Post by Commissioner Erick on Apr 29, 2019 12:06:30 GMT -5
Chicago Cubs (13-12) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (15-11)
CHC: Chris Beck (1-0, 4.82)
PIT: Stephen Brault (1-3, 6.07)
Despite injuries and trades, the Pittsburgh Pirates have gotten off to a fast start and sit second in the NL Central with a 15-11 record. With a starting rotation in shambles and an offense that isn't hitting, the Chicago Cubs sit a disappointing 13-12.
The two teams will face off in the Game of the Week with the Pirates looking to strike while the Cubs are weak.
The Pirates have mostly taken advantage of an easy schedule, only facing two teams more than a game over .500. Pittsburgh took two of three from the Cardinals to begin the season, but had trouble scoring in three of four games dropping a series in Colorado. A series win over the Cubs would add to their credibility.
The Pirates are still succeeding doing traditional Mike McAvoy things. Pittsburgh leads the league in strikeout rate by hitters by a healthy margin and sacrifice bunts. Their pitchers strike out the fewest hitters, but get the most ground balls. However, this year, the Pirates have hit a bit more home runs than their versions of previous years.
Josh Bell has a healthy seven home runs and his 35 driven in are the most in the NL by a wide margin over Nomar Mazara and Mike Trout. Bell has consistently been one of the most reliable offensive performers in the PBA, and that reliability has him up to third all time on the PBA RBI leaderboards. Bell is also unique in how patient he is and how we won't strike out. He's one of only two players in PBA history with at least 100 home runs, a walk rate above 10% and a strikeout rate below 14%, along with Andrew Benintendi.
Bell's driven in so many runs because the top of Pittsburgh's lineup has done its job. Gregory Polanco continues to get better with age and now has his average up to .359 this season with a .445 OBP. Polanco has never been one for plate discipline, but he has 16 walks to go with 16 strikeouts this year. Unsurprisingly, that ability to get on base and the fortune of hitting ahead of Bell has Polanco second in the NL in runs.
Austin Meadows came into his own last year and has continued to bloom. Meadows will never be a huge home run threat it appears, but he's always banged out 40+ doubles in a year, and he led the league in triples last season with 11. He's batting .302 in the early going with eight doubles already. Meadows isn't running like he did last year when he stole 42 bases, but he hasn't needed to run with the production of the hitters behind him. Once a former top prospect, and then a useful, but marginal starter, Meadows is fulfilling the potential he had when OSA named him the #10 prospect in baseball back in 2017 and 2018.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Kevin Newman is off to a great start after a horrendous 2020. Newman had value in the early PBA years as an extreme-contact bat who would carry averages in the .290s, with a little bit of gap power and speed. Newman maxed his attributes in 2019 and exploded with a .307 average, 12 home runs, 40 doubles, 14 steals in 15 attempts, and the third lowest strikeout rate in the NL.
Instead of regressing back to 2017 or 2018 levels, Newman cratered last year. His average dropped to .258, he only walked 25 times giving him a .308 OBP, and he smacked just a pair of home runs. He still stole a few bases and he never struck out, but a .258 empty average as a subpar defender resulted in a WAR of -0.5. If Newman played a few more games as a DH instead of shortstop so his primary position would have been a designated hitter, his WAR would have been disastrous.
Fortunately for the Pirates, Newman has rebounded this year. He still has extremely low strikeout rates, but his average is up to .310. He has two triples after recording just two last year, and his four home runs double his 2020 total. He also has three steals this year. At the top of the order, on a team that values contact and getting on base for consistent hitters below him, his ability to set the table has driven Pittsburgh's success.
The Pirates will take on a Cubs team at their lowest. Last we saw them Jake Arrieta shut down the Cardinals and had the Cubs on top of the NL Central. Since then, they've lost 10 of 12 games. Four starters are out right now resulting in the Cubs reaching deep into their organization for answers.
Tonight, that means Chris Beck continues his rookie season. The 30-year old has had a baseball odyssey to begin his career. Previously in the White Sox system, he was a mediocre swingman in 2017 who turned in 7 innings of one-run ball in the playoffs that year for Chicago's Triple-A affiliate in Charlotte. In 2018 Beck turned into a good reliever with an ERA of 2.89 and the Charlotte Knights won a Triple-A Championship. Their parent club also won a title that year, but with the talent depth in the organization combined with Beck being 27, they allowed him to test free agency.
He went overseas, pitching with Hiroshima in the Japanese League, turning in a great second half in 2020 resulting in an All-Star appearance. Beck was brought back to the United States by the Cubs as a depth piece for their Triple A club, and now finds himself back in Chicago pitching for a team with title aspirations.
Beck had a stirring debut pitching in St. Louis against the Cardinals, holding the Redbirds scoreless in 2.2 innings, walking nobody and fanning six. His first major league start was his last one where he struggled through 5.1 innings against the Brewers. He allowed nine hits and walked three, striking out only one. However, he allowed just three runs and since the Cubs put up 13 runs, got his first big league win.
Armed with four pitches and a mustache, Beck has big league command of four pitches, which allows him to nibble and keep hitters off balance. He doesn't have spectacular command though, nor does he get a lot of bite with his pitches, leaving him prone to the long ball. This is why it took four injuries to make the majors. Against a team that doesn't hit the long ball, this may be the perfect opponent.
The Pirates' ability to put the bat on the ball no matter what will strain a defense that has been surprisingly awful. The Cubs have the worst Zone Rating in the league after being a stellar defensive club for years. Kris Bryant has been bad in center field, having trouble making all but the most routine plays, and Mark Zagunis and Yoenis Cespedes haven't been good enough to cover for him. If the Pirates can get the ball to the outfield, they may be able to keep BABIPing their way to victory.
Questions for the GM's:
For Brandon Hillebrand, this is likely Chris Beck's last week in the majors. What have you thought of him so far?
With a pitcher like Beck who lacks great stuff, have you thought of getting more defense out there to help him out?
Your team has played well below expectations, but this also may be a worst case scenario for you and you're still over .500. How worried are you after this recent stretch?
For Mike McAvoy, you've made a lot of changes to your staff before this season. Neil Huntington was fired as Assistant GM with Brian Cashman replacing him. Bench Coach Michael Lin was replaced with Miguel Centena. You allowed Greg S. Smith to leave as Scout, replacing him with unproven Terry Steinbach. How do you feel these moves have improved your team?
You have a mandate from ownership to cut salary at the same time your team is looking like an early contender for the NL Central. Will you listen to ownership's mandate and get down to no more than $5 million overbudget, or will you stay the course and hope to win the division?
Adam Frazier isn't hitting right now. What are your options if he continues to struggle?
TRIVIA: Josh Harrison had 5.0 WAR in 2017. Since then, what player has had the most WAR in a season for the Pirates among primary second basemen>
CHC: Chris Beck (1-0, 4.82)
PIT: Stephen Brault (1-3, 6.07)
Despite injuries and trades, the Pittsburgh Pirates have gotten off to a fast start and sit second in the NL Central with a 15-11 record. With a starting rotation in shambles and an offense that isn't hitting, the Chicago Cubs sit a disappointing 13-12.
The two teams will face off in the Game of the Week with the Pirates looking to strike while the Cubs are weak.
The Pirates have mostly taken advantage of an easy schedule, only facing two teams more than a game over .500. Pittsburgh took two of three from the Cardinals to begin the season, but had trouble scoring in three of four games dropping a series in Colorado. A series win over the Cubs would add to their credibility.
The Pirates are still succeeding doing traditional Mike McAvoy things. Pittsburgh leads the league in strikeout rate by hitters by a healthy margin and sacrifice bunts. Their pitchers strike out the fewest hitters, but get the most ground balls. However, this year, the Pirates have hit a bit more home runs than their versions of previous years.
Josh Bell has a healthy seven home runs and his 35 driven in are the most in the NL by a wide margin over Nomar Mazara and Mike Trout. Bell has consistently been one of the most reliable offensive performers in the PBA, and that reliability has him up to third all time on the PBA RBI leaderboards. Bell is also unique in how patient he is and how we won't strike out. He's one of only two players in PBA history with at least 100 home runs, a walk rate above 10% and a strikeout rate below 14%, along with Andrew Benintendi.
Bell's driven in so many runs because the top of Pittsburgh's lineup has done its job. Gregory Polanco continues to get better with age and now has his average up to .359 this season with a .445 OBP. Polanco has never been one for plate discipline, but he has 16 walks to go with 16 strikeouts this year. Unsurprisingly, that ability to get on base and the fortune of hitting ahead of Bell has Polanco second in the NL in runs.
Austin Meadows came into his own last year and has continued to bloom. Meadows will never be a huge home run threat it appears, but he's always banged out 40+ doubles in a year, and he led the league in triples last season with 11. He's batting .302 in the early going with eight doubles already. Meadows isn't running like he did last year when he stole 42 bases, but he hasn't needed to run with the production of the hitters behind him. Once a former top prospect, and then a useful, but marginal starter, Meadows is fulfilling the potential he had when OSA named him the #10 prospect in baseball back in 2017 and 2018.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Kevin Newman is off to a great start after a horrendous 2020. Newman had value in the early PBA years as an extreme-contact bat who would carry averages in the .290s, with a little bit of gap power and speed. Newman maxed his attributes in 2019 and exploded with a .307 average, 12 home runs, 40 doubles, 14 steals in 15 attempts, and the third lowest strikeout rate in the NL.
Instead of regressing back to 2017 or 2018 levels, Newman cratered last year. His average dropped to .258, he only walked 25 times giving him a .308 OBP, and he smacked just a pair of home runs. He still stole a few bases and he never struck out, but a .258 empty average as a subpar defender resulted in a WAR of -0.5. If Newman played a few more games as a DH instead of shortstop so his primary position would have been a designated hitter, his WAR would have been disastrous.
Fortunately for the Pirates, Newman has rebounded this year. He still has extremely low strikeout rates, but his average is up to .310. He has two triples after recording just two last year, and his four home runs double his 2020 total. He also has three steals this year. At the top of the order, on a team that values contact and getting on base for consistent hitters below him, his ability to set the table has driven Pittsburgh's success.
The Pirates will take on a Cubs team at their lowest. Last we saw them Jake Arrieta shut down the Cardinals and had the Cubs on top of the NL Central. Since then, they've lost 10 of 12 games. Four starters are out right now resulting in the Cubs reaching deep into their organization for answers.
Tonight, that means Chris Beck continues his rookie season. The 30-year old has had a baseball odyssey to begin his career. Previously in the White Sox system, he was a mediocre swingman in 2017 who turned in 7 innings of one-run ball in the playoffs that year for Chicago's Triple-A affiliate in Charlotte. In 2018 Beck turned into a good reliever with an ERA of 2.89 and the Charlotte Knights won a Triple-A Championship. Their parent club also won a title that year, but with the talent depth in the organization combined with Beck being 27, they allowed him to test free agency.
He went overseas, pitching with Hiroshima in the Japanese League, turning in a great second half in 2020 resulting in an All-Star appearance. Beck was brought back to the United States by the Cubs as a depth piece for their Triple A club, and now finds himself back in Chicago pitching for a team with title aspirations.
Beck had a stirring debut pitching in St. Louis against the Cardinals, holding the Redbirds scoreless in 2.2 innings, walking nobody and fanning six. His first major league start was his last one where he struggled through 5.1 innings against the Brewers. He allowed nine hits and walked three, striking out only one. However, he allowed just three runs and since the Cubs put up 13 runs, got his first big league win.
Armed with four pitches and a mustache, Beck has big league command of four pitches, which allows him to nibble and keep hitters off balance. He doesn't have spectacular command though, nor does he get a lot of bite with his pitches, leaving him prone to the long ball. This is why it took four injuries to make the majors. Against a team that doesn't hit the long ball, this may be the perfect opponent.
The Pirates' ability to put the bat on the ball no matter what will strain a defense that has been surprisingly awful. The Cubs have the worst Zone Rating in the league after being a stellar defensive club for years. Kris Bryant has been bad in center field, having trouble making all but the most routine plays, and Mark Zagunis and Yoenis Cespedes haven't been good enough to cover for him. If the Pirates can get the ball to the outfield, they may be able to keep BABIPing their way to victory.
Questions for the GM's:
For Brandon Hillebrand, this is likely Chris Beck's last week in the majors. What have you thought of him so far?
With a pitcher like Beck who lacks great stuff, have you thought of getting more defense out there to help him out?
Your team has played well below expectations, but this also may be a worst case scenario for you and you're still over .500. How worried are you after this recent stretch?
For Mike McAvoy, you've made a lot of changes to your staff before this season. Neil Huntington was fired as Assistant GM with Brian Cashman replacing him. Bench Coach Michael Lin was replaced with Miguel Centena. You allowed Greg S. Smith to leave as Scout, replacing him with unproven Terry Steinbach. How do you feel these moves have improved your team?
You have a mandate from ownership to cut salary at the same time your team is looking like an early contender for the NL Central. Will you listen to ownership's mandate and get down to no more than $5 million overbudget, or will you stay the course and hope to win the division?
Adam Frazier isn't hitting right now. What are your options if he continues to struggle?
TRIVIA: Josh Harrison had 5.0 WAR in 2017. Since then, what player has had the most WAR in a season for the Pirates among primary second basemen>