length from their starters. Fortunately, they have the rare collection of talent to make that strategy work, even against a team like the White Sox. This matchup of Yankees arms versus White Sox bats is a truly fascinating one.
Yankees hitting versus White Sox pitching
The White Sox led the league in starters ERA this year with a wonderful collection of talent.
It all starts with the maestro, Carlos Martinez, who secured himself as a living legend after a season for the ages in 2018. Not as prodigious last year, Martinez still led the league in WHIP, led the league in BABIP, and if not for Jose Berrios reaching MLB puberty, would have led the league in ERA.
Martinez has exceptional command, a moving high-90s fastball, a dazzling curveball, and an excellent changeup. That arsenal simply misses the fat part of bats. As a result, he led the league in fewest home runs allowed per nine innings last year, and his elevation this year is commensurate with the environment for home runs increasing.
He's also pitched some masterpieces against the Yankees in the past. Last April, he twirled 7.1 innings of shutout ball, walking two and whiffing 11. He followed that up with an absolute gem in August, a complete-game one-hit shutout, where was walked one, struck out nine, and thoroughly outclassed the Yankees. It was a sterling performance by a master at the height of his powers.
In August of this year, he threw his third outing against the Yankees where he worked at least 7.1 shutout innings, this time going 8, allowing just one hit, walking one, and fanning nine, to dominate the Yanks.
Finally, on September 27th, the Yankees were able to break through, bashing three solo home runs in 6.1 innings. He nonetheless walked nary a batter, and fanned six.
The totals for the four starts: 30.2 innings, three runs, 35 strikeouts, four walks, no runs scoring outside of home runs. Martinez has absolutely dominated the Yankees and it may take more than a stray solo home run or two to beat him.
A.J. Cole will also get starts, as he's showcased himself to be a young ace in the making. He limits home runs, limits walks, gets strikeouts, limits damage on balls-in-play, and as he showed last postseason, isn't scared of playoff pressure, working to a 1.96 ERA to help the White Sox to a title.
Carlos Rodon is vulnerable to the long ball, the only blemish for a dazzling pitcher. When he keeps the ball in the park, he dominates hitters. His 245 strikeouts led the AL, achieving the feat in merely 195 innings. He limited his walk rate from last year, and lowered his BABIP against. Against a slugging team like the Yankees, his ability to keep the ball in the park will be enormous.
Eduardo Rodriguez is the most unheralded arm, but outside of Martinez, may be the most consistently reliable. He struck out 183 men in 190 innings, but is more known for keeping the ball in the park and posting miniscule walk rates. Despite a 4.02 ERA, he won 17 games and was eighth in FIP at 3.71.
The White Sox bullpen is vulnerable though. Seventh in ERA, only two arms had an ERA below 3.93, Will Smith and Arodys Vizcaino, both of whom had miserably ineffective 2018 postseasons. Tony Zych had a strong year as closer, but struggles with home runs and isn't playoff tested. This may be a weak spot.
In fact, only Martinez and Cole had major success among White Sox pitchers last year as the offense did most of the heavy lifting.
This is dangerous when facing a Yankees team that slugged a whopping 293 home runs. Their lineup features one hitter with under 20 home runs this year, Didi Gregorious, who hit 16. The Yankees have always slugged, but it's a more well rounded offense with hitters who get on base more this year. Esteban Robles came aboard and has a .371 OBP for example, a huge help for a team that needed guys on base. Gleyber Torres has ascended to the leadoff spot thanks to an OBP of .398. Torres is a superstar and Robles gave the team a well-rounded bat. It's allowed the club to take off.
Gary Sanchez, Ji-man Choi, Aaron Judge, and Clint Frazier all bat between a range of .236 to .255. Judge hit .225 last year, and Frazier .231. They're productive players, but their presence led to a slugging-heavy lineup in need of some balance. Credit to Greg Masceri for taking Hal Steinbrener's checkbook and solving the problem.
The danger is that against a team like the White Sox, those high-strikeout power hitters aren't going to be able to produce. The Yankees will need the bat control to handle Martinez, Cole, and Rodriguez. As such, Robles may be the key to the series for the Yankees. Whether or not he can get hits when Torres is on, and get on base for the sluggers behind him will be huge. The questions of how they'll fare against this staff is also a fascination.
Season Series
Chicago leads the season series 4-3 this year and 11-9 all-time, including 8-5 since hitting their stride last year.
A.J. Cole and three relievers combined on a two-hit shutout in August and despite the Sox mustering only one run against four Yankees pitchers, persevered 1-0. The Yankees captured the middle game when Tanaka and three relievers worked a strong game, outpitching Andrew Suarez. The bottom five hitters in the White Sox lineup that day went 0-16. Martinez pitched his 8-inning gem in the finale to take the series for the White Sox.
In late September, the two heavyweights split with the Yankees winning the first two and the Yankees capturing the last two. The White Sox got a couple of runs off the Yankees in bullpen with a Gregorious error assisting their efforts. They couldn't come all the way back though, and a decent outing from Tanaka resulted in his second win over the White Sox. In the second game, Severino pitched a gem, Torres, Sanchez, and Dustin Fowler took Martinez deep, and the Yanks ran up the score against the White Sox bullpen.
In the third game, Benintendi got a hit off Chapman, and Greg Bird misplayed a grounder for an error allowing the first two to reach. Andrew McCutchen doubled in both men to break a 2-2 tie, giving the White Sox a 4-2 win. In the finale, the White Sox bullpen shone, getting 3.1 shutout innings from Tommy Kahnle, Smith, and Zych to secure a 7-5 win.
Deciding Questions
Can the Yankees have success against Cole and Rodriguez? They may be able to get dingers off Rodon, and Martinez may be a lost cause. How will they do against the other two?
The White Sox like to use pitch counts and make sure their arms don't go deep. How will their bullpen do against a terrific offense?
Masahiro Tanaka has been touch and go in a few Wild Card starts. Can he tame the Chicago lineup into the sixth inning?
Prediction: The White Sox pitching has struggled in the postseason, and I worry about Rodon against the Yankees. That being said, the Yankees bats have also struggled in the postseason, and Chicago's arms are extremely talented. In the end, I trust the White Sox offense a bit better than the Yankees offense. New York will win the close games, but Chicago will win the final one: White Sox in 7