Post by Commissioner Erick on Feb 11, 2019 19:08:59 GMT -5
Chicago Cubs versus Philadelphia Phillies
The Chicago Cubs blitzed the National League in the regular season and blitzed the Washington Nationals in the NLDS, continuing a season where they've been able to bully virtually all their opponents into submission. Their NLCS opponent, however, is one of only two opponents the Cubs have played that they have a losing record against (Arizona being the other). The matchup is a classic case of an established power versus a youthful up-and-comer, as the Cubs can earn a second World Series berth in three years, while the Phillies can crash the World Series and with their youthful roster, usher in a dominant era.
Phillies Hitting versus Cubs Pitching:
The Phillies come into this matchup with the second best offense in the National League, and their success continued throughout the Division Series as they managed to take down the defending-champion Dodgers in seven games. They’ll be meeting their match in the NLCS however, as they go toe-to-toe against, statistically, the best pitching staff in baseball in the Chicago Cubs.
While the Cubs don’t boast anybody of Clayton Kershaw's caliber, one could easily argue all four potential playoff starters are better than the rest of the Dodger rotation they just faced. Leading the Cubs rotation is stud pitcher Kyle Hendriks, who is coming off a career season, finishing with a 2.48 ERA that led the PBA. In his lone start against Washington in the Division Series, he was Player of the Game as he pitched 6.1 innings while only allowing only one run along with four strikeouts. He has enjoyed this success due in large part to his ability to get left-handers out, which is advantageous against the lefty-heavy Phillies. He allowed just a .627 OPS to lefties this year, and also boasted a 0.5 HR/9 to lefties, which will come in handy against the monsters from Philadelphia.
Hendriks loves to pitch to contact and doesn’t allow many walks, so the Phillies will need to be aggressive in their approach and hope to find some holes in a stellar Chicago defense.
Like Hendriks, the rest of the rotation only pitched in one playoff game so far. The lefties in the rotation proved very successful as well, with Chris Sale and Jon Lester working 13.1 shutout innings in the postseason. Jake Arrieta, on the other hand, experienced some hiccups, lasting only 4.1 innings allowing eight hits, three earned runs, and four walks. This has been the trend for him lately as he has allowed 15 runs in his last three outings, giving up 10 walks in the process. This could be a possible mechanical issue he is dealing with, so the Phillies offense could very well feast on this opportunity.
Considering how the Philly offense is rolling right now, they should be able to capitalize on any weakness Mickey Moniak hit a blistering .484 with two dingers against the Dodgers in his MVP efforts. Not to be outdone, Odubel Herrera hit .464 with three homers and 10 RBI. Along with other powerhouses Max Schrock, Maikel Franco, and Seth Beer, the Cubs pitching staff may have met their match.
The Chicago bullpen is led as always by stud closer and fan-favorite “Bonkers” Carrizales. The 14 million-dollar-man finished first in saves and in WAR among relievers, as well as 2nd in ERA with a 1.54 mark. If the Cubs are to win this series, they will need Bonkers to pitch multiple innings, and pitch in tight-games that will ultimately decide the series. With a solid mix of middle relievers such as Dan Otero, Darren O’ Day, and A.J. Ramos, plus lefty-specialist Liriano, it should make for an intense matchup against Franco and Philadelphia's lefty sluggers. It’s possible the Cubs bullpen is too right-handed, as Liriano is the only lefty reliever and was not terribly effective this season.
Cubs Hitting versus Phillies Pitching:
Chicago’s depth was on display in the League Championship Series, as the Cubs dispatched the Nationals without a hint of trouble. Chicago popped a dozen homers, including three each from Freddie Freeman, Willson Contreras and Francisco Lindor. Xander Bogaerts nabbed series MVP honors, racking up nine hits in just 16 at bats. The Ryan Cordell experiment didn’t pay dividends, but he’s one of the few weak spots for a lineup that carried just two positional subs into the LCS. Mark Zagunis stepped in for Cordell and was a fine bat with a .294 average and two home runs during the NLDS.
The Cubs can mash, knocking out 280 home runs during the season. That’s likely to be the preferred approach against a Philadelphia staff that was among the league’s worst in giving up home runs during the regular season. However, the Cubs also strike out less than 20 percent of the time as a team and draw a walk in almost 11 percent of their trips to the plate, so they're not an undisciplined bunch of hackers. The Cubs feast on righties, which Philadelphia trots to the mound in bunches. Chicago had the league’s second-highest OPS versus right-handed pitching.
For Philadelphia to have a chance, the Phillies need a least a couple of strong, deep outings from Sixto Sanchez and Luke Weaver. Aaron Nola has been solid, but can’t go deep into games because OOTP won’t let anyone have nice things. Mike Leake knuckled down and produced a terrific outing in Game Four for the Phillies, allowing just two runs into the seventh inning and giving the Phils the chance to pull ahead in the eighth.
A revitalized bullpen has been the key for Philadelphia all year, but it floundered hard in games Five and Six against the Dodgers in the LCS. Vince Velasquez was so bad he got pulled from his role as closer, and Josh Fields couldn’t manage to inspire any confidence, failing to record a single out until his third appearance in the series. With starters not going much further than the fifth or sixth innings, the Phillies need the back end of the bullpen to do its job.
Season Series:
The Philadelphia Phillies took the season series 5-2. The teams split four games in Chicago during early May. The Cubs won a pair or blowouts bookending two Phillies wins in the middle two games. Aaron Nola and Luke Weaver were excellent in the two wins, while Pierre Johnson, Chris Sale, Jake Arrieta, and Kyle Hendrick failed to post quality starts.
In late August, Philadelphia had the series that announced themselves to the world, when they swept the Cubs in a three-game set. The Cubs scored six runs in the series as Freddie Freeman went 1-11 for the series. All three games were low scoring as the Phillies notched victories of 4-1, 5-2, and 4-3.
Maikel Franco has four home runs off Cubs pitching this year and Max Schrock has a .385 average. Mickey Moniak and Seth Beer have just five combined at bats, all by Moniak. All of the main Philadelphia arms did well in the series. The Cubs, meanwhile, saw all four of their main arms, Sale, Arrieta, Hendrick, and Jon Lester post ERAs of 5.68 or more. Xander Bogaerts did well, going .455/.556/.773, but Francisco Lindor and Freddie Freeman went a combined 10-58, with a combined two RBIs.
Deciding Questions:
Can Philadelphia's lefty-laden lineup do anything against Sale and Lester?
Will Chicago's right-handed bullpen be able to hold late leads against those same Philly lefties?
Does Philadelphia have the dominant staff needed to shut down Chicago's offense?
Prediction: The Cubs have very few weaknesses and the fact that they do so well against lefties gives them a huge advantage. I can see them putting up runs and slowing down Philadelphia easier than I can see Philadelphia succeeding. The Cubs take the pennant. Cubs in 5
Special thanks to Matt Grubs and Brandon Hillebrand who wrote most of this article.
The Chicago Cubs blitzed the National League in the regular season and blitzed the Washington Nationals in the NLDS, continuing a season where they've been able to bully virtually all their opponents into submission. Their NLCS opponent, however, is one of only two opponents the Cubs have played that they have a losing record against (Arizona being the other). The matchup is a classic case of an established power versus a youthful up-and-comer, as the Cubs can earn a second World Series berth in three years, while the Phillies can crash the World Series and with their youthful roster, usher in a dominant era.
Phillies Hitting versus Cubs Pitching:
The Phillies come into this matchup with the second best offense in the National League, and their success continued throughout the Division Series as they managed to take down the defending-champion Dodgers in seven games. They’ll be meeting their match in the NLCS however, as they go toe-to-toe against, statistically, the best pitching staff in baseball in the Chicago Cubs.
While the Cubs don’t boast anybody of Clayton Kershaw's caliber, one could easily argue all four potential playoff starters are better than the rest of the Dodger rotation they just faced. Leading the Cubs rotation is stud pitcher Kyle Hendriks, who is coming off a career season, finishing with a 2.48 ERA that led the PBA. In his lone start against Washington in the Division Series, he was Player of the Game as he pitched 6.1 innings while only allowing only one run along with four strikeouts. He has enjoyed this success due in large part to his ability to get left-handers out, which is advantageous against the lefty-heavy Phillies. He allowed just a .627 OPS to lefties this year, and also boasted a 0.5 HR/9 to lefties, which will come in handy against the monsters from Philadelphia.
Hendriks loves to pitch to contact and doesn’t allow many walks, so the Phillies will need to be aggressive in their approach and hope to find some holes in a stellar Chicago defense.
Like Hendriks, the rest of the rotation only pitched in one playoff game so far. The lefties in the rotation proved very successful as well, with Chris Sale and Jon Lester working 13.1 shutout innings in the postseason. Jake Arrieta, on the other hand, experienced some hiccups, lasting only 4.1 innings allowing eight hits, three earned runs, and four walks. This has been the trend for him lately as he has allowed 15 runs in his last three outings, giving up 10 walks in the process. This could be a possible mechanical issue he is dealing with, so the Phillies offense could very well feast on this opportunity.
Considering how the Philly offense is rolling right now, they should be able to capitalize on any weakness Mickey Moniak hit a blistering .484 with two dingers against the Dodgers in his MVP efforts. Not to be outdone, Odubel Herrera hit .464 with three homers and 10 RBI. Along with other powerhouses Max Schrock, Maikel Franco, and Seth Beer, the Cubs pitching staff may have met their match.
The Chicago bullpen is led as always by stud closer and fan-favorite “Bonkers” Carrizales. The 14 million-dollar-man finished first in saves and in WAR among relievers, as well as 2nd in ERA with a 1.54 mark. If the Cubs are to win this series, they will need Bonkers to pitch multiple innings, and pitch in tight-games that will ultimately decide the series. With a solid mix of middle relievers such as Dan Otero, Darren O’ Day, and A.J. Ramos, plus lefty-specialist Liriano, it should make for an intense matchup against Franco and Philadelphia's lefty sluggers. It’s possible the Cubs bullpen is too right-handed, as Liriano is the only lefty reliever and was not terribly effective this season.
Cubs Hitting versus Phillies Pitching:
Chicago’s depth was on display in the League Championship Series, as the Cubs dispatched the Nationals without a hint of trouble. Chicago popped a dozen homers, including three each from Freddie Freeman, Willson Contreras and Francisco Lindor. Xander Bogaerts nabbed series MVP honors, racking up nine hits in just 16 at bats. The Ryan Cordell experiment didn’t pay dividends, but he’s one of the few weak spots for a lineup that carried just two positional subs into the LCS. Mark Zagunis stepped in for Cordell and was a fine bat with a .294 average and two home runs during the NLDS.
The Cubs can mash, knocking out 280 home runs during the season. That’s likely to be the preferred approach against a Philadelphia staff that was among the league’s worst in giving up home runs during the regular season. However, the Cubs also strike out less than 20 percent of the time as a team and draw a walk in almost 11 percent of their trips to the plate, so they're not an undisciplined bunch of hackers. The Cubs feast on righties, which Philadelphia trots to the mound in bunches. Chicago had the league’s second-highest OPS versus right-handed pitching.
For Philadelphia to have a chance, the Phillies need a least a couple of strong, deep outings from Sixto Sanchez and Luke Weaver. Aaron Nola has been solid, but can’t go deep into games because OOTP won’t let anyone have nice things. Mike Leake knuckled down and produced a terrific outing in Game Four for the Phillies, allowing just two runs into the seventh inning and giving the Phils the chance to pull ahead in the eighth.
A revitalized bullpen has been the key for Philadelphia all year, but it floundered hard in games Five and Six against the Dodgers in the LCS. Vince Velasquez was so bad he got pulled from his role as closer, and Josh Fields couldn’t manage to inspire any confidence, failing to record a single out until his third appearance in the series. With starters not going much further than the fifth or sixth innings, the Phillies need the back end of the bullpen to do its job.
Season Series:
The Philadelphia Phillies took the season series 5-2. The teams split four games in Chicago during early May. The Cubs won a pair or blowouts bookending two Phillies wins in the middle two games. Aaron Nola and Luke Weaver were excellent in the two wins, while Pierre Johnson, Chris Sale, Jake Arrieta, and Kyle Hendrick failed to post quality starts.
In late August, Philadelphia had the series that announced themselves to the world, when they swept the Cubs in a three-game set. The Cubs scored six runs in the series as Freddie Freeman went 1-11 for the series. All three games were low scoring as the Phillies notched victories of 4-1, 5-2, and 4-3.
Maikel Franco has four home runs off Cubs pitching this year and Max Schrock has a .385 average. Mickey Moniak and Seth Beer have just five combined at bats, all by Moniak. All of the main Philadelphia arms did well in the series. The Cubs, meanwhile, saw all four of their main arms, Sale, Arrieta, Hendrick, and Jon Lester post ERAs of 5.68 or more. Xander Bogaerts did well, going .455/.556/.773, but Francisco Lindor and Freddie Freeman went a combined 10-58, with a combined two RBIs.
Deciding Questions:
Can Philadelphia's lefty-laden lineup do anything against Sale and Lester?
Will Chicago's right-handed bullpen be able to hold late leads against those same Philly lefties?
Does Philadelphia have the dominant staff needed to shut down Chicago's offense?
Prediction: The Cubs have very few weaknesses and the fact that they do so well against lefties gives them a huge advantage. I can see them putting up runs and slowing down Philadelphia easier than I can see Philadelphia succeeding. The Cubs take the pennant. Cubs in 5
Special thanks to Matt Grubs and Brandon Hillebrand who wrote most of this article.