Post by Commissioner Erick on Sept 5, 2018 18:28:48 GMT -5
Houston Astros versus New York Yankees
After dispatching the Chicago White Sox in six games behind Masahiro Tanaka's brilliance, the New York Yankees surge into the ALCS with a ton of confidence. Houston, meanwhile, saw its bats desert them as they needed brilliant relief work and a courageous tenth inning from Garrett Stubbs to advance. A juggernaut in the regular season, Houston will need to recapture that magic to earn a trip to the World Series.
Yankees hitting versus Astros pitching
The Yankees offense is a more dynamic one than the offense Houston stymied in the ALDS. There are even more power hitters and some good on-base players, despite having less speed than the Twins. That's why the Yankees were third in runs scored this season, and why they were able to do damage against the best pitching staff in the league.
The Yankees sheer depth of power overwhelmed the American League and overwhelmed the Chicago White Sox, when they clubbed a stupendous 19 home runs in six games, including seven in a Game Four massacre. Gary Sanchez clubbed three home runs in that game, three other players had three home runs for the series, and the Yankees slugged an impressive X. Everyone with over 20 at bats homered, with only Esteban Robles going yard only once. Didi Gregorious went 0-20 in the ALDS and it didn't matter one bit. They slugged .591 and showed off the full extent of their might.
While the White Sox thought themselves well equipped to handle a powerful lineup like the Yankees, Houston may be better able to. However, they're limited to using Dallas Keuchel maybe twice this series after being used in Game Seven of the ALDS. He's a master at limiting ground balls and has had some success against the Yankees in the past. With him getting three starts, Houston held the Twins to just three runs a game during the ALDS.
The story will then be about the tertiary pitchers on Houston and how they prevent home runs. Brady Rodgers pitched well in the ALDS in not allowing a home run, but given the 39 he allowed in the regular season, he may not get a start in the postseason.
Lance McCullers Jr. will likely get a start. He walks a ton, strikes out a ton, and gave up a low amount of home runs. He pitched twice against the Yankees this season, one a short affair, the other a 7-inning start, where the main issue he ran into was walks. The Yankees have the second best walk rate in the AL, so McCullers Jr. will have to find a way to make sure the Yankees swing.
Joe Musgrove hasn't been as spectacular as some of his surface stats would indicate, but he's been solid all year, with a very balanced ledger of what makes him succeed. A good amount of strikeouts, not too many walks, not too many home runs. With good stuff, good control, and an ability to get the ball on the ground, he inspires confidence, especially after a strong performance in Game 4 of the ALDS. Musgrove hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last five starts.
Sean Reid-Foley was hit hard by the Twins in his ALDS start, and hasn't faced the Yankees this year. Reid-Foley has three strong pitches, plus a changeup, and he can get whiffs without sacrificing control. He's a league-average arm in terms of home runs as well. He's been hittable of late, but he may be able to limit the long ball against the Yankees.
Houston is one of the rare teams that an match New York's bullpen, and it was awesome in the ALDS, working to a 0.82 ERA, holding the Twins to a .292 OPS, and striking out 29 in 22 innings. This includes 5.1 shutout innings in Game 7 of the ALDS.
The setup men, Luke Gregerson and Chris Devenski, double as pitchers who are also excellent at limiting home runs, while the middle relievers will allow many more long balls. This means that the series may hinge on starter length so the ball can be bridged to Gregerson and Devenski. Whether or not Houston's back-end starters like Reid-Foley and middle relief arms like Colin McHugh and Jandel Gustave keep the ball in the park, and whether McCullers Jr. keeps the Yankees off the bases will be huge questions that the series hinges on.
Astros hitters versus Yankees pitchers
Before the postseason this matchup seemed like a clear favorite pointing towards Houston, but the results of the postseason have balanced the matchup out. Houston was a juggernaut during the regular year, but didn't muster four runs a game against the Twins in the ALDS. Scoring against Jose Berrios is tough. That's understandable. However, the Twins supporting cast was also able to stymie Houston and they don't have the potential Cy Young pedigree Berrios has.
The power output was generally there, but four regulars batted under .200, and one regular batted over .269. It was such a disappointing offensive campaign that Hunter Pence was named series MVP on the basis of a two-home run game in a loss. The longer trend obviously points towards Houston working these kinks out, but can they maintain their offense against more good pitching?
Meanwhile, the Yankees got a spectacular ALDS from Masahiro Tanaka who absolutely befuddled the White Sox. Tanaka worked two games, going 16.1 innings without allowing a run. He struck out 17, allowed only six hits, and was remarkable. Tanaka now hasn't allowed more than a run in an appearance in five starts, and after a rough Wild Card game in 2015, now has a 2.51 postseason ERA.
Luis Severino lost a pair of mediocre starts to Carlos Martinez, but was tremendous in the regular season. Naturally, his worst start of the year was in Houston; however, he did yield just one walk and a pair of home runs while whiffing 10 in 10 innings. He could be up to the task of shutting Houston down, or he can be yanked around early.
A bigger concern is the back of the Yankees rotation and the middle of their bullpen. Nathan Eovaldi, Dan Straily, and Luis Cessa were fine, but neither was inspiring against Chicago. Houston is a more complete offense that doesn't have the weak spots a pitcher can hide in. Eovaldi pitched an 8 inning gem against Houston this year where he didn't allow a run. He was also blasted for 11 runs in 4 innings. Luis Cessa was likely strong in a start against Houston, but was homer prone this year and sent to the bullpen. Dan Straily allowed 14 runs in 9.1 innings against the Astros this year. There aren't inspiring resumes.
One thing that will help Houston out is their ability to use Hunter Pence off the bench. Pence already has two home runs in four at bats, and could be a weapon to use against lefties, or righties. Pence hit both of his postseason home runs off right-handers, 15 of his 18 regular season homers against righties, and can step in against a lefty to eliminate a potential platoon disadvantage, and a subsequent at bat against a righty may be more advantageous. Such is the luxury of having a guy who hit 122 RBIs last season available off the bench.
Season Series
Houston obliterated the Yankees this year, taking six of seven, including a three game sweep in New York in late August. In late July, the Astros got a seven RBI day from Daniel Murphy to win a high scoring affair 13-9, beating up Luis Severino in the process. Nate Eovaldi beat Dallas Keuchel 1-0 the next day, but the Astros won the series winning the final two games by a combined 12-3, with Jose Altuve hitting two doubles, a triple, and a home run those two games.
In August, Houston swept the Yankees by a score of 30-14 in three games, blasting Eovaldi in the middle game. Garrett Stubbs went 5-9 with two doubles, a triple, and a home run, with four runs and four driven in. He sat out the finale game, replaced by Mike Zunino where he went 2-3 with a home run.
Houston is 12-10 against the Yankees all time, struggling until this season. Last year, in a play-in game for the second wild card, the Yankees got a huge game-tying three run home run in the sixth from Ji-man Choi off McCullers, plus an even bigger home run from Wlademir Balentien off Luke Gregerson in the eighth to erase a 4-0 deficit and earn a trip to the playoffs.
Deciding Questions
Luis Severino struggled against Chicago and wasn't very good against Houston this year. Can he bounce back?
Will New York's hitters pulverize Houston's rotation behind Keuchel?
Derek Fisher, Tony Kemp, and Josh Reddick are slumping right now. Can they get hot?
Prediction: It's hard to imagine Houston's offense will struggle for another round, Tanaka will continue his stretch, and the Yankees wont continue to clobber everything. Astros in 5.
After dispatching the Chicago White Sox in six games behind Masahiro Tanaka's brilliance, the New York Yankees surge into the ALCS with a ton of confidence. Houston, meanwhile, saw its bats desert them as they needed brilliant relief work and a courageous tenth inning from Garrett Stubbs to advance. A juggernaut in the regular season, Houston will need to recapture that magic to earn a trip to the World Series.
Yankees hitting versus Astros pitching
The Yankees offense is a more dynamic one than the offense Houston stymied in the ALDS. There are even more power hitters and some good on-base players, despite having less speed than the Twins. That's why the Yankees were third in runs scored this season, and why they were able to do damage against the best pitching staff in the league.
The Yankees sheer depth of power overwhelmed the American League and overwhelmed the Chicago White Sox, when they clubbed a stupendous 19 home runs in six games, including seven in a Game Four massacre. Gary Sanchez clubbed three home runs in that game, three other players had three home runs for the series, and the Yankees slugged an impressive X. Everyone with over 20 at bats homered, with only Esteban Robles going yard only once. Didi Gregorious went 0-20 in the ALDS and it didn't matter one bit. They slugged .591 and showed off the full extent of their might.
While the White Sox thought themselves well equipped to handle a powerful lineup like the Yankees, Houston may be better able to. However, they're limited to using Dallas Keuchel maybe twice this series after being used in Game Seven of the ALDS. He's a master at limiting ground balls and has had some success against the Yankees in the past. With him getting three starts, Houston held the Twins to just three runs a game during the ALDS.
The story will then be about the tertiary pitchers on Houston and how they prevent home runs. Brady Rodgers pitched well in the ALDS in not allowing a home run, but given the 39 he allowed in the regular season, he may not get a start in the postseason.
Lance McCullers Jr. will likely get a start. He walks a ton, strikes out a ton, and gave up a low amount of home runs. He pitched twice against the Yankees this season, one a short affair, the other a 7-inning start, where the main issue he ran into was walks. The Yankees have the second best walk rate in the AL, so McCullers Jr. will have to find a way to make sure the Yankees swing.
Joe Musgrove hasn't been as spectacular as some of his surface stats would indicate, but he's been solid all year, with a very balanced ledger of what makes him succeed. A good amount of strikeouts, not too many walks, not too many home runs. With good stuff, good control, and an ability to get the ball on the ground, he inspires confidence, especially after a strong performance in Game 4 of the ALDS. Musgrove hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last five starts.
Sean Reid-Foley was hit hard by the Twins in his ALDS start, and hasn't faced the Yankees this year. Reid-Foley has three strong pitches, plus a changeup, and he can get whiffs without sacrificing control. He's a league-average arm in terms of home runs as well. He's been hittable of late, but he may be able to limit the long ball against the Yankees.
Houston is one of the rare teams that an match New York's bullpen, and it was awesome in the ALDS, working to a 0.82 ERA, holding the Twins to a .292 OPS, and striking out 29 in 22 innings. This includes 5.1 shutout innings in Game 7 of the ALDS.
The setup men, Luke Gregerson and Chris Devenski, double as pitchers who are also excellent at limiting home runs, while the middle relievers will allow many more long balls. This means that the series may hinge on starter length so the ball can be bridged to Gregerson and Devenski. Whether or not Houston's back-end starters like Reid-Foley and middle relief arms like Colin McHugh and Jandel Gustave keep the ball in the park, and whether McCullers Jr. keeps the Yankees off the bases will be huge questions that the series hinges on.
Astros hitters versus Yankees pitchers
Before the postseason this matchup seemed like a clear favorite pointing towards Houston, but the results of the postseason have balanced the matchup out. Houston was a juggernaut during the regular year, but didn't muster four runs a game against the Twins in the ALDS. Scoring against Jose Berrios is tough. That's understandable. However, the Twins supporting cast was also able to stymie Houston and they don't have the potential Cy Young pedigree Berrios has.
The power output was generally there, but four regulars batted under .200, and one regular batted over .269. It was such a disappointing offensive campaign that Hunter Pence was named series MVP on the basis of a two-home run game in a loss. The longer trend obviously points towards Houston working these kinks out, but can they maintain their offense against more good pitching?
Meanwhile, the Yankees got a spectacular ALDS from Masahiro Tanaka who absolutely befuddled the White Sox. Tanaka worked two games, going 16.1 innings without allowing a run. He struck out 17, allowed only six hits, and was remarkable. Tanaka now hasn't allowed more than a run in an appearance in five starts, and after a rough Wild Card game in 2015, now has a 2.51 postseason ERA.
Luis Severino lost a pair of mediocre starts to Carlos Martinez, but was tremendous in the regular season. Naturally, his worst start of the year was in Houston; however, he did yield just one walk and a pair of home runs while whiffing 10 in 10 innings. He could be up to the task of shutting Houston down, or he can be yanked around early.
A bigger concern is the back of the Yankees rotation and the middle of their bullpen. Nathan Eovaldi, Dan Straily, and Luis Cessa were fine, but neither was inspiring against Chicago. Houston is a more complete offense that doesn't have the weak spots a pitcher can hide in. Eovaldi pitched an 8 inning gem against Houston this year where he didn't allow a run. He was also blasted for 11 runs in 4 innings. Luis Cessa was likely strong in a start against Houston, but was homer prone this year and sent to the bullpen. Dan Straily allowed 14 runs in 9.1 innings against the Astros this year. There aren't inspiring resumes.
One thing that will help Houston out is their ability to use Hunter Pence off the bench. Pence already has two home runs in four at bats, and could be a weapon to use against lefties, or righties. Pence hit both of his postseason home runs off right-handers, 15 of his 18 regular season homers against righties, and can step in against a lefty to eliminate a potential platoon disadvantage, and a subsequent at bat against a righty may be more advantageous. Such is the luxury of having a guy who hit 122 RBIs last season available off the bench.
Season Series
Houston obliterated the Yankees this year, taking six of seven, including a three game sweep in New York in late August. In late July, the Astros got a seven RBI day from Daniel Murphy to win a high scoring affair 13-9, beating up Luis Severino in the process. Nate Eovaldi beat Dallas Keuchel 1-0 the next day, but the Astros won the series winning the final two games by a combined 12-3, with Jose Altuve hitting two doubles, a triple, and a home run those two games.
In August, Houston swept the Yankees by a score of 30-14 in three games, blasting Eovaldi in the middle game. Garrett Stubbs went 5-9 with two doubles, a triple, and a home run, with four runs and four driven in. He sat out the finale game, replaced by Mike Zunino where he went 2-3 with a home run.
Houston is 12-10 against the Yankees all time, struggling until this season. Last year, in a play-in game for the second wild card, the Yankees got a huge game-tying three run home run in the sixth from Ji-man Choi off McCullers, plus an even bigger home run from Wlademir Balentien off Luke Gregerson in the eighth to erase a 4-0 deficit and earn a trip to the playoffs.
Deciding Questions
Luis Severino struggled against Chicago and wasn't very good against Houston this year. Can he bounce back?
Will New York's hitters pulverize Houston's rotation behind Keuchel?
Derek Fisher, Tony Kemp, and Josh Reddick are slumping right now. Can they get hot?
Prediction: It's hard to imagine Houston's offense will struggle for another round, Tanaka will continue his stretch, and the Yankees wont continue to clobber everything. Astros in 5.