Post by Commissioner Erick on Feb 6, 2019 7:35:11 GMT -5
Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays
The Texas Rangers started the season off terribly as they seemingly always do, going 0-8 before rebounding and winning the AL West. The Tampa Bay Rays started the season off terribly, going 3-11 and 13-23 before righting the ship and winning the AL East. These two squads are no strangers to the playoffs, and no strangers to making their fans sweat in April. If their series is anything like their 2018 seven game classic, baseball fans will be in for a treat.
Rays Hitting versus Rangers Pitching:
Tampa Bay's offense on the whole was very middle of the pack. They were seventh in runs, seventh in homers, seventh in steals. Some would say that's misleading as the Rays play in a run-suppressing home park, but Tampa Bay actually hit almost .50 points higher in OPS at home than on the road.
The Rays offense is a bit unusual. In the past it was a two-pronged attack of Kevin Kiermaier and Casey Gillaspie. Kiermaier had a terrific season, but after fracturing his ankle last year, no longer appears to be the MVP candidate he used to be. He nonethless led the league in triples with 10, the second time he's led the league in that stat. He popped 22 home runs and had an OPS of .835. It's just that 3.7 WAR is far lower than 6.0.
Gillaspie, meanwhile was benched for much of this year. After a brutal start, Graham Stratford benched Gillaspie, only exhuming him very late in the year. Fortunately, Gillaspie was able to fix himself and he had a nice stretch run, carrying an OPS of .947 in September and hitting a pair of home runs in four October games.
While Gillaspie was finding his swing, Tampa Bay got key contributions from a pair of other players to stay afloat. Brad Miller's average fell apart, but he had 33 home runs. After a season devoid of power, Joe McCarthy had 26 long balls. Eric Hosmer pitched in with 23.
Judging from the names mentioned, Tampa Bay has a decent amount of left-handed power. However, their lineup is incredibly lopsided to the left, and as a result they hit .50 points of OPS better against righties than lefties. Thomas Nido and Matt Chapman are righties who have good power against left-handed pitching, but each gets on base at a sub-.300 clip.
Tampa Bay's saving grace is that Texas rotation is essentially two-deep with quality pitchers, and none are righties. Their one lefty starter, Wei-Yin Chen, had bounced between the majors, minors, and bullpen before this season, with stops in Miami, and Los Angeles before making one appearance for Texas last season. Chen made 23 starts for Texas this year, but with an ERA of 5.37. Chen may be needed to start against Tampa Bay, but how he fares is anybody's guess.
In the bullpen, Texas also has only one lefty and it's their closer, Alex Claudio. Claudio is excellent, he limits homers and walks and offset an increase in BABIP with a marked increase in his strikeout numbers this year. His 37 saves were third in the league, and against a lineup like Tampa Bay's, this makes baseball an eight-inning affair.
The rest of the matchups are where the fun lies. Marcus Stroman had a miserable time in Seattle's hopeless rotation to start the year, and went 1-9 with a 5.32 ERA. Once Texas rescued him, Stroman was rejuvenated. He went 11-3 with Texas with a 2.29 ERA and may have been the best pitcher in the American League. Stroman has the fifth best career FIP among AL pitchers as he's the total package. He limits home runs with one of the best HR/9 marks in baseball. He's very stingy with walks, with the 12th best career walk rate in the AL. Finally, he has a strong 22% strikeout rate, which is good amongst starters. While the strikeout rate isn't an ace's number, combined with the rest of what he offers makes him terrific. Before this year, Stroman had yielded OPS' between .714-.735 to lefties, but cut that number to .588 with Texas this year. How Stroman fares against Tampa Bay's lineup could determine the series.
2017 Cy Young Winner Rick Porcello will also take his turns in the rotation. A pitch-to-contact ground-pounder, Porcello's career 4.48 walk percentage is fifth all time among AL pitchers. He allows just one home run per nine innings, and his strikeout mark of 18.8% is just percentage points behind his 2017 career high. Tampa Bay wants to win by slugging the ball, but Porcello forces teams to win with balls-in-play. How that matchup plays out will be a lot of fun to observe.
The Rangers other rotation options are Shelby Miller or Mitch Keller. Miller has had one year in his career with an ERA under 4.35. He's 9-12 this season with an ERA of 6.08. He has just a 15% strikeout rate this year, and is an uninspiring option in the playoffs.
Keller is a Rule V pick who has had a successful rookie year in the majors. He's allowed just 15 home runs in 166 innings, perhaps his greatest attribute, and one that will play against Tampa Bay. With a good curveball and great changeup, he has the repertoire to work against a heavy lefty lineup, but he doesn't strike too many hitters out. In fact, he has the 11th-lowest strikeout rate in the AL, right behind Rick Porcello and ahead of Shelby Miller. In that case, Keller is Porcello-light and one's opinion on him might hinge on one's opinion of Porcello.
Texas has long had a good bullpen, and this year's is no exception. Everybody in the Rangers bullpen strikes out at least 10 batters per nine innings as hitters have to be prepared to deal with a variety of flamethrowers.
Matt Bush may be Texas' worst relief arm, and he often pitches the eighth inning. Bush still struck out 78 in 65 innings, but he allowed an .829 OPS to lefties as opposed to a .472 OPS to righties. This may not be his best matchup.
Sam Dyson is Texas' other setup reliever, and he turned in his fourth straight excellent season, with a 2.92 ERA in 64.2 innings. Bush struck out 71 batters and yielded only five home runs. His BABIP was high, but he didn't yield a lot of extra base hits. Dyson's sinker-slider-changeup repertoire works better against righties so he could be a big key to the series.
Justin Grimm and his curveball produced just six home runs and 87 strikeouts in 61.2 innings, continuing his terrific relief career, while Bruce Rondon rediscovered the control that abandoned him last year to post a fantastic 2.36 ERA with a 38% strikeout rate. Even their long man, Josh Staumont, and their righty short man, Keona Kela, struck out over 26% of hitters. Tampa Bay's ability to make contact will be tested late.
Texas' defense has been mostly fine, but has picked up with Luis Guillorme's replacing Corey Seager in the lineup. Guillorme's a standout fielder up the middle, which can only help pitchers like Procello and Keller who rely on contact so much.
Jake Bauers may or may not play with a sore elbow and strained abdominal muscle holding him back. If he can't go, rookie Jesus B. Sanchez had a .773 OPS and will go in his place.
Rangers Hitting versus Rays Pitching:
Texas had a good offense, but still scored their fewest runs in history. With Carlos Santana gone and Corey Seager not hitting as well as in years past, Texas lacked a little of the punch they had in seasons past.
Like seemingly every team, Texas was better against right-handed pitchers than left-handed pitchers, though not as drastically as other teams. Texas has a lot of left-handed hitters and with switch-hitters included, will only send two right-handed bats to the plate against left-handed arms. Their saving grace is that their best hitter is right-handed.
Paul Goldschmidt doesn't steal bases like he did when he was younger. He also doesn't quite have the same average. What he does have is a great eye and tremendous power. He had 41 home runs this season, a career high. to go with 106 walks. Goldschmidt destroys left-handed pitching, which is huge with so many lefties surrounding him in the lineup.
Behind Goldschmidt, Texas next five best hitters all do better against right-handers. La Cabra, Francisco Mejia, had another spectacular season and is honestly on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory. He led the league in average for the second season of his career, and topped 30 home runs for the second time. Against righties is where the switch-hitting Mejia shines. He's had at least a .929 OPS and 21 home runs against righties the last three seasons. To get that kind of production from a Catcher is such a boon to an offense.
Texas also is helped by Rougned Odor's return to health. After an injury-plagued 2019, Odor hit for an .821 OPS with 28 home runs. Like Mejia from the Catchers spot, Odor's production from the Second Base position gives Texas the luxury to focus on defense at other spots. Odor led AL Second Basemen in slugging, and is the all-time leader in home runs and RBIs for Second Basemen.
Texas carries Kyle Seager, a third baseman with 27 home runs and a .367 OBP, plus Corey Seager, who clubbed 37 doubles and 18 home runs. They were also helped by Kyle O'Hearn, who finally put everything together. After three middling seasons, O'Hearn smacked 28 home runs and 31 doubles to put together a power-forward .791 OPS. O'Hearn won't provide much defensive value, but he's yet another bat that will punish right-handed pitchers who leave fastballs over the plate.
Where Tampa Bay has an advantage is that the Rays have the second best staff in the league behind Chicago, and they have three outstanding lefties.
The Tampa Bay ace is Madison Bumgarner, a powerhouse ace who just captured the AL Triple Crown. Bumgarner led the league in innings for the third time. He led the league in wins for the second time, as well as strikeouts and WHIP. His 2.66 ERA allowed him to lead the league in ERA for the first time, and he also enjoyed his first WAR title with 7.7. Bumgarner's allowed more than three runs just four times this year, and allowed two runs or less in 8 innings or more in his last four starts.
Bumgarner had a track record of playoff excellence until he got destroyed by the Twins in the Wild Card Game last year. He's going to be out for revenge against the team that didn't resign him.
Steven Matz will also feature prominently, and the lefty allows opposing lefties to hit for a .577 OPS of him in his career. Matz was second to Bumgarner in strikeouts and was fourth in WHIP this season. Texas isn't exceptionally prone to strikeouts, but Matz can rack them up in a hurry. He struck out 13 Twins earlier this season in just 6.1 innings.
Blake Snell, aka "Snellzilla," is the third dynamic lefty the Rays will send out against Texas. Snell was the best in the AL at limiting opposing home runs, and his 26.1 strikeout percentage was third in the AL. In fact, Snell, Bumgarner, and Matz are each in the top six in that category. Snell will walk guys, so Texas can wait him out and get him out of the game early. If he's on, that may be their best course of action.
Brent Honeywell should also get a start. He's a right-hander and a good one as he led the league in lowest BB/9. Honeywell has a dazzling screwball, though he doesn't have premium velocity. Combined with his willingness to attack the zone, he'll give up some home runs. Thanks to his screwball, he's far better against lefties than righties, making him one of the weirdest arms in the game.
Tampa Bay's bullpen has two lefties, neither are very good and neither work a lot of high-leverage innings. Jose Carlos Medina struck out just 34 in 53.2 innings, and Paul Fry gave up 10 home runs in 42 innings.
The rest of the Rays pen is right-handed. This means that Tampa Bay's bullpen is good at countering lineups that load up righties to face their starters. It also means that they're vulnerable to the Rangers best bats.
Ryan Stanek walked almost a batter an inning and has an ERA over 6.00. Danny Farquhar allowed 11 home runs this season, after yielding 15 last year. Jumbo Diaz will strike people out, but he had an 11.3 walk percentage. Dan Alavilla's was even higher at 12.2. There are a lot of walks to be gained if your patient against Tampa Bay's pen.
If Tampa Bay can survive its setup men, Alex Colome is one of the best closers in the game. He has a 3.78 ERA, but a FIP of 3.06 indicates how good his peripheries are. He's yielded just seven home runs, struck out over 31% of batters, and hasn't fallen in love with walks. He led the league in saves in 2018 and is coming off three straight years of an ERA of 2.14 or less. A high BABIP and some bad luck has ruined that streak, but he's still one of the best closers in baseball.
Tampa Bay has a strong defense everywhere but Second Base. Brad Miller is awful, but Andres Gimenez, Matt Chapman, and Eric Hosmer make a strong defensive infield. The outfield is also strong, especially when Mallex Smith is in left and Sanchez is in right.
If Texas needs to turn to its bench, Corey Seager has some pop off the bench, while Socrates Brito is mainly around for defensive purposes.
Season Series:
The two teams played six games, splitting them with each team winning a road series.
In early June in Texas, Kevin Kiermaier homered and drove in three in an 8-3 Rays win to open the season series where Blake Snell worked 7 innings allowing one run. Texas won the following game when Mitch Keller worked 6 shutout innings. Kevin Kiermaier scored four times in the rubber game of the series, including the game-winning run in the ninth after Jake Bauers doubled off Alex Claudio to tag him with a loss.
In Late July, after strong starts by Brent Honeywell and Shelby Miller, Texas took the opener of a three game series 3-2 in 13 innings. After Kiermaier tripled in the tenth, Claudio got Sanchez and Smith to ground out to strand a runner. After a two-base error put two in scoring position with nobody out in the eleventh inning, Texas pulled another miracle act. Claudio struck out Miller, walked Adames to load the bases, then Grimm came on to strike out McCarthy and get Kiermaier to fly out. In the twelfth, after Paul Goldschmidt singled, stole second, advanced to third on a fly ball, and scored on a sac fly, Tampa Bay got the first two men on in the bottom of the inning. Grimm then struck out Smith, Thomas Nido, and Gimenez to end one of the most exciting games of the season.
Texas got a win in its last at bat the next day after Rougned Odor hit a three-run home run off Alex Colome in the ninth to give Texas a 6-4 victory. Tampa salvaged a season split in the finale. Steven Mats allowed two runs in 8.1 innings, leaving with a man on base. Jumbo Diaz got Luis Guillorme to hit into a game-ending comebacker double play.
Playoff History:
These two teams met in 2018 with Texas winning in seven games. Texas got blown out in the opener and then got great pitching throughout the series. Cole Hamels went 13.1 innings allowing three runs, while Yu Darvish pitched a two-run Complete Game in a 10-2 Game 7 win. Of players still around, Claudio had a great series with 4.2 scoreless innings, while Goldschmidt homered twice and drove in six.
For Tampa Bay, Matz was the anti-Darvish, pitching great in the opener and then getting shelled the rest of the series. Only Kiermaier and Bauers hit above .292 for Tampa Bay as offense was hard to come by. Brad Miller hit .115 with a single RBI and nine strikeouts in a disappointing series.
Deciding Questions:
Will Texas get good pitching from Chen, Keller, or Miller?
Can Goldschmidt have a monster series against a staff designed to neutralize lefties?
Can Tampa Bay's lineup score runs if not putting up runs with home runs?
Prediction: In what should be a low-scoring series, Tampa has the better arms. If Stroman can't outduel Bumgarner in Game 1, I don't know where Texas angles their way to four wins. Rays in 6.
Cleveland Indians vs Oakland Athletics
The Cleveland Indians built a powerhouse with the best pitching staff in the league backed up by the second best offense. However, they suffered a huge loss last week when Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco each wend down with significant injuries. The Oakland Athletics got a heroic outing from their ace Brandon Finnegan as he shut down the vaunted Chicago White Sox offense in the Wild Card Game allowing Oakland to advance. However, Finnegan tore his flexor tendon, leaving Oakland without its best pitcher. With each team missing key starters, there will be pitchers who pitched in the bullpen taking on guys who spent the year in Triple A in a fascinating ALDS.
Athletics Hitting versus Indians Pitching:
The big story is the loss of Kluber and Carrasco for Cleveland. Kluber is second in the AL in ERA and will be on many voters Cy Young ballots, while Carrasco is an elite command arm with the seventh best ERA and the fourth best walk rate in the AL, after leading the league in the category in 2018. Cleveland had the best starting staff in the league with those, guys, but things are different without them.
It appears Cleveland will go to a three-man staff. Jose Quintana has been sensational this season, with an 18-8 record and a 3.13 ERA, and is a fine pitcher who should do well against a relatively pedestrian offense like Oakland's. Robert Stephenson and Robbie Ray are the other starters and they're far more vulnerable.
Stephenson had a 5.11 ERA last season and has a 3.97 mark this year in his age-27 season. He's a big strikeout arm, but he has more stuff than command, making him somewhat of a risk. He has a high FIP and was hit hard by lefties his season, and was hit hard by lefties AND righties in years past. Stephenson has looked dominant against some underwhelming offenses this year, including a five-hit shutout in September in Seattle, and a no-run, no-walk, nine-strikeout affair in 7.1 innings in Detroit. He also walked four batters in 4 innings against the Twins in his last start, and gave up five runs and three homers in 6 innings in Chicago against the White Sox on September 9th.
Stephenson may be the kind of guy who does well against bad offenses and gets hit hard by good ones. The good news for Cleveland? He has two starts against Oakland. In the first one, he allowed just two runs and struck out eight in 6.1 strong innings. In the other one? He worked 8 scoreless in Oakland.
Their other starter will be Robbie Ray. Ray was the International League MVP with 204 strikeouts and a 2.73 ERA in Triple-A, which is outstanding. Ray was also a starter who posted a 6.83 ERA in the majors with nine home runs in six starts, despite four of those starts coming against the Tigers and Royals. Ray is extremely home run prone and doesn't have great command. When his slider is working he can rack up strikeouts, but he misses frequently with giving up a barrage of extra base hits. Thankfully, Oakland has a pitcher-friendly park and a lineup that isn't great, but there's huge disaster potential.
On the other hand, Cleveland's bullpen is dominant. Andrew Miller is a setup reliever who put up 4 WAR. Four. WAR. Miller allowed one home run (to Miguel Cabrera) and struck out 120 batters in 79.1 innings. He has a 1.13 ERA and a 1.31 FIP. Lefties are hitting .117 off him. When Miller is in the game, you can skip ahead to the next half inning.
After 31 saves this year, Marc Melancon is second all-time. Melancon walked 20 batters last year. He walked 20 this year. He struck out 62 batters last year. He struck out 63 this year. He's reliable and consistent, wonderful qualities for a closer.
Carl Edwards Jr., and Shawn Armstrong are a pair of relief arms who have struck out over 13 batters per-nine-innings this season. The String Bean Slinger, Edwards Jr. is a little wild and homer prone, but he absolutely dominates righties, holding them to a .181 average this season. Armstrong is even wilder and even more homer prone, but holds both righties and lefties under .200. Edwards Jr. may be better against strings of righties, while Armstrong is more versatile.
Tyler Lyons is the middle-reliever from the left side Cleveland will use. He's had an up-and-down career, but he had a fine season this year. He posted a 2.51 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. He limited home runs this year, surrendering just five. He also walked just 12 batters in 61 innings, while striking out 68.
It's a bullpen that has a little bit of everything. Dominance, reliability, lefties, righties, and in the middle-innings, some variability. It posted the best bullpen ERA in the AL and may be needed to bail the team out.
Oakland had the 11th best offense in the league this season but dominated Eduardo Rodriguez and Chicago to advance to the ALDS. Oakland's lefty-mashers looked particularly good as Aristedes Aquino, Ryon Healy, and Carlos Santana combined to go 7-11 with seven runs and three driven in. Aquino struggled after a hot start, Santana struggled all year, and Healy struggled to get at bats. If those three are on their game, it gives Oakland a nice dynamic against left-handed pitching. Against righties, Anthony Santander gets back into the lineup to mash. With the caliber of Cleveland's injured righties, this may be a tradeoff Oakland is willing to take.
Ender Inciarte and Jesse Winker were moved to the bottom of the order against the lefty starter in the Wild Card Game, and each responded with a big game giving Oakland even more coverage against lefty starters. If they come out and produce against Quintana in Game 1, the whole tenor of the series changes.
Cleveland's a fine defensive team with the fewest passed balls and the fourth fewest steals allowed in the AL so Oakland won't be able to get the running game going or rely on mistakes. Of course, Oakland is 13th in home runs, so just because Ray or Armstrong groove some heaters, it doesn't mean Oakland is equipped to take advantage. It's a fascinating matchup where one can see Oakland knocking around Stephenson or Ray, or barely being able to touch them depending on whether Oakland's power bats show up.
Indians Hitting Versus Athletics Pitching:
Cleveland was second in runs scored, and the only reason they weren't first was Andrew Benintendi's brlliance. Cleveland led the AL in home runs and were third in average and OBP as they crush the ball. Each of their regulars hit 20 home runs or more. Five hit 30 or more, and their ninth place hitter hit 41. Only six players in the entire league hit more home runs than ninth place hitter Giancarlo Stanton.
This gives you a sense of the scope of Cleveland's lineup.
The offense is incredibly versatile and evenly distributed as a result. The difference from their best hitter to their eighth best hitter isn't incredibly steep. The one thing they do have is a spectacular offensive shortstop. Much as Francisco Lindor made Cleveland tick when he was on the Indians, Addison Russell has developed into a superstar in his own right. Russell hit .307 with 30 home runs and 103 RBIs as a shortstop. His ability to take that leap and become a power hitter who gets on at a .300 clip, and hits lefties and righties equally gives Cleveland an anchor they can count on to always produce.
Cleveland's regular lineup only features two pure left-handed hitters. In a postseason filled with teams weak to lefties, Cleveland is the rare team that crushes them. They're still tied for second in AL OPS against righties, but they have a 0.29 point lead in OPS against lefties. Even Cleveland's lefties hit lefties. Evan Skoug hit 14 of his 35 home runs against lefties in almost half as many at bats. Potential Rookie-of-the Year Mike Papi had an .817 OPS against lefties as a lefty. These are the hitters vulnerable to lefties.
Cleveland struck out the second most times in baseball. Considering Oakland's park may help keep fly balls from turning into home runs, it seems that the prescription for Oakland is to feature right-handed pitchers who will strike hitters out. After Brandon Finnegan's tragic injury in the Wild Card, at least Oakland can try to use that strategy to win the series.
Fortunately, Oakland has a staff that can exploit that. Jharel Cotton led baseball in strikeout rate with a 28% mark this season. He has an electric fastball and a devastating changeup that neutralizes lefties. His curveball and slider are pretty pedestrian so he actually has a higher strikeout rate against lefties than righties, but having two breaking options, a mid-90s heater, and a changeup he sometimes throws to righties has helped give him an out to same-side hitters.
Frankie Montas had a strikeout rate of 30.2%, but he spent time in the bullpen inflating those numbers. Still, as a starter, he struck out just a tick under 10 batters-per-nine. Montas was dreadful before this season, with a 5.54 ERA in 2018 followed up with a 6.71 mark last year. He cleaned out some bone spurs in his elbow last year, and now pain free, was able to air out his big, upper 90s fastball. Montas has also continued to refine his changeups and he's always had a tight slider. Montas' issue was never stuff though. He still has trouble with his command, and doesn't always get the ball where he wants it to go. However, as it's now free and easy for him to reach 98 on the gun, there's a lot more margin for error.
It's unclear who'll get the other spot in the rotation. Jesse Hahn and Dan Straily are the two candidates. Hahn, unlike the rest of Oakland's staff, isn't a strikeout artist. He has good control, doesn't give up too much loud contact, and trusts his defense. He went 12-9 with a 3.97 ERA, which is solid, though he actually was much worse against righties than lefties this year.
Straily, meanwhile, is a similar version of Hahn. Straily has a touch more strikeouts and a touch more walks, as he's a little less dependent on his defense. He's been homer prone in the past, but has kept the ball in the yard this year. He likely has more strikeout upside and a little more risk, where Hahn is more of a known quantity.
Oakland's bullpen is big on righties, but only a few have good strikeout numbers. Bobby Wahl is a high strikeout guy as the closer, and J.B. Wendelken is a setup man with a live arm. Liam Hendricks becomes important in this series. Hendricks has a paltry walk rate, which is how he's earned his bones. He's been a high strikeout arm in the past before, as recently as last year when he fanned 67 in 60 innings, but he only fanned 58 in 69 innings this year. He also allowed 12 home runs. He has a very low BABIP this year of .253, which is not indicative of career marks. There's a fear that Cleveland can light him up within the zone.
Oakland's defense is very average, with no position ranking in the top or bottom eight in zone rating this season. Cleveland is second in the AL in BABIP, so shy of strikeouts and good defense, it'll be hard to stop them from getting good swings and getting base hits.
Season Series:
Cleveland won the season 5-2, splitting a four game set at home in June before sweeping in Oakland after the All Star Break. Oakland won the first two games in very low-scoring matchups. Finnegan and two relief arms combined on a one-hitter in the opener, whereas strong pitching by Cotton and a key error by Yangervis Solarte allowed Oakland to follow up with a second win.
Cleveland scored six runs in the eighth inning to take the third game 10-4. Sam Travis had a huge three-run home run as Ryan Dull and Wendelken fell apart. J.D. Martinez had a three-run home run off Dull in the eighth inning of the finale, giving Cleveland a comeback win and a split in an exciting series.
Felix Hernandez, Andrew Miller, Robert Stephenson, and Marc Melancon combined on back-to-back shutouts to open the second half of the season as Oakland's offense continued its All Star Break into the weekend. Giancarlo Stanton had a two-run, game-tying double in the ninth inning of the finale, beofre Nick Castellanos took Liam Hendricks deep in extra innings as Cleveland continued its assault of Oakland's pen to win in 10 innings.
Oakland never scored more than four runs in the three games.
Deciding Questions:
Is Oakland's bullpen dynamic enough to stop a potent Cleveland offense from coming up with big hits? It wasn't during the regular season.
Can Oakland's bats take advantage of Stephenson and Ray before the Indians go to their bullpen?
Will the A's be able to jump Quintana like they did Eduardo Rodriguez? It's a decent lineup against lefties and Quintana is left-handed.
Prediction: While I don't trust Ray and Stephenson, I trust Cleveland's bullpen and I trust Cleveland's lineup. I can see a lot of comeback wins breaking Oakland's heart. Indians in 5.
The Texas Rangers started the season off terribly as they seemingly always do, going 0-8 before rebounding and winning the AL West. The Tampa Bay Rays started the season off terribly, going 3-11 and 13-23 before righting the ship and winning the AL East. These two squads are no strangers to the playoffs, and no strangers to making their fans sweat in April. If their series is anything like their 2018 seven game classic, baseball fans will be in for a treat.
Rays Hitting versus Rangers Pitching:
Tampa Bay's offense on the whole was very middle of the pack. They were seventh in runs, seventh in homers, seventh in steals. Some would say that's misleading as the Rays play in a run-suppressing home park, but Tampa Bay actually hit almost .50 points higher in OPS at home than on the road.
The Rays offense is a bit unusual. In the past it was a two-pronged attack of Kevin Kiermaier and Casey Gillaspie. Kiermaier had a terrific season, but after fracturing his ankle last year, no longer appears to be the MVP candidate he used to be. He nonethless led the league in triples with 10, the second time he's led the league in that stat. He popped 22 home runs and had an OPS of .835. It's just that 3.7 WAR is far lower than 6.0.
Gillaspie, meanwhile was benched for much of this year. After a brutal start, Graham Stratford benched Gillaspie, only exhuming him very late in the year. Fortunately, Gillaspie was able to fix himself and he had a nice stretch run, carrying an OPS of .947 in September and hitting a pair of home runs in four October games.
While Gillaspie was finding his swing, Tampa Bay got key contributions from a pair of other players to stay afloat. Brad Miller's average fell apart, but he had 33 home runs. After a season devoid of power, Joe McCarthy had 26 long balls. Eric Hosmer pitched in with 23.
Judging from the names mentioned, Tampa Bay has a decent amount of left-handed power. However, their lineup is incredibly lopsided to the left, and as a result they hit .50 points of OPS better against righties than lefties. Thomas Nido and Matt Chapman are righties who have good power against left-handed pitching, but each gets on base at a sub-.300 clip.
Tampa Bay's saving grace is that Texas rotation is essentially two-deep with quality pitchers, and none are righties. Their one lefty starter, Wei-Yin Chen, had bounced between the majors, minors, and bullpen before this season, with stops in Miami, and Los Angeles before making one appearance for Texas last season. Chen made 23 starts for Texas this year, but with an ERA of 5.37. Chen may be needed to start against Tampa Bay, but how he fares is anybody's guess.
In the bullpen, Texas also has only one lefty and it's their closer, Alex Claudio. Claudio is excellent, he limits homers and walks and offset an increase in BABIP with a marked increase in his strikeout numbers this year. His 37 saves were third in the league, and against a lineup like Tampa Bay's, this makes baseball an eight-inning affair.
The rest of the matchups are where the fun lies. Marcus Stroman had a miserable time in Seattle's hopeless rotation to start the year, and went 1-9 with a 5.32 ERA. Once Texas rescued him, Stroman was rejuvenated. He went 11-3 with Texas with a 2.29 ERA and may have been the best pitcher in the American League. Stroman has the fifth best career FIP among AL pitchers as he's the total package. He limits home runs with one of the best HR/9 marks in baseball. He's very stingy with walks, with the 12th best career walk rate in the AL. Finally, he has a strong 22% strikeout rate, which is good amongst starters. While the strikeout rate isn't an ace's number, combined with the rest of what he offers makes him terrific. Before this year, Stroman had yielded OPS' between .714-.735 to lefties, but cut that number to .588 with Texas this year. How Stroman fares against Tampa Bay's lineup could determine the series.
2017 Cy Young Winner Rick Porcello will also take his turns in the rotation. A pitch-to-contact ground-pounder, Porcello's career 4.48 walk percentage is fifth all time among AL pitchers. He allows just one home run per nine innings, and his strikeout mark of 18.8% is just percentage points behind his 2017 career high. Tampa Bay wants to win by slugging the ball, but Porcello forces teams to win with balls-in-play. How that matchup plays out will be a lot of fun to observe.
The Rangers other rotation options are Shelby Miller or Mitch Keller. Miller has had one year in his career with an ERA under 4.35. He's 9-12 this season with an ERA of 6.08. He has just a 15% strikeout rate this year, and is an uninspiring option in the playoffs.
Keller is a Rule V pick who has had a successful rookie year in the majors. He's allowed just 15 home runs in 166 innings, perhaps his greatest attribute, and one that will play against Tampa Bay. With a good curveball and great changeup, he has the repertoire to work against a heavy lefty lineup, but he doesn't strike too many hitters out. In fact, he has the 11th-lowest strikeout rate in the AL, right behind Rick Porcello and ahead of Shelby Miller. In that case, Keller is Porcello-light and one's opinion on him might hinge on one's opinion of Porcello.
Texas has long had a good bullpen, and this year's is no exception. Everybody in the Rangers bullpen strikes out at least 10 batters per nine innings as hitters have to be prepared to deal with a variety of flamethrowers.
Matt Bush may be Texas' worst relief arm, and he often pitches the eighth inning. Bush still struck out 78 in 65 innings, but he allowed an .829 OPS to lefties as opposed to a .472 OPS to righties. This may not be his best matchup.
Sam Dyson is Texas' other setup reliever, and he turned in his fourth straight excellent season, with a 2.92 ERA in 64.2 innings. Bush struck out 71 batters and yielded only five home runs. His BABIP was high, but he didn't yield a lot of extra base hits. Dyson's sinker-slider-changeup repertoire works better against righties so he could be a big key to the series.
Justin Grimm and his curveball produced just six home runs and 87 strikeouts in 61.2 innings, continuing his terrific relief career, while Bruce Rondon rediscovered the control that abandoned him last year to post a fantastic 2.36 ERA with a 38% strikeout rate. Even their long man, Josh Staumont, and their righty short man, Keona Kela, struck out over 26% of hitters. Tampa Bay's ability to make contact will be tested late.
Texas' defense has been mostly fine, but has picked up with Luis Guillorme's replacing Corey Seager in the lineup. Guillorme's a standout fielder up the middle, which can only help pitchers like Procello and Keller who rely on contact so much.
Jake Bauers may or may not play with a sore elbow and strained abdominal muscle holding him back. If he can't go, rookie Jesus B. Sanchez had a .773 OPS and will go in his place.
Rangers Hitting versus Rays Pitching:
Texas had a good offense, but still scored their fewest runs in history. With Carlos Santana gone and Corey Seager not hitting as well as in years past, Texas lacked a little of the punch they had in seasons past.
Like seemingly every team, Texas was better against right-handed pitchers than left-handed pitchers, though not as drastically as other teams. Texas has a lot of left-handed hitters and with switch-hitters included, will only send two right-handed bats to the plate against left-handed arms. Their saving grace is that their best hitter is right-handed.
Paul Goldschmidt doesn't steal bases like he did when he was younger. He also doesn't quite have the same average. What he does have is a great eye and tremendous power. He had 41 home runs this season, a career high. to go with 106 walks. Goldschmidt destroys left-handed pitching, which is huge with so many lefties surrounding him in the lineup.
Behind Goldschmidt, Texas next five best hitters all do better against right-handers. La Cabra, Francisco Mejia, had another spectacular season and is honestly on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory. He led the league in average for the second season of his career, and topped 30 home runs for the second time. Against righties is where the switch-hitting Mejia shines. He's had at least a .929 OPS and 21 home runs against righties the last three seasons. To get that kind of production from a Catcher is such a boon to an offense.
Texas also is helped by Rougned Odor's return to health. After an injury-plagued 2019, Odor hit for an .821 OPS with 28 home runs. Like Mejia from the Catchers spot, Odor's production from the Second Base position gives Texas the luxury to focus on defense at other spots. Odor led AL Second Basemen in slugging, and is the all-time leader in home runs and RBIs for Second Basemen.
Texas carries Kyle Seager, a third baseman with 27 home runs and a .367 OBP, plus Corey Seager, who clubbed 37 doubles and 18 home runs. They were also helped by Kyle O'Hearn, who finally put everything together. After three middling seasons, O'Hearn smacked 28 home runs and 31 doubles to put together a power-forward .791 OPS. O'Hearn won't provide much defensive value, but he's yet another bat that will punish right-handed pitchers who leave fastballs over the plate.
Where Tampa Bay has an advantage is that the Rays have the second best staff in the league behind Chicago, and they have three outstanding lefties.
The Tampa Bay ace is Madison Bumgarner, a powerhouse ace who just captured the AL Triple Crown. Bumgarner led the league in innings for the third time. He led the league in wins for the second time, as well as strikeouts and WHIP. His 2.66 ERA allowed him to lead the league in ERA for the first time, and he also enjoyed his first WAR title with 7.7. Bumgarner's allowed more than three runs just four times this year, and allowed two runs or less in 8 innings or more in his last four starts.
Bumgarner had a track record of playoff excellence until he got destroyed by the Twins in the Wild Card Game last year. He's going to be out for revenge against the team that didn't resign him.
Steven Matz will also feature prominently, and the lefty allows opposing lefties to hit for a .577 OPS of him in his career. Matz was second to Bumgarner in strikeouts and was fourth in WHIP this season. Texas isn't exceptionally prone to strikeouts, but Matz can rack them up in a hurry. He struck out 13 Twins earlier this season in just 6.1 innings.
Blake Snell, aka "Snellzilla," is the third dynamic lefty the Rays will send out against Texas. Snell was the best in the AL at limiting opposing home runs, and his 26.1 strikeout percentage was third in the AL. In fact, Snell, Bumgarner, and Matz are each in the top six in that category. Snell will walk guys, so Texas can wait him out and get him out of the game early. If he's on, that may be their best course of action.
Brent Honeywell should also get a start. He's a right-hander and a good one as he led the league in lowest BB/9. Honeywell has a dazzling screwball, though he doesn't have premium velocity. Combined with his willingness to attack the zone, he'll give up some home runs. Thanks to his screwball, he's far better against lefties than righties, making him one of the weirdest arms in the game.
Tampa Bay's bullpen has two lefties, neither are very good and neither work a lot of high-leverage innings. Jose Carlos Medina struck out just 34 in 53.2 innings, and Paul Fry gave up 10 home runs in 42 innings.
The rest of the Rays pen is right-handed. This means that Tampa Bay's bullpen is good at countering lineups that load up righties to face their starters. It also means that they're vulnerable to the Rangers best bats.
Ryan Stanek walked almost a batter an inning and has an ERA over 6.00. Danny Farquhar allowed 11 home runs this season, after yielding 15 last year. Jumbo Diaz will strike people out, but he had an 11.3 walk percentage. Dan Alavilla's was even higher at 12.2. There are a lot of walks to be gained if your patient against Tampa Bay's pen.
If Tampa Bay can survive its setup men, Alex Colome is one of the best closers in the game. He has a 3.78 ERA, but a FIP of 3.06 indicates how good his peripheries are. He's yielded just seven home runs, struck out over 31% of batters, and hasn't fallen in love with walks. He led the league in saves in 2018 and is coming off three straight years of an ERA of 2.14 or less. A high BABIP and some bad luck has ruined that streak, but he's still one of the best closers in baseball.
Tampa Bay has a strong defense everywhere but Second Base. Brad Miller is awful, but Andres Gimenez, Matt Chapman, and Eric Hosmer make a strong defensive infield. The outfield is also strong, especially when Mallex Smith is in left and Sanchez is in right.
If Texas needs to turn to its bench, Corey Seager has some pop off the bench, while Socrates Brito is mainly around for defensive purposes.
Season Series:
The two teams played six games, splitting them with each team winning a road series.
In early June in Texas, Kevin Kiermaier homered and drove in three in an 8-3 Rays win to open the season series where Blake Snell worked 7 innings allowing one run. Texas won the following game when Mitch Keller worked 6 shutout innings. Kevin Kiermaier scored four times in the rubber game of the series, including the game-winning run in the ninth after Jake Bauers doubled off Alex Claudio to tag him with a loss.
In Late July, after strong starts by Brent Honeywell and Shelby Miller, Texas took the opener of a three game series 3-2 in 13 innings. After Kiermaier tripled in the tenth, Claudio got Sanchez and Smith to ground out to strand a runner. After a two-base error put two in scoring position with nobody out in the eleventh inning, Texas pulled another miracle act. Claudio struck out Miller, walked Adames to load the bases, then Grimm came on to strike out McCarthy and get Kiermaier to fly out. In the twelfth, after Paul Goldschmidt singled, stole second, advanced to third on a fly ball, and scored on a sac fly, Tampa Bay got the first two men on in the bottom of the inning. Grimm then struck out Smith, Thomas Nido, and Gimenez to end one of the most exciting games of the season.
Texas got a win in its last at bat the next day after Rougned Odor hit a three-run home run off Alex Colome in the ninth to give Texas a 6-4 victory. Tampa salvaged a season split in the finale. Steven Mats allowed two runs in 8.1 innings, leaving with a man on base. Jumbo Diaz got Luis Guillorme to hit into a game-ending comebacker double play.
Playoff History:
These two teams met in 2018 with Texas winning in seven games. Texas got blown out in the opener and then got great pitching throughout the series. Cole Hamels went 13.1 innings allowing three runs, while Yu Darvish pitched a two-run Complete Game in a 10-2 Game 7 win. Of players still around, Claudio had a great series with 4.2 scoreless innings, while Goldschmidt homered twice and drove in six.
For Tampa Bay, Matz was the anti-Darvish, pitching great in the opener and then getting shelled the rest of the series. Only Kiermaier and Bauers hit above .292 for Tampa Bay as offense was hard to come by. Brad Miller hit .115 with a single RBI and nine strikeouts in a disappointing series.
Deciding Questions:
Will Texas get good pitching from Chen, Keller, or Miller?
Can Goldschmidt have a monster series against a staff designed to neutralize lefties?
Can Tampa Bay's lineup score runs if not putting up runs with home runs?
Prediction: In what should be a low-scoring series, Tampa has the better arms. If Stroman can't outduel Bumgarner in Game 1, I don't know where Texas angles their way to four wins. Rays in 6.
Cleveland Indians vs Oakland Athletics
The Cleveland Indians built a powerhouse with the best pitching staff in the league backed up by the second best offense. However, they suffered a huge loss last week when Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco each wend down with significant injuries. The Oakland Athletics got a heroic outing from their ace Brandon Finnegan as he shut down the vaunted Chicago White Sox offense in the Wild Card Game allowing Oakland to advance. However, Finnegan tore his flexor tendon, leaving Oakland without its best pitcher. With each team missing key starters, there will be pitchers who pitched in the bullpen taking on guys who spent the year in Triple A in a fascinating ALDS.
Athletics Hitting versus Indians Pitching:
The big story is the loss of Kluber and Carrasco for Cleveland. Kluber is second in the AL in ERA and will be on many voters Cy Young ballots, while Carrasco is an elite command arm with the seventh best ERA and the fourth best walk rate in the AL, after leading the league in the category in 2018. Cleveland had the best starting staff in the league with those, guys, but things are different without them.
It appears Cleveland will go to a three-man staff. Jose Quintana has been sensational this season, with an 18-8 record and a 3.13 ERA, and is a fine pitcher who should do well against a relatively pedestrian offense like Oakland's. Robert Stephenson and Robbie Ray are the other starters and they're far more vulnerable.
Stephenson had a 5.11 ERA last season and has a 3.97 mark this year in his age-27 season. He's a big strikeout arm, but he has more stuff than command, making him somewhat of a risk. He has a high FIP and was hit hard by lefties his season, and was hit hard by lefties AND righties in years past. Stephenson has looked dominant against some underwhelming offenses this year, including a five-hit shutout in September in Seattle, and a no-run, no-walk, nine-strikeout affair in 7.1 innings in Detroit. He also walked four batters in 4 innings against the Twins in his last start, and gave up five runs and three homers in 6 innings in Chicago against the White Sox on September 9th.
Stephenson may be the kind of guy who does well against bad offenses and gets hit hard by good ones. The good news for Cleveland? He has two starts against Oakland. In the first one, he allowed just two runs and struck out eight in 6.1 strong innings. In the other one? He worked 8 scoreless in Oakland.
Their other starter will be Robbie Ray. Ray was the International League MVP with 204 strikeouts and a 2.73 ERA in Triple-A, which is outstanding. Ray was also a starter who posted a 6.83 ERA in the majors with nine home runs in six starts, despite four of those starts coming against the Tigers and Royals. Ray is extremely home run prone and doesn't have great command. When his slider is working he can rack up strikeouts, but he misses frequently with giving up a barrage of extra base hits. Thankfully, Oakland has a pitcher-friendly park and a lineup that isn't great, but there's huge disaster potential.
On the other hand, Cleveland's bullpen is dominant. Andrew Miller is a setup reliever who put up 4 WAR. Four. WAR. Miller allowed one home run (to Miguel Cabrera) and struck out 120 batters in 79.1 innings. He has a 1.13 ERA and a 1.31 FIP. Lefties are hitting .117 off him. When Miller is in the game, you can skip ahead to the next half inning.
After 31 saves this year, Marc Melancon is second all-time. Melancon walked 20 batters last year. He walked 20 this year. He struck out 62 batters last year. He struck out 63 this year. He's reliable and consistent, wonderful qualities for a closer.
Carl Edwards Jr., and Shawn Armstrong are a pair of relief arms who have struck out over 13 batters per-nine-innings this season. The String Bean Slinger, Edwards Jr. is a little wild and homer prone, but he absolutely dominates righties, holding them to a .181 average this season. Armstrong is even wilder and even more homer prone, but holds both righties and lefties under .200. Edwards Jr. may be better against strings of righties, while Armstrong is more versatile.
Tyler Lyons is the middle-reliever from the left side Cleveland will use. He's had an up-and-down career, but he had a fine season this year. He posted a 2.51 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. He limited home runs this year, surrendering just five. He also walked just 12 batters in 61 innings, while striking out 68.
It's a bullpen that has a little bit of everything. Dominance, reliability, lefties, righties, and in the middle-innings, some variability. It posted the best bullpen ERA in the AL and may be needed to bail the team out.
Oakland had the 11th best offense in the league this season but dominated Eduardo Rodriguez and Chicago to advance to the ALDS. Oakland's lefty-mashers looked particularly good as Aristedes Aquino, Ryon Healy, and Carlos Santana combined to go 7-11 with seven runs and three driven in. Aquino struggled after a hot start, Santana struggled all year, and Healy struggled to get at bats. If those three are on their game, it gives Oakland a nice dynamic against left-handed pitching. Against righties, Anthony Santander gets back into the lineup to mash. With the caliber of Cleveland's injured righties, this may be a tradeoff Oakland is willing to take.
Ender Inciarte and Jesse Winker were moved to the bottom of the order against the lefty starter in the Wild Card Game, and each responded with a big game giving Oakland even more coverage against lefty starters. If they come out and produce against Quintana in Game 1, the whole tenor of the series changes.
Cleveland's a fine defensive team with the fewest passed balls and the fourth fewest steals allowed in the AL so Oakland won't be able to get the running game going or rely on mistakes. Of course, Oakland is 13th in home runs, so just because Ray or Armstrong groove some heaters, it doesn't mean Oakland is equipped to take advantage. It's a fascinating matchup where one can see Oakland knocking around Stephenson or Ray, or barely being able to touch them depending on whether Oakland's power bats show up.
Indians Hitting Versus Athletics Pitching:
Cleveland was second in runs scored, and the only reason they weren't first was Andrew Benintendi's brlliance. Cleveland led the AL in home runs and were third in average and OBP as they crush the ball. Each of their regulars hit 20 home runs or more. Five hit 30 or more, and their ninth place hitter hit 41. Only six players in the entire league hit more home runs than ninth place hitter Giancarlo Stanton.
This gives you a sense of the scope of Cleveland's lineup.
The offense is incredibly versatile and evenly distributed as a result. The difference from their best hitter to their eighth best hitter isn't incredibly steep. The one thing they do have is a spectacular offensive shortstop. Much as Francisco Lindor made Cleveland tick when he was on the Indians, Addison Russell has developed into a superstar in his own right. Russell hit .307 with 30 home runs and 103 RBIs as a shortstop. His ability to take that leap and become a power hitter who gets on at a .300 clip, and hits lefties and righties equally gives Cleveland an anchor they can count on to always produce.
Cleveland's regular lineup only features two pure left-handed hitters. In a postseason filled with teams weak to lefties, Cleveland is the rare team that crushes them. They're still tied for second in AL OPS against righties, but they have a 0.29 point lead in OPS against lefties. Even Cleveland's lefties hit lefties. Evan Skoug hit 14 of his 35 home runs against lefties in almost half as many at bats. Potential Rookie-of-the Year Mike Papi had an .817 OPS against lefties as a lefty. These are the hitters vulnerable to lefties.
Cleveland struck out the second most times in baseball. Considering Oakland's park may help keep fly balls from turning into home runs, it seems that the prescription for Oakland is to feature right-handed pitchers who will strike hitters out. After Brandon Finnegan's tragic injury in the Wild Card, at least Oakland can try to use that strategy to win the series.
Fortunately, Oakland has a staff that can exploit that. Jharel Cotton led baseball in strikeout rate with a 28% mark this season. He has an electric fastball and a devastating changeup that neutralizes lefties. His curveball and slider are pretty pedestrian so he actually has a higher strikeout rate against lefties than righties, but having two breaking options, a mid-90s heater, and a changeup he sometimes throws to righties has helped give him an out to same-side hitters.
Frankie Montas had a strikeout rate of 30.2%, but he spent time in the bullpen inflating those numbers. Still, as a starter, he struck out just a tick under 10 batters-per-nine. Montas was dreadful before this season, with a 5.54 ERA in 2018 followed up with a 6.71 mark last year. He cleaned out some bone spurs in his elbow last year, and now pain free, was able to air out his big, upper 90s fastball. Montas has also continued to refine his changeups and he's always had a tight slider. Montas' issue was never stuff though. He still has trouble with his command, and doesn't always get the ball where he wants it to go. However, as it's now free and easy for him to reach 98 on the gun, there's a lot more margin for error.
It's unclear who'll get the other spot in the rotation. Jesse Hahn and Dan Straily are the two candidates. Hahn, unlike the rest of Oakland's staff, isn't a strikeout artist. He has good control, doesn't give up too much loud contact, and trusts his defense. He went 12-9 with a 3.97 ERA, which is solid, though he actually was much worse against righties than lefties this year.
Straily, meanwhile, is a similar version of Hahn. Straily has a touch more strikeouts and a touch more walks, as he's a little less dependent on his defense. He's been homer prone in the past, but has kept the ball in the yard this year. He likely has more strikeout upside and a little more risk, where Hahn is more of a known quantity.
Oakland's bullpen is big on righties, but only a few have good strikeout numbers. Bobby Wahl is a high strikeout guy as the closer, and J.B. Wendelken is a setup man with a live arm. Liam Hendricks becomes important in this series. Hendricks has a paltry walk rate, which is how he's earned his bones. He's been a high strikeout arm in the past before, as recently as last year when he fanned 67 in 60 innings, but he only fanned 58 in 69 innings this year. He also allowed 12 home runs. He has a very low BABIP this year of .253, which is not indicative of career marks. There's a fear that Cleveland can light him up within the zone.
Oakland's defense is very average, with no position ranking in the top or bottom eight in zone rating this season. Cleveland is second in the AL in BABIP, so shy of strikeouts and good defense, it'll be hard to stop them from getting good swings and getting base hits.
Season Series:
Cleveland won the season 5-2, splitting a four game set at home in June before sweeping in Oakland after the All Star Break. Oakland won the first two games in very low-scoring matchups. Finnegan and two relief arms combined on a one-hitter in the opener, whereas strong pitching by Cotton and a key error by Yangervis Solarte allowed Oakland to follow up with a second win.
Cleveland scored six runs in the eighth inning to take the third game 10-4. Sam Travis had a huge three-run home run as Ryan Dull and Wendelken fell apart. J.D. Martinez had a three-run home run off Dull in the eighth inning of the finale, giving Cleveland a comeback win and a split in an exciting series.
Felix Hernandez, Andrew Miller, Robert Stephenson, and Marc Melancon combined on back-to-back shutouts to open the second half of the season as Oakland's offense continued its All Star Break into the weekend. Giancarlo Stanton had a two-run, game-tying double in the ninth inning of the finale, beofre Nick Castellanos took Liam Hendricks deep in extra innings as Cleveland continued its assault of Oakland's pen to win in 10 innings.
Oakland never scored more than four runs in the three games.
Deciding Questions:
Is Oakland's bullpen dynamic enough to stop a potent Cleveland offense from coming up with big hits? It wasn't during the regular season.
Can Oakland's bats take advantage of Stephenson and Ray before the Indians go to their bullpen?
Will the A's be able to jump Quintana like they did Eduardo Rodriguez? It's a decent lineup against lefties and Quintana is left-handed.
Prediction: While I don't trust Ray and Stephenson, I trust Cleveland's bullpen and I trust Cleveland's lineup. I can see a lot of comeback wins breaking Oakland's heart. Indians in 5.