Game of the Week: April 27: CHC @ PIT

[Commissioner Erick]

Chicago Cubs (16-2) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (12-6)


CHC: Jon Lester (1-1, 4.80 ERA)
PIT: Gerrit Cole (1-1, 3.12)


The Chicago Cubs didn't add much to a team that won 110 games last season, the rationale being that a team that wins 110 games doesn't need to really add too much to it. After a 16-2 start to 2020, that thinking looks very wise.

The Chicago Cubs bring the best record in the National League into Pittsburgh to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Cubs have lost just twice all year as they've been led by an absolutely dominant staff. They've allowed over three runs just four times in 18 games, and have a 2.17 ERA. The pitching has been terrific as the Cubs lead baseball in FIP. They've also been helped by a terrific staff as the team has the best zone rating in the NL thus far.

If the Pirates have a chance to score some runs, it's because they're facing 36-year-old Jon Lester, who has been the worst starter for the Cubs this year. Some of Lester's 4.80 ERA is a result of age-related decline, while some is the result of an unlucky .346 BABIP. Lester's only allowed one home run thus far though, and he's surrendered only four walks in 15 innings. He's fanned just 11 batters however, a year after striking out only 93 in 135 innings. This appears to be a case where the mind is still sharp, though the sheer stuff is beginning to erode. Nonetheless, Lester worked to an even 4.00 ERA in 2019 and FIP believes he should be at 3.49 thus far.

Lester will square off against a Pirates team that continues to abide by a high-contact, low-power strategy.

In 2017, the Pirates had the second best strikeout rate, the fourth best average, and fewest home runs in the NL. In 2018, the Pirates had the second best strikeout rate, second best average, and second fewest home runs in the NL. Last year, the Pirates had the best strikeout rate, the best average, and the second fewest home runs in the NL. Thus far this season? The best strikeout rate by far, though their home runs and batting average is more towards the middle of the pack.

Lester, surprisingly, hasn't faced the Pirates too often in his career, just six times in a little over three years. He's generally worked between 5 and 6 innings and allowed between three and five runs. He's just 2-4 with a 5.37 ERA in 35.2 innings. Though he's allowed just 10 walks, he's struck out just 26. He's allowed 37 hits which isn't too bad, and he's issued just five home runs. He clearly isn't getting rocked by the Pirates, but he's only pitched one real strong outing, where he allowed just two runs over 8 innings. Pittsburgh's command of the strike zone has allowed the team a baseline to put up runs, while they've been fortunate their own pitching has been strong.

Lester will be helped by the fact that the Pirates lineup is very left handed with six left-handed hitters. Lefties have a career .228 average against Lester and a .647 OPS against.

Pittsburgh hasn't been bad against lefties this season though, led by young Ke'Bryan Hayes. The 23-year-old is in his second season and has a .389 average with two home runs against lefties already this season. Hayes hit .273 last year with 11 home runs, not very strong numbers for a starting third baseman. However, with a year of seasoning, Hayes already has five home runs and a robust .368 average.

The Pirates will need Hayes to produce if they want to score against the Pirates. Pittsburgh is 12-3 against teams not from Chicago, but was swept by the Cubs last week. They squandered a two on-no out situation in the tenth inning of a one-run loss in the opener, were shut out in the middle game, and saw Gregory Polanco go 0-4 with runners on base in a 6-3 loss in the finale. Pittsburgh's main flaw this year is a .628 in close and late situations, a situation that has cost them against the Cubs. If they can solve that issue, the Pirates may find themselves surprise early contenders for the NL Central crown.



Questions for the GMs:



For Brandon Hillebrand, you didn't resign Josh Donaldson, but your team has gone 16-2. What went into that decision?

Are you concerned with Lester's performance to start the year and at his age?

Andrew McCutchen has really struggled to begin the season, while Justin Upton has just a handful of at bats. Is Upton happy playing such limited playing time with his replacement struggling so much?

For Mike McAvoy, Lester is a contact-oriented pitcher who is tough against lefties. Will you adjust your lineup in any way?

Your team has had only three at bats from bench players this season. What is the reason for such a hands-off approach?

With Dan Runzler out, how will you adjust your bullpen?

[Commissioner Erick]

Cubs 7 - Pirates 2


WP: J. Lester (2-1)
LP: J. Taillon (0-1)


The Pittsburgh Pirates turned to Jameson Taillon to try to slow down the Chicago Cubs offense. With the way Jon Lester was rolling, they could have turned to Clayton Kershaw and it may not have mattered.

Jon Lester carried a shutout into the ninth inning, Freddie Freeman hit his seventh home run, and the Chicago Cubs continued to bludgeon everything in their path, improving to 17-2 after a 7-2 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Despite not facing a lot of success against the Pirates previously, Lester was awesome. He allowed just two runs and seven hits over 8.2 innings, but didn't allow a run and yielded just five hits until the ninth inning. His trademark control was on display, as he walked nobody and struck out five.

The Pirates were surprisingly passive early in counts in the game. Over the first 16 batters of the game, the Pirates took six strikes, seven balls, fouled a pitch off, grounded a single up the middle, and flew out to center field on the first pitch. It was a strange display of hitting for a team that tends to be aggressive on the first pitch. As a result, Lester got to two-strike counts on nine of the first 16 hitters, with eight of those nine counts ending 0-2 or 1-2.

The Pirates changed their approach midway through the sixth. Jin-de Jhang and Keith Holcombe each fouled off a first pitch, with Jhang eventually grounding a single and Holcombe working the count full before grounding out for his troubles.

In the sixth, the Pirates took the new approach to the extreme. They put all four first pitches in play. Even though the Pirates got a hit, Lester threw only four pitches to four batters in the inning. In the seventh, Lester faced four more hitters. This time he needed only five pitches to retire the four batters, with three of the four attacking the first pitch.

It was a wild approach, but Lester wasn't perturbed. He kept hitting the outside corner with his fastball, kept throwing quality strikes, and kept the Pirates from making good contact. It was a wily game from the wily veteran.

The Cubs offense had no issues with Jameson Taillon making his first start since needing Tommy John surgery last year. Taillon had a rough first inning, giving up a home run to Freeman the second batter of the game to put the Pirates behind. Kris Bryant had a hard base knock and Jeimer Candelario walked before Andrew McCutchen snapped a slump with a big double to left-center field to put the Cubs up 3-0.

An error by Holcombe to lead off the second put a runner on base immediately for the Cubs. Taillon, after long at bats, retired Almora and Lindor, but Mike McAvoy's manager bot pulled Taillon at that point. Not stretched out in any capacity, the Pirates surely didn't want Taillon to reach 50 pitches without stretching out his arm. Casey Sadler came on, uncorked a wild pitch, and allowed Freeman to crack a base hit to give the Cubs a 4-0 lead.

The Cubs put the game away in the third. Anthony Rizzo swinging 3-0, popped up on the infield to gift Sadler a first out, before Candelario grounded out for the second out. Ahead 0-2 on McCutchen, he allowed a base hit to keep the inning going. Ahead 0-2 on Wilson Contreras, he plunked him to put two on base. Sadler walked Xander Bogaerts before Albert Almora doubled in two, effectively ending the game.


Questions for the GMs:


For Brandon Hillebrand, Lester was incredibly sharp today. What did he have going for him that allowed him to control the game so well?

Albert Almora provided your team its only easy out last year. Today he had three hits and drove in two. How much more dangerous is your team when he's going well?

How important was it for you to see McCutchen get a few hits, including a big double?

For Mike McAvoy, why go with Taillon here without a rehab assignment for him?

Your team had a weird approach against Lester, very passive early, and then incredibly aggressive late. What was the gameplan supposed to be?

The right-handers you put up against Lester went 0-12. Is this why you sent out a lineup of six lefties?