2020 NL West Division Preview

[marinersjeff]

1 LA Dodgers



2019 in Review: 2019 was a pretty good year for the Dodgers. They won 102 games, and were the one team to finish the season with a win. On the season they combined to hit for a .268 average, with 241 HR and 879 runs on their way to becoming the PBA World Series Champions. The offense was led by Nomar Mazara, Jurikson Profar, and Alex Verdugo. The pitching held up its end of things as well led by Cy Young award winner Clayton Kershaw. Gio Gonzalez and Juio Urias also had very strong years to help lead one of the leagues best pitching staffs. Kenley Jansen anchored the bullpen with 34 saves. The entire roster looked like an All Star team, and they didn’t disappoint.



Down on the Farm:

The Dodgers are clearly in win now mode and the Farm reflects that. They have just 2 guys in the top 100 prospects list, and they are closer to the bottom than the top of that list. The good news is that both SP Yadier Alvarez and SP James Kaprielian are getting a look in spring training and could be ready to help the club as early as this year.



Best Case for 2020:

Any team that has a rotation led by Clayton Kershaw is in good shape! The only key contributor from last year not returning is Gio Gonzalez. Assuming everyone stays healthy this team should be looking at a deep playoff run yet again. Back to back champs isn’t out of the question.



Worst Case for 2020:

If the injuries pile up or we see major regression with a few of the guys could result in an early playoff exit or even missing the playoffs. Lets not forget the Rockies will be looking to take control of the West.



Key Departures:

SP Gio Gonzalez – Free Agency

RP Alex Wood – Free Agency



Key Arrivals:

RP Will Harris – Free Agency

CL Ryan Burr – Rule V

SP Logan Allen – Rule V



Burning Questions:

Are you concerned about the lack of top tier prospects?



Does the lack of depth concern you going forward with Justin Turner and Joc Pederson becoming free agents next year, how do you plan on replacing them.



If you need to make a move at the deadline do you think you have the pieces to trade to get you what you need?





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2 Colorado Rockies



2019 in Review: The Rockies were so close to capturing the NL Pennant, but came up just short against their NL West rival Dodgers. The mile high bombers were led offensively by Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez. Those three combined for 121 HR and 230 RBI. The offense had to carry the load with the pitching staff finishing the year with a 4.72 ERA, but factor in the Coors Field Effect and that’s not so bad. Jon Gray and Tyler Anderson led the starting staff with a combined 28 wins and 312 strike outs. Michael Fulmer battled through an injury filled season to post solid numbers as well. Lets hope he can put this year behind him and move forward.



Down on the Farm:

The Rockies boast a couple of highly regarded pitching prospects in Eric Pardinho and Riley Pint. Pardinho is an international signing from Brazil, who looks to have the potential for big K’s with his 98-100 mph fastball. Pint is looking to make the jump to AA this year after a very strong A+ season where he had 151 K’s in 141 innings. They also added speedy OF Brayan Hernandez from Kansas City this offseason who has world class speed and really solid Defense.



Best Case for 2020:

They made the NLCS in 2019 and with a small improvement from the pitching staff they could take the next step and win the NL Pennant. They’ll be battling LA all year for the NL West Title.



Worst Case for 2020:

They need help at first and second base, and if the pitching struggles at all this team will be looking up at the Dodgers and hoping to make the wild card game.



Key Departures:

SP J.A. Happ – Free Agency

1B Justin Smoak – Free Agency

RP Dan Jennings – Free Agency

1B Eric Thames – Free Agency

1B Ian Desmond – Trade (SF)

2B Dee Gordon – Trade (SF)



Key Arrivals:

RP Xavier Cedeno – Free Agency

RP Kevin Chapman – Waivers

CF Brayan Hernandez – Trade (KC)



Burning Questions:

What is the plan for 1B and 2B?



Are you willing to trade one of your big Pitching Prospects to make a trade to make a playoff push?



You have several guys looking at arbitration this offseason, any plan to get some of those guys extended?





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3 San Francisco Giants



2019 in Review: If you look up the definition of mediocrity in the dictionary, you’d find the 2019 Giants season. They finished in third behind the Dodgers and Rockies with a record of 80 and 82. The offense was led by all world catcher Buster Posey, but saw a drop in production from guys like Christian Arroyo and Joe Panik. The aging staff had several mediocre performances from some big names like Johnny Cueto and Dre Pomeranz. Japan signee Masahiko Morifuku had a solid rookie campaign as the team closer throwing 63.1 innings with 55 K and 29 saves.



Down on the Farm:

The Giants have three pitchers in the top 20, with a system ranked #3 currently. Mathew Latta and Thijs Steenwijk both project as contact first relief pitchers while Braxton Garrett gives the organization a top of the rotation starter. Former first round pick Shane Benes is a SS that should provide solid contact and excellent defense. Several guys are getting looks this spring, but most look to be about a year or so away yet.



Best Case for 2020:

They get over the .500 mark and a lot of the young prospects in the system get some much needed experience and perform well.



Worst Case for 2020:

The young kids go through a lot of growing pains and the older vets take a huge step back and this team brings up the rear in the NL West.



Key Departures:

OF Tyler Naquin – Trade (CLE)

RP Derek Law – Trade (CWS)

RP Dan Altavilla – Trade (TB)

1B Brandon Belt – Trade (SD)

RP Evan Scribner – Free agency

RP Hunter Strickland – Free Agency

CF Che-Hsuan Lin – Free Agency



Key Arrivals:

OF Will Benson – Trade (CLE)

OF Seuly Matias – Rule V

C Rafael Marchan – Rule V

1B Ian Desmond – Trade (COL)

2B Dee Gordon – Trade (COL)



Burning Questions:

Are the older guys, Posey, Cueto, Crawford hurting the future of this team by eating up so much of the payroll?



What is more in focus for the Giants, building depth in the farm and building a winner from within, or taking the prospects and trading them for big league ready guys?



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4 Arizona Diamondbacks

2019 in Review: Arizona had a very disappointing year finishing 4th in the West with a 76 and 86 record. The biggest area of weakness was the pitching staff. Robbie Ray was only able to pitch 81.2 innings with a 5.29 ERA while Trevor Oaks led the team with 36 games started with 166 innings pitched, but only 101 K’s. The offense didn’t do much better hitting .249 as a team on the year. Joey Gallo was his usual all or nothing self with 46 HR and 237 K’s. Facing the top of the NL West all year didn’t help this team any.



Down on the Farm:

Arizona has a top 10 farm headlined by 3B Juan Gestoso. Gestoso was discovered in Venezuela and has game changing speed and instincts on the bases. He projects to be a top of the order hitter with ++ contact and above average defense at 3B. Still only 18 he’ll be given plenty of time to develop and anchor the D’backs infield in the future. Centerfielder Quentin Holmes is another base stealing leadoff guy. The combination of Holmes and Gestoso at the top of the order is going to give catchers nightmares for years. Holmes has outstanding range in centerfield as well.



Best Case for 2020:

The addition of Marcos Gonzales and Aaron Blair help the pitching staff get back on track. Joey Gallo cuts down on the K’s and the other young guys take a step forward. If that happens this team should be right around .500 and finish in 3rd in the West.


Worst Case for 2020:

The pitching is still bad, and the offense leads the world in K’s and they fall to the bottom of the division.



Key Departures:

SP Braden Shipley – Waivers

RP Eric O’Flaherty – Trade (STL)

1B Ildemaro Vargas – Trade (STL)

1B Yasmany Tomas – Trade (CWS)

CL Jimmie Sherfy – Trade (CWS)

RP Jonahtan Broxton – Free Agency

RP John Axford – Free Agency

OF Jarrett Parker – Free Agency

OF Chris Owings – Free Agency

1B CJ Cron – Free Agency



Key Arrivals:

RP Glen Perkins – Free Agency

RP Chris Hatcher – Free Agency

SP Aaron Blair – Trade (ATL)

RP Jason Garcia – Rule V

RP Paul Voelker – Rule V

RP Charlie Furbush – Rule V

SP Marco Gonzalez – Trade (STL)



Burning Questions:

Is the plan to sign the pending free agents, or trade them for future pieces?



Is Joey Gallo’s high K, low BA a concern? Does he stay a long term piece for the future of this team?



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5 San Diego Padres



2019 in Review: The Padres are a very young team trying to get the future pieces in order. They had a very solid year from young 21 year old stand out Luis Urias who hits .335 with 208 hits and 32 SB on the year. Dan Voglebach also had a solid year in his second big league season as he hit .273 with 21 HR and 96 BB. Those two solidified themselves as a mainstays on the Padre infield for years to come. The others gave the front office a look at what they may be able to salvage and areas they need to address. Adalberto Mejia took some big steps forward in his young career starting a team leading 32 games and logging 215 IP with 154 Ks and only 52 BB and 17 wins on the year. Jose Torres was a bright spot in the bullpen throwing 80.1 innings and 99 K’s in 61 games. Not a great year for San Diego, but some young players took some steps forward to give the fans in Southern California some hope.



Down on the Farm:

The Padres have a very strong farm, currently ranked #2 in the PBA. They have a plethora of talented middle infielders. Royce Lewis is an outstanding defensive shortstop with top of the chats speed. He’s got a solid eye and makes good contact. Fernando Tatis Jr. can play both second base and short stop with above average speed. He’s got good power and makes good contact. He should be a solid middle of the order guy. Luis Almanzar is yet another shortstop with a high ability to put the ball in play. He’s got good range and a strong arm that allows him to play both third and short. Leodys Taveras is a CF who should make his big league debut this year. He’s a true centerfielder that makes good contact and can get on base. Doesn’t have much power, but should provide a top of the lineup bat. Adrian Morejon is a promising looking starter, but he’s dealing with an elbow injury, so fingers crossed he can bounce back.



Best Case for 2020:

They continue to develop the young talent and build for the future. They improve over last year, and get out of the cellar.



Worst Case for 2020:

Things go really bad and the young guys don’t perform and the bullpen can’t find its identity and stuggle to a .400 winning percent.



Key Departures:

SP Logan Allen – Rule V

RP Brad Hand – Free Agency

SS Tim Beckham – Free Agency



Key Arrivals:

SP Jake Odorizzi – Free Agent

RP Tyler Thornburg

2B Jonathan Schoop – Free Agent

SP Yu Darvish – Free Agent

RP Gerson Bautista – Rule V

1B Brandon Belt – Trade (SF)



Burning Questions:

Why bring in Brandon Belt and Yu Darvish?



Will you trade from your depth of middle infield to help solidify the pitching?



What is the plan for the bullpen, there isn’t a true closer on the roster, is that intentional?

[rutledge]

Are the older guys, Posey, Cueto, Crawford hurting the future of this team by eating up so much of the payroll?

I don't think my current payroll has any effect on that, although I have been very open to trading any big league guys getting paid. Several of them still have substantial talent.

What is more in focus for the Giants, building depth in the farm and building a winner from within, or taking the prospects and trading them for big league ready guys?

Developing guys we already have is always the #1 focus. If we find some spots can't be filled from within, we will turn to the trade market.

[rdavispadres]

1. Going into the offseason we made supplementing the current roster with viable Major Leaguers a top priority. We believe strongly in improving from within but we thought it was time to take that next step and begin to expand on our core of Urias, Lamb, Vogelbach, etc. On the offensive side of things, our acquisitions of Brandon Belt and Jonathan Schoop extend our lineup without blocking our top prospects. Belt is a professional hitter who will hopefully help fix our OBP problem. We also identify Schoop as a guy who had a bit of a down year but whose offensive profile and perceived defensive versatility make him a good fit with our current guys. Darvish was an easy target for us as we've struggled a bit on the pitching side of things and adding a starter of his caliber was a no-brainer for us.

2. We will definitely consider trading from our positions of depth to supplement the weaker parts of our roster but we don't really have any plans to deal middle infielders for pitching just yet. We have some guys we want to evaluate over the spring and into the season before we decide on making any huge additions via trade.

3. So we brought in Tyler Thornburg this offseason to add even more depth to a bullpen the we believe can be top 10 in all of baseball. Thornburg, Jose Ruiz, Jose Torres, Phil Maton, and Ryan Buchter are all guys we believer can take the ball in the 9th and close out a game. Instead of appointing one as the closer we'd rather play matchup-ball so we aren't forcibly sending one reliever into the game because it's "his situation" or whatever. We have utilized this no roles approach before but haven't had the kind of depth necessary for the method's success so we'll see how it goes this year.

[Commissioner Erick]

Great questions and write up Jeff!


What is the plan for 1B and 2B?

We traded away some of our depth to shed salary this season, so we don't have many options for those positions. Also, shortstop plays in as a question as we're likely to play Trevor Story at second and first this year. Most of the time, at first base, Josh Ockimey will play against righties. He's a big power bat who had a decent rookie year. With the production we get elsewhere, we merely need him to be a solid starter. A .265 average with similar ISO numbers to last year will be fine, even with his high strikeout numbers and relatively low on-base ability. We'll look to hide him against lefties for Trevor Story, whose bat will play at first, especially against lefties.

The middle infield will be tricky. We'll likely play Story at shortstop against righties and Trvis Demeritte at second base. Our concern is that it gives us a relatively poor defensive middle infield and gives us three infielders that strikeout a ton and have power but limited on-base ability, especially with Story and Demeritte being righthanded. We'll monitor that and may pivot to Sergio Alcantara for the glove he provides a little more contact. Our team has a lot of swing-and-miss so just the ability to get a bat on the ball with a man on third would be huge.

Against lefties, Alcantara will play short and Demeritte will play second. Our coaches think Alcantara's swing is actually better from the right side, and Demeritte should be really good against southpaws. With a heavily left-handed roster, I'm excited for this configuration as one that can really pressure left-handed pitching.


Are you willing to trade one of your big Pitching Prospects to make a trade to make a playoff push?

Maybe? I really want to hold on to Pardinho, and while I conceptually wouldn't be totally against trading Pint, there's an obstacle hindering our roster construction: budget space. With our team right at our budget threshold, this may be what we have to work with except on the margins.


You have several guys looking at arbitration this offseason, any plan to get some of those guys extended?

Right now, most of the guys don't want to sign extensions so it looks like one more year of arbitration for them, and then a lot of questions for me after the 2021 season.

[dbackhon]

Is Joey Gallo’s high K, low BA a concern? Does he stay a long term piece for the future of this team?


The K's aren't ideal but they are not inherently a concern. Joey won the MVP in 2018 despite striking out 212 times... The batting average, and especially the OBP is a serious concern since you can't rely on a player who is well below the Mendoza line. The coming year (and the advanced metrics) will help to determine whether Gallo is the .240 hitting slugger who won MVP in 2018 or a the guy who plays limbo with the mendoza line every year. The advanced statistics point towards last year being particular unlucky (Joey's BABIP was .178, compared to .257 in 2018) but we will be watching him closely this season. All things considered, I certainly consider him to be a part of this teams future but whether he is a centerpiece or a role player remains to be seen.


Is the plan to sign the pending free agents, or trade them for future pieces?

I don't think that Arizona is in a place where we would sacrifice the long-term future of the ball club for ephemeral improvements. We certainly have made some trades in the offseason that traded prospects for PBA-talent but we were willing to do so because we Aaron [Blair], and Marco [Gonzales] are players that we see as being a part of this franchise for at least the next four years if not longer. We want to improve our club on the field today but also have an eye towards the future and evaluate impending free agents for whether we see them as members of the team one, two, three, or more years down the road and that is something that is always evaluated on a case by case basis.